This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.
TODAY'S RANKINGS ROUND-UP
Today's Best Starting Pitchers
1. CLE - Shane Bieber (No. 3 out of 299)
2. MIL - Freddy Peralta (No. 16)
3. CIN - Sonny Gray (No. 17)
Today's Worst Starting Pitchers
1. NYM - Jordan Yamamoto (No. 246 out of 299)
2. PHI - Chase Anderson (No. 221)
3. STL - Johan Oviedo (No. 214)
Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires
1. HOU at NYY - Jeremie Rehak (No. 6 out of 117)
2. TB at LAA - Tripp Gibson (No. 10)
3. PIT at SD - Ryan Additon (No. 17)
Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires
1. CWS at CIN - Sam Holbrook (No. 8 out of 117)
2. SF at COL - Kyle McCrady (No. 36)
3. TOR at OAK - Brian Knight (No. 37)
Today's Hottest Games
1. TB at LAA (72 degrees)
2. ARI at MIA (72 degrees)
3. PIT at SD (67 degrees)
Today's Coldest Games
1. DET at BOS (49 degrees)
2. TEX at MIN (49 degrees)
3. LAD at CHC (50 degrees)
THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals
· San Francisco Giants
Projected: 5.34 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 110
· New York Yankees
Projected: 5.32 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -145
· Boston Red Sox
Projected: 5.27 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 150
THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals
· St. Louis Cardinals
Projected: 2.69 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 100
· Pittsburgh Pirates
Projected: 2.86 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -125
· New York Mets
Projected: 3.02 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 100
THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals
· Giants at Rockies
Projected: 10.33 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -110
· Astros at Yankees
Projected: 10.13 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -120
· Tigers at Red Sox
Projected: 9.52 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -115
THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals
· Mets at Cardinals
Projected: 5.71 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.0 O + 105
· Pirates at Padres
Projected: 7.01 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O -115
· D-Backs at Marlins
Projected: 7.44 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O + 105
GAMES OF THE DAY
Cincinnati Reds (13-15) vs. Chicago White Sox (16-12)
8.0 O/U | CIN -135 | CWS + 115
Sonny Gray (THE BAT's No. 17 SP) vs. Dallas Keuchel (THE BAT's No. 93 SP)
Sam Holbrook (Extreme Hitters Umpire - No. 8 in MLB)
Great American Ball Park (No. 2 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)
58 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)
10 mph out to RF (No. 1 strongest winds today)
DATA NUGGETS
· Great American Ball Park is baseball's best park for home runs, but Dallas Keuchel's groundball-heavy skillset (58% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball
· Keuchel is throwing a cutter 12% less often this season (19% usage) than he did last season (31% usage)
· According to THE BAT X, the White Sox and their 0.325 wOBA have been the second-luckiest offense in 2021
· According to THE BAT X, the Reds and their 0.329 wOBA have been the No. 6 luckiest offense in 2021
· The Reds have five players (Tucker Barnhart, Jesse Winker, Kyle Farmer, Eugenio Suarez, Tyler Naquin) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, most in MLB
· The White Sox have four players (Tim Anderson, Adam Eaton, Leury Garcia, Nick Madrigal) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, most in MLB
BETTING INSIGHTS
· This season the Reds Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 19-8 resulting in + 10.30 Units (33% ROI)
· The most popular prop for the game is Sonny Gray's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
· We're seeing line movement on the Game Total as it opened at 8.5 Runs, but sharp action has bet the UNDER moving it to 8.0 Runs
· There is reverse line movement as only 44% of the cash is on the Reds but their Moneyline has dropped from -125 to -135
Washington Nationals (12-13) vs. Atlanta Braves (13-16)
9.0 O/U | WSH + 110 | ATL -130
Erick Fedde (THE BAT's No. 183 SP) vs. Max Fried (THE BAT's No. 69 SP)
Nationals Park (No. 12 Runs | No. 12 HR | No. 14 K)
64 degrees (No. 8 hottest today)
14 mph across the field
DATA NUGGETS
· Max Fried may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 80 pitches
· Flyball pitchers tend to perform better against flyball hitters, and Max Fried (53% FB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today
· Flyball pitchers tend to perform worse against Groundball hitters, and Erick Fedde (53% GB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today
· Fedde (93.4 mph) has added nearly a full mph to his fastball velocity this season
· Fedde is throwing a fastball 20% less often this season (2% usage) than he did last season (22% usage)
· Fedde is throwing a cutter 13% more often this season (29% usage) than he did last season (16% usage)
· Fedde has been quite unlucky this season, posting a 4.43 ERA despite a 3.74 FIP
· The Nationals (22.4 K%, via THE BAT X) have the #5 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today
· The Nationals have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 7 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.304 wOBA going forward
· The Braves have four players (Marcell Ozuna, Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, Freddie Freeman) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, third-most in MLB
BETTING INSIGHTS
· There is two-way action on the Run Line as 54% of the bet tickets are on the Braves, but 80% of the cash is on the Nationals
· This season the Braves Team Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 17-9 resulting in + 6.10 Units (19% ROI)
· The most profitable market for the Washington Nationals has been their Game Total Under which is 15-9 generating + 5.40 Units (20% ROI)
· The most popular prop for the game is Freddie Freeman's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 330/-620)
· We're seeing line movement on the Game Total as it opened at 8.5 Runs, but sharp action has bet the OVER moving it to 9.0 Runs
Kansas City Royals (16-12) vs. Cleveland Indians (15-13)
7.0 O/U | KC + 140 | CLE -160
Brady Singer (THE BAT's No. 72 SP) vs. Shane Bieber (THE BAT's No. 3 SP)
Kauffman Stadium (No. 8 Runs | No. 30 HR | No. 29 K)
66 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)
6 mph out to LF (No. 5 strongest winds today)
DATA NUGGETS
· Brady Singer (93.6 mph) has added nearly a full mph to his fastball velocity this season
· Singer has a huge platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against 6 opposite-handed hitters today
· Flyball pitchers tend to perform better against flyball hitters, and Brady Singer (53% FB% since 2019) is projected to face four of them today
· Singer is throwing a fastball 45% less often this season (0% usage) than he did last season (45% usage)
· Singer is throwing a sinker 48% more often this season (61% usage) than he did last season (13% usage)
· Singer and his 3.09 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 4.05 thus far in 2021
· Shane Bieber (92.4 mph) has lost 1.2 mph off his fastball so far in 2021
· Bieber is throwing a slider 17% more often this season (28% usage) than he did last season (11% usage)
· Bieber is throwing a cutter 13% less often this season (1% usage) than he did last season (14% usage)
· The Indians (22.1 K%, via THE BAT X) have the #4 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today
· The Indians have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 4 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.294 wOBA going forward
· The Indians have four players (Jordan Luplow, Roberto Perez, Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, most in MLB
· The Royals have four players (Salvador Perez, Michael A. Taylor, Jorge Soler, Hunter Dozier) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, third most in MLB
BETTING INSIGHTS
· There is two-way action on the Moneyline as 71% of the bet tickets are on the Indians, but 88% of the cash is on the Royals
· The Cleveland Indians Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 18-10 resulting in + 5.40 Units (14% ROI)
· The most popular prop for the game is Shane Bieber's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 9.5 Strikeouts (+ 115/-150)