MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Wednesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

USATSI_16679076

This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Freddy Peralta (No. 15 out of 340)

2. MIA - Sandy Alcantara (No. 30)

3. BOS - Nathan Eovaldi (No. 37)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. TEX - Kohei Arihara (No. 333 out of 340)

2. WSH - Sean Nolin (No. 318)

3. BAL - Matt Harvey (No. 317)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. CWS at OAK - Ron Kulpa (No. 2 out of 111)

2. MIN at CLE - Dan Merzel (No. 17)

3. LAD at STL - Brennan Miller (No. 20)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. LAA at SD - Alfonso Marquez (No. 1 out of 111)

2. TOR at NYY - Edwin Moscoso (No. 2)

3. TB at BOS - John Libka (No. 9)

Today's Hottest Games

1. SF at COL (84 degrees)

2. KC at BAL (80 degrees)

3. TEX at ARI (78 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. DET at PIT (69 degrees)

2. CWS at OAK (69 degrees)

3. PHI at MIL (69 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 6.07 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -130

·  San Francisco Giants

Projected: 6.03 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O + 110

·  Kansas City Royals

Projected: 5.98 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Los Angeles Angels

Projected: 3.36 runs

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.44 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -105

·  New York Mets

Projected: 3.46 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -115

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Blue Jays at Yankees

Projected: 11.96 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -105

·  Rays at Red Sox

Projected: 11.70 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -120

·  Giants at Rockies

Projected: 11.31 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.5 O + 100

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Mets at Marlins

Projected: 6.90 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -120

·  White Sox at Athletics

Projected: 8.12 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -105

·  Angels at Padres

Projected: 8.44 runs

GAMES OF THE DAY

Houston Astros (81-57) vs. Seattle Mariners (75-64)

O/U: | HOU | SEA

Jose Urquidy (THE BAT's No. 94 SP) vs. Tyler Anderson (THE BAT's No. 151 SP)

Adam Beck (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 24 in MLB)

Minute Maid Park (No. 23 Runs | No. 14 HR | No. 2 K)

72 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Given that Fly ball pitchers are most effective against Fly ball hitters, Jose Urquidy (39% FB% since 2019) is well-situated today with two Fly ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Jose Urquidy is projected to face seven opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his advantage given his large reverse platoon split

·  So far in 2021, Jose Urquidy has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitchers, boasting a 3.42 ERA despite a 3.95 FIP

·  The Astros are the least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 18.7% according to THE BAT X

·  The Seattle Mariners' 22.1 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 5 least on today's slate of games

·  The Mariners' 0.297 team wOBA makes them the No. 4 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Mariners offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 5 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Dylan Moore, Abraham Toro, Kyle Seager)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Astros Moneyline has 69% of the bet tickets and 69% of the cash making it the most lopsided action on the slate

·  There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 65% of the bet tickets and 62% of the cash is on the Astros

·  The most popular prop for the game is Yordan Alvarez's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 340/-650)

Arizona Diamondbacks (45-94) vs. Texas Rangers (50-88)

O/U: 9 | ARI -160 | TEX + 140

Luke Weaver (THE BAT's No. 150 SP) vs. Kohei Arihara (THE BAT's No. 333 SP)

Chase Field (No. 12 Runs | No. 25 HR | No. 26 K)

78 degrees (No. 3 hottest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  This season, Luke Weaver's fastball (92.7 mph) has been nearly a full mph slower than it was in 2020

·  Kohei Arihara may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 62 pitches

·  THE BAT X views the D-Backs as the No. 6 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Texas Rangers's 27.5 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 4 most on today's slate of games

·  Strikeouts against Texas may be easy to come by today, as three players (DJ Peters, Adolis Garcia, Kohei Arihara) project for a 30%+ underlying K%, via THE BAT X

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The OVER has 65% of the bet tickets and 58% of the cash resulting in a lopsided handle for the Game Total

·  The most popular prop for the game is Luke Weaver's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)

Milwaukee Brewers (85-55) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (71-67)

O/U: 8 | MIL -155 | PHI + 135

Freddy Peralta (THE BAT's No. 15 SP) vs. Kyle Gibson (THE BAT's No. 98 SP)

Mike Muchlinski (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 39 in MLB)

American Family Field (No. 13 Runs | No. 9 HR | No. 6 K)

69 degrees (No. 3 coldest today)

10 mph out to CF (No. 3 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Freddy Peralta may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 70 pitches

·  As an extreme fly ball pitcher (41% FB% since 2019), Freddy Peralta may not be a great fit for the No. 10 HR in baseball, American Family Field, today

·  Fly ball pitchers tend to perform worse against Ground ball hitters, and Freddy Peralta (41% FB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today

·  While THE BAT projects Freddy Peralta's ERA going forward to be 3.55, his actual has been 2.70 ERA, indicating some regression may be in order

·  Kyle Gibson's cutter usage (14% in 2021, 0% in 2020) has increased 14% this season

·  Kyle Gibson's ground ball tendencies (52% GB% since 2019) ought to play well in homer-friendly American Family Field (No. 10 best HR park in baseball) today

·  Given that Ground ball pitchers are most effective against Ground ball hitters, Kyle Gibson (52% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with two Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Philadelphia boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB (Andrew McCutchen, Didi Gregorius, Freddy Galvis)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most popular prop for the game is Christian Yelich's Total Bases Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+ 130/-180)

back to news

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

The Lombardi Line: Bookmakers love parleys, when playing them, you want a mix of favorites and underdogs.

Pro Football Blitz: When you back teams on the raod you want a good running team, when you back teams at home you want a good passing team. With teams on the road usually the underdog, you want a team that can control time of possession like the Tennessee Titans.

 

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Shaun King: Eagles -6.5 vs Jaguars

Brendan Gaughan: Brad Keselowski Top 3 +600

View new sortable Picks at a Glance page for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Screen_Shot_2022-09-30_at_6.23.35_PM

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

Close