MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Wednesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Brandon Woodruff (No. 6 out of 346)

2. OAK - Sean Manaea (No. 16)

3. LAD - Julio Urias (No. 17)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. WSH - Josh Rogers (No. 339 out of 346)

2. TEX - Kohei Arihara (No. 338)

3. STL - Jon Lester (No. 332)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. BOS at SEA - Brennan Miller (No. 17 out of 111)

2. TB at TOR - Jeremie Rehak (No. 18)

3. STL at NYM - Ed Hickox (No. 23)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. ARI at LAD - Mark Wegner (No. 5 out of 111)

2. COL at ATL - Chad Fairchild (No. 14)

3. CLE at MIN - John Libka (No. 16)

Today's Hottest Games

1. NYY at BAL (83 degrees)

2. CHC at PHI (82 degrees)

3. MIA at WSH (81 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. SD at SF (56 degrees)

2. BOS at SEA (60 degrees)

3. TB at TOR (65 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 7.05 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -105

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 5.96 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 110

·  Chicago White Sox

Projected: 5.72 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 100

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Detroit Tigers

Projected: 3.34 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 120

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 3.47 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -105

·  Chicago Cubs

Projected: 3.94 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -110

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Yankees at Orioles

Projected: 12.50 runs

·  Indians at Twins

Projected: 10.57 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O + 100

·  Rays at Blue Jays

Projected: 10.21 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Brewers at Tigers

Projected: 8.69 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O + 100

·  Red Sox at Mariners

Projected: 8.83 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -110

·  Athletics at Royals

Projected: 8.86 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -115

GAMES OF THE DAY

Washington Nationals (60-85) vs. Miami Marlins (61-84)

O/U: 8.5 | WSH + 105 | MIA -125

Josh Rogers (THE BAT's No. 339 SP) vs. Trevor Rogers (THE BAT's No. 58 SP)

Fieldin Culbreth (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 46 in MLB)

Nationals Park (No. 10 Runs | No. 12 HR | No. 14 K)

81 degrees (No. 3 hottest today)

10 mph out to CF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Josh Rogers has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 3.65 ERA is 1.66 points below his 5.31 FIP

·  Thus far in 2021, Trevor Rogers' fastball (93.9 mph) has been 1.1 mph faster than it was last season

·  Trevor Rogers is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split

·  According to THE BAT X, the Nationals and their 0.325 wOBA have been the No. 5 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Marlins (27.5 K%, via THE BAT X) have the most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The projected lineup for the Marlins holds three extremely strikeout-prone bats today: Jazz Chisholm, Jorge Alfaro, Trevor Rogers. THE BAT projects all for a Jazz Chisholm, Jorge Alfaro, Trevor Rogers+ underlying K%

·  According to THE BAT X, the Marlins and their 0.294 wOBA have been the No. 2 luckiest offense in 2021

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Marlins Run Line has steamed 15 cents as it opened at -1.5 (+ 150) and is now -1.5 (+ 135)

·  This season the Nationals Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 73-62 resulting in + 5.45 Units (4% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Miami Marlins has been their Team Total Under which is 75-64 generating + 2.36 Units (1% ROI)

·  Trevor Rogers's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)

Atlanta Braves (76-67) vs. Colorado Rockies (67-78)

O/U: 9.0 | ATL -200 | COL + 170

Huascar Ynoa (THE BAT's No. 109 SP) vs. Antonio Senzatela (THE BAT's No. 74 SP)

Chad Fairchild (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 14 in MLB)

Truist Park (No. 14 Runs | No. 21 HR | No. 23 K)

73 degrees (No. 6 hottest today)

4 mph in from LF (No. 4 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  So far in 2021, Huascar Ynoa has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitchers, boasting a 3.22 ERA despite a 3.75 FIP

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform worse against Fly ball hitters, and Antonio Senzatela (53% GB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today

·  The Atlanta Braves' 25.9 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 5 most on today's slate of games

·  The Braves have five players (Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley, Jorge Soler, Adam Duvall, Freddie Freeman) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Colorado Rockies' 27.3 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 2 most on today's slate of games

·  The Rockies have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Sam Hilliard, Dom Nunez, Antonio Senzatela)

·  The Rockies have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 5 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.315 wOBA going forward

·  Colorado boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Sprint Speed this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB (Yonathan Daza, Garrett Hampson, Raimel Tapia, Trevor Story)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has two-way action as 53% of the bet tickets are on the UNDER, but 2% of the cash is on the OVER

·  The Colorado Rockies Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 77-61 resulting in + 8.95 Units (6% ROI)

·  The Atlanta Braves Team Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 72-60 resulting in + 0.48 Units (0% ROI)

·  Antonio Senzatela's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115) is the most popular prop for the game

Kansas City Royals (66-78) vs. Oakland Athletics (77-67)

O/U: 8.5 | KC + 130 | OAK -150

Mike Minor (THE BAT's No. 75 SP) vs. Sean Manaea (THE BAT's No. 16 SP)

Tony Randazzo (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 28 in MLB)

Kauffman Stadium (No. 17 Runs | No. 30 HR | No. 29 K)

78 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)

7 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Thus far in 2021, Sean Manaea's fastball (91.6 mph) has been 1.9 mph faster than it was last season

·  Sean Manaea is throwing a fastball 54% less often this season (0% usage) than he did last season (54% usage)

·  Sean Manaea is throwing a sinker 60% more often this season (60% usage) than he did last season (0% usage)

·  The Royals are the least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 20.2% according to THE BAT X

·  The Royals have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 4 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.300 wOBA going forward

·  The Athletics are the No. 4 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 21.3% according to THE BAT X

·  The Athletics offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 2 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Tony Kemp, Jed Lowrie, Matt Chapman, Josh Harrison)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Athletics Moneyline has 67% of the bet tickets and 86% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The Oakland Athletics Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 74-69 resulting in + 6.40 Units (4% ROI)

·  This season the Royals Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 69-60 resulting in + 3.45 Units (2% ROI)

·  Sean Manaea's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 5.0 Strikeouts (-115/-115)

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

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