MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Wednesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYY - Gerrit Cole (No. 3 out of 344)

2. LAD - Max Scherzer (No. 5)

3. BOS - Chris Sale (No. 8)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. TEX - Kohei Arihara (No. 341 out of 344)

2. CLE - Logan Allen (No. 327)

3. DET - Wily Peralta (No. 320)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. PIT at CWS - Brian O'Nora (No. 18 out of 111)

2. SD at ARI - Nestor Ceja (No. 21)

3. HOU at SEA - Ryan Additon (No. 27)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. COL at TEX - Edwin Moscoso (No. 3 out of 111)

2. NYY at LAA - Junior Valentine (No. 14)

3. BOS at TB - Adam Beck (No. 28)

Today's Hottest Games

1. CLE at KC (80 degrees)

2. SD at ARI (78 degrees)

3. STL at CIN (76 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. MIL at SF (56 degrees)

2. BAL at TOR (67 degrees)

3. HOU at SEA (67 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 5.64 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O 105

·  Oakland Athletics

Projected: 5.63 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O 105

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.52 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.01 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -130

·  St. Louis Cardinals

Projected: 3.29 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O 115

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.44 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O 120

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Athletics at Tigers

Projected: 9.69 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -110

·  Orioles at Blue Jays

Projected: 9.60 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O 100

·  Cardinals at Reds

Projected: 9.48 runs

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Cardinals at Reds

Projected: 7.07 runs

·  Marlins at Mets

Projected: 7.73 runs

·  Red Sox at Rays

Projected: 8.03 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -110

GAMES OF THE DAY

Cincinnati Reds (71-62) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (67-63)

O/U: 8.5 | CIN -160 | STL 140

Wade Miley (THE BAT's No. 132 SP) vs. Miles Mikolas (THE BAT's No. 109 SP)

Great American Ball Park (No. 3 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)

76 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

13 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  The spin on Sonny Gray's fastball (2419 rpm) has been 102 rpm less than it was in 2020

·  J.A. Happ has been throwing a fastball (12% increase) far more often in 2021 (56% usage) than he did in 2020 (44% usage)

·  Miles Mikolas has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 2.70 ERA is 1.18 points below his 3.88 FIP

·  Cincinnati boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB (Joey Votto, Tucker Barnhart, Eugenio Suarez)

·  THE BAT X views the Cardinals as the No. 5 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Cardinals offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 4 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Dylan Carlson, Nolan Arenado, Paul DeJong)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 72% of the cash and 60% of the bet tickets on the Reds

·  The Reds Run Line has 77% of the cash and 51% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  Nick Castellanos' Total Bases Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-115)

Texas Rangers (47-85) vs. Colorado Rockies (60-72)

O/U: 8.5 | TEX 115 | COL -135

Kohei Arihara (THE BAT's No. 341 SP) vs. Kyle Freeland (THE BAT's No. 72 SP)

Edwin Moscoso (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 3 in MLB)

Globe Life Field (No. 21 Runs | No. 18 HR | No. 21 K)

70 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Kohei Arihara may be limited today, with THE BAT projecting a maximum pitch count of roughly 45 pitches

·  Kyle Freeland is projected to face eight opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split

·  The Rangers have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30% , according to THE BAT X (Adolis Garcia, DJ Peters, Leody Taveras)

·  THE BAT X projects the Rockies (No. 5 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.315 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  The Rockies offense is quite fast; they have the No. 3 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Garrett Hampson, Trevor Story, Raimel Tapia)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Rockies Moneyline has 94% of the cash and 62% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  There is lopsided action on the Game Total as 74% of the cash and 61% of the bet tickets is on the OVER

·  The most popular prop for the game is Kyle Freeland's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts ( 110/-145)

Los Angeles Angels (66-67) vs. New York Yankees (76-56)

O/U: 8.5 | LAA 230 | NYY -270

Packy Naughton (THE BAT's No. 218 SP) vs. Gerrit Cole (THE BAT's No. 3 SP)

Junior Valentine (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 14 in MLB)

Angel Stadium (No. 14 Runs | No. 10 HR | No. 9 K)

74 degrees (No. 7 hottest today)

10 mph out to CF (No. 5 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Packy Naughton is projected to face seven opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split

·  So far in 2021, Packy Naughton has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitchers, boasting a 1.69 ERA despite a 4.14 FIP

·  Gerrit Cole's fastball (97.0 mph) is nearly a full mph faster than it was in 2020

·  Gerrit Cole is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his disadvantage given his reverse platoon split

·  The Angels are the No. 3 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 26.4% according to THE BAT X

·  The Angels have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30% , according to THE BAT X (Max Stassi, Brandon Marsh, Jo Adell)

·  THE BAT X views the Angels as the No. 7 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Yankees have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 1 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.317 wOBA going forward

·  New York boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB (Joey Gallo, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  This game has the most lopsided Run Line today as 83% of the bet tickets and 72% of the cash is on the Yankees

·  The Yankees Moneyline has 68% of the bet tickets and 98% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The most popular prop for the game is Shohei Ohtani's Total Bases Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/-100)

 

 

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

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