MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Wednesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYM - Jacob deGrom (No. 1 out of 300)

2. TB - Tyler Glasnow (No. 7)

3. LAD - Clayton Kershaw (No. 9)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. SEA - Justin Dunn (No. 287 out of 300)

2. STL - Johan Oviedo (No. 258)

3. CLE - Logan Allen (No. 256)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. DET at CWS - Tripp Gibson (No. 12 out of 117)

2. COL at SF - CB Bucknor (No. 16)

3. LAA at TEX - Brian O'Nora (No. 22)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. CIN at LAD - Lance Barksdale (No. 23 out of 117)

2. KC at PIT - Jose Navas (No. 31)

3. SEA at HOU - Kyle McCrady (No. 41)

Today's Hottest Games

1. CIN at LAD (84 degrees)

2. NYY at BAL (83 degrees)

3. CHC at ATL (80 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. DET at CWS (48 degrees)

2. COL at SF (59 degrees)

3. PHI at STL (69 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

  • New York Yankees

    Projected: 6.60 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 155

  • Houston Astros

    Projected: 6.05 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -140

  • Toronto Blue Jays

    Projected: 5.78 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 145

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

  • Boston Red Sox

    Projected: 2.94 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -120

  • Colorado Rockies

    Projected: 3.23 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 140

  • Detroit Tigers

    Projected: 3.32 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O + 145

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

  • Yankees at Orioles

    Projected: 11.58 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -110

  • Nationals at Blue Jays

    Projected: 10.84 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

  • Mariners at Astros

    Projected: 10.19 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

  • Rockies at Giants

    Projected: 6.74 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -105

  • Red Sox at Mets

    Projected: 7.67 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O + 100

  • Tigers at White Sox

    Projected: 7.68 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -120

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

 

Cleveland Indians (11-11) vs. Minnesota Twins (7-15)

9.0 O/U | CLE + 100 | MIN -120

Logan Allen (THE BAT's No. 256 SP) vs. J.A. Happ (THE BAT's No. 200 SP)

Cory Blaser (Extreme Pitchers Umpire - No. 26 in MLB)

Progressive Field (No. 4 Runs | No. 13 HR | No. 17 K)

74 degrees (No. 8 coldest today)

10 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  J.A. Happ (89.6 mph) has lost 1.4 mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  J.A. Happ is throwing a changeup 14% less often this season (1% usage) than he did last season (15% usage)

·  J.A. Happ has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 1.69 ERA is 2.20 points below his 3.89 FIP

·  J.A. Happ has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against 7 opposite-handed hitters today

·  The Twins have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 4 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.298 wOBA going forward

·  The Indians have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 5 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.294 wOBA going forward

·  The Twins have 4 players (Luis Arraez, Nelson Cruz, Andrelton Simmons, Byron Buxton) with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 most in MLB

·  The Indians have 4 players (Amed Rosario, Cesar Hernandez, Andres Gimenez, Jose Ramirez) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is lopsided action on the Game Total with 83% of the bet tickets and 53% of the cash is on the OVER

·  On the year, Cleveland Indians Team Total Under has been their most profitable market and have covered 14-8 to generate + 5.18 Units (20% ROI)

·  On the year, Minnesota Twins Team Total Under has been their most profitable market and have covered 11-7 to generate + 4.28 Units (22% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Andrelton Simmons's Hits Prop which is currently at Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+ 150)

·  We're seeing line movement on the Game Total as it opened at 8.5 Runs, but sharp action has bet the OVER to 9.0 Runs

Pittsburgh Pirates (12-11) vs. Kansas City Royals (14-8)

7.5 O/U | PIT + 105 | KC -125

Mitch Keller (THE BAT's No. 156 SP) vs. Mike Minor (THE BAT's No. 98 SP)

Jose Navas (Extreme Hitters Umpire - No. 31 in MLB)

PNC Park (No. 19 Runs | No. 26 HR | No. 25 K)

78 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)

10 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Mike Minor (90.8 mph) has added nearly a full mph to his fastball velocity this season

·  Mike Minor is throwing a fastball 16% less often this season (34% usage) than he did last season (50% usage)

·  Mike Minor is throwing a curveball 11% more often this season (18% usage) than he did last season (7% usage)

·  THE BAT projects Mike Minor (4.10 projected ERA) to be much better going forward than his 4.64 ERA season-to-date indicates

·  Mitch Keller has a reverse platoon split, making him less effective against same-handed hitters, which he's projected to face 6 of today

·  According to THE BAT X, the Pirates and their 0.295 wOBA have been the No. 6 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Royals have 4 players (Michael A. Taylor, Salvador Perez, Jorge Soler, Carlos Santana) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has the most line movement on the slate, as the opening UNDER 8.0 Runs (100) has been bet down by sharps to UNDER 7.5 (-105)

·  The Kansas City Royals Moneyline is getting lopsided action as it has 80% of the cash and 59% of the bet tickets thus far

·  On the year, Kansas City Royals’s Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and have covered 15-6 to generate + 8.25 Units (34% ROI)

·  On the year, Pittsburgh Pirates’s MoneyLine has been their most profitable market and have covered 12-11 to generate + 6.95 Units (30% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Mike Minor's Earned Runs Prop which is currently at Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs (+ 125/-170)

Houston Astros (12-11) vs. Seattle Mariners (13-11)

8.5 O/U | HOU -210 | SEA + 175

Zack Greinke (THE BAT's No. 82 SP) vs. Justin Dunn (THE BAT's No. 287 SP)

Kyle McCrady (Extreme Hitters Umpire - No. 41 in MLB)

Minute Maid Park (No. 22 Runs | No. 14 HR | No. 2 K)

72 degrees (No. 7 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Justin Dunn (92.8 mph) has added 2.2 mph to his fastball velocity this season

·  Justin Dunn's fastball spin rate (2376 rpm) has jumped 136 rpm since 2020

·  Justin Dunn is throwing a curveball 10% more often this season (33% usage) than he did last season (23% usage)

·  Justin Dunn has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 3.68 ERA is 2.04 points below his 5.72 FIP

·  Zack Greinke is throwing a sinker 13% less often this season (6% usage) than he did last season (19% usage)

·  Zack Greinke is throwing a curveball 13% more often this season (21% usage) than he did last season (8% usage)

·  Zack Greinke is throwing a changeup 15% more often this season (24% usage) than he did last season (9% usage)

·  The Mariners have 4 players (Kyle Seager, Ty France, Mitch Haniger, Jose Marmolejos) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, second-most in MLB

·  The Astros have 4 players (Michael Brantley, Aledmys Diaz, Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve) with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 most in MLB

·  The Astros (19.1 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 1 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is two-way action on the Run Line as 56% of the bet tickets are on the Mariners, but 74% of the cash is on the Astros

·  The Houston Astros Moneyline is getting lopsided action as it has 76% of the cash and 62% of the bet tickets thus far

·  On the year, Seattle Mariners Run Line has been their most profitable market and have covered 17-7 to generate + 8.55 Units (26% ROI)

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

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