MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Wednesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. WSH - Max Scherzer (No. 9 out of 299)

2. SD - Dinelson Lamet (No. 17)

3. ATL - Ian Anderson (No. 35)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. BAL - Bruce Zimmermann (No. 278 out of 299)

2. ARI - Merrill Kelly (No. 253)

3. TB - Michael Wacha (No. 230)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. SF at PHI - Adam Hamari (No. 2 out of 117)

2. TOR at BOS - Doug Eddings (No. 5)

3. HOU at COL - Ryan Blakney (No. 14)

Today's Least Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. TB at KC - Mark Wegner (No. 111 out of 117)

2. TEX at LAA - Jordan Baker (No. 99)

3. STL at WSH - David Rackley (No. 92)

Today's Hottest Games

1. BAL at MIA (72 degrees)

2. SF at PHI (66 degrees)

3. TEX at LAA (63 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. HOU at COL (37 degrees)

2. CWS at CLE (39 degrees)

3. PIT at DET (39 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

1. Boston Red Sox (6.00 Runs)

2. Toronto Blue Jays (5.75)

3. Houston Astros (5.58)

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

1. Pittsburgh Pirates (3.07 Runs)

2. Detroit Tigers (3.26)

3. Milwaukee Brewers (3.50)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

1. Blue Jays at Red Sox (11.75 Runs | O/U: 10)

2. Braves at Yankees (10.39 | O/U: 8.5)

3. Astros at Rockies (10.20 | O/U: 10)

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

1. Pirates at Tigers (6.52 Runs | O/U: Not Released Yet)

2. Brewers at Padres (7.81 | O/U: 7.5)

3. Cardinals at Nationals (7.88 | O/U: 7.5)

Today's Biggest Line Movements

1. Miami Marlins -160 vs. Orioles (opened -140)

2. Washington Nationals -160 vs. Cardinals (opened -180)

3. Cincinnati Reds -155 vs. Diamondbacks (opened -135)

Games With The Most Lopsided Action

1. Yankees (69% Handle) vs Braves (31% Handle)

2. Rays (68%) vs Royals (32%)

3. Astros (67%) vs Rockies (33%)

Most Profitable Markets ATS

1. Red Sox Run Line (15-3, 14.20 Units, 60% ROI)

2. Cubs Team Total Under (14-2, 12.00 Units, 65% ROI)

3. Blue Jays Game Total Under (12-5, 6.50 Units, 34% ROI)

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

Colorado Rockies (5-12) vs. Houston Astros (7-9)

10 O/U: | COL + 125 | HOU -145

Austin Gomber (THE BAT's No. 196 SP) vs. Jose Urquidy (THE BAT's No. 121 SP)

Ryan Blakney (Extreme Pitchers Umpire - No. 14 Today)

Coors Field (No. 1 Runs | No. 11 HR | No. 30 K)

37 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

6 mph in from CF (No. 6 weakest winds today)

QUICK-HITTING INSIGHTS

  • Austin Gomber's spin rate (2018 rpm) has decreased by 134 rpm in 2021
  • Gomber and his 3.52 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 4.50 so far in 2021
  • Gomber has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year; 3.52 ERA is 1.24 points below his 4.77 FIP
  • Jose Urquidy has been quite unlucky this season, posting a 4.50 ERA despite a 2.39 FIP
  • Urquidy has a large reverse platoon split, making him more effective against opposite-handed hitters (he’s projected to face six today)
  • The Rockies have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 3 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.283 wOBA going forward According to THE BAT X, the Astros and their 0.314 wOBA have been the No. 10 luckiest offense in 2021
  • The Astros (20.3 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 1 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today
  • The Rockies (28.3 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 1 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today
  • The Rockies have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Sam Hilliard, Austin Gomber, Dom Nunez)

Boston Red Sox (12-6) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (7-10)

10.0 O/U: | BOS -125 | TOR 105

Garrett Richards (THE BAT's No. 167 SP) vs. Trent Thornton (THE BAT's No. 219 SP)

Doug Eddings (Extreme Pitchers Umpire - No. 5 Today)

Fenway Park (No. 2 Runs | No. 16 HR | No. 18 K)

56 degrees (No. 6 hottest today)

13 mph out to RF (No. 3 strongest winds today)

QUICK-HITTING INSIGHTS

  • Garrett Richards (93.0 mph) has lost 1.6 mph off his fastball so far in 2021
  • Richards’ spin rate (2544 rpm) has decreased by nearly 100 rpm in 2021
  • Richards has a reverse platoon split, making him less effective against same-handed hitters, which he's projected to face six of today
  • Trent Thornton may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 61 pitches
  • According to THE BAT X, the Red Sox and their 0.348 wOBA have been the No. 1 luckiest offense in 2021
  • The Blue Jays have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 2 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.290 wOBA going forward
  • The Red Sox have five players (Christian Arroyo, Bobby Dalbec, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 most in MLB
  • The Blue Jays have four players (Bo Bichette, Randal Grichuk, Rowdy Tellez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 most in MLB

 

BONUS INSIGHTS ACROSS MLB TODAY

  • Dinelson Lamet may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 80 pitches
  • Max Scherzer (93.0 mph) has lost nearly a full mph off his fastball so far in 2021
  • Michael Wacha is throwing a fastball 11% less often this season (31% usage) than he did last season (42%)
  • Wacha is throwing a cutter 11% more often this season (39% usage) than he did last season (28%)
  • Wacha has been quite unlucky this season, posting a 3.27 ERA despite a 1.56 FIP
  • Ian Anderson has a large reverse platoon split, making him less effective against same-handed hitters, which he's projected to face six of today

BETTING ANGLE OF THE DAY

San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: Over 8 Runs

  • Game time temperature is projected to be 66 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)
  • Citizens Bank Park is the No. 4 park in MLB for home runs
  • The Phillies have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 5 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.297 wOBA going forward
  • The Giants have four players (Brandon Crawford, Tommy La Stella, Brandon Belt, Evan Longoria) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 most in MLB
  • Zach Eflin (91.5 mph) has lost 1.5 mph off his fastball so far in 2021
  • Eflin and his 3.15 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 4.02 thus far in 2021
  • Anthony DeSclafani and his 1.06 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 4.38 thus far in 2021
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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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