MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Wednesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

USATSI_15960060

This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

TODAY'S RANKINGS ROUND-UP

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. CLE - Shane Bieber (No. 3 out of 299)

2. MIL - Freddy Peralta (No. 16)

3. CIN - Sonny Gray (No. 17)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. NYM - Jordan Yamamoto (No. 246 out of 299)

2. PHI - Chase Anderson (No. 221)

3. STL - Johan Oviedo (No. 214)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. HOU at NYY - Jeremie Rehak (No. 6 out of 117)

2. TB at LAA - Tripp Gibson (No. 10)

3. PIT at SD - Ryan Additon (No. 17)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. CWS at CIN - Sam Holbrook (No. 8 out of 117)

2. SF at COL - Kyle McCrady (No. 36)

3. TOR at OAK - Brian Knight (No. 37)

Today's Hottest Games

1. TB at LAA (72 degrees)

2. ARI at MIA (72 degrees)

3. PIT at SD (67 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. DET at BOS (49 degrees)

2. TEX at MIN (49 degrees)

3. LAD at CHC (50 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  San Francisco Giants

Projected: 5.34 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 110

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 5.32 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -145

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 5.27 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 150

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  St. Louis Cardinals

Projected: 2.69 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 100

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 2.86 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -125

·  New York Mets

Projected: 3.02 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 100

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Giants at Rockies

Projected: 10.33 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -110

·  Astros at Yankees

Projected: 10.13 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -120

·  Tigers at Red Sox

Projected: 9.52 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Mets at Cardinals

Projected: 5.71 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.0 O + 105

·  Pirates at Padres

Projected: 7.01 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O -115

·  D-Backs at Marlins

Projected: 7.44 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O + 105

GAMES OF THE DAY

Cincinnati Reds (13-15) vs. Chicago White Sox (16-12)

8.0 O/U | CIN -135 | CWS + 115

Sonny Gray (THE BAT's No. 17 SP) vs. Dallas Keuchel (THE BAT's No. 93 SP)

Sam Holbrook (Extreme Hitters Umpire - No. 8 in MLB)

Great American Ball Park (No. 2 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)

58 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

10 mph out to RF (No. 1 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Great American Ball Park is baseball's best park for home runs, but Dallas Keuchel's groundball-heavy skillset (58% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·   Keuchel is throwing a cutter 12% less often this season (19% usage) than he did last season (31% usage)

·  According to THE BAT X, the White Sox and their 0.325 wOBA have been the second-luckiest offense in 2021

·  According to THE BAT X, the Reds and their 0.329 wOBA have been the No. 6 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Reds have five players (Tucker Barnhart, Jesse Winker, Kyle Farmer, Eugenio Suarez, Tyler Naquin) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, most in MLB

·  The White Sox have four players (Tim Anderson, Adam Eaton, Leury Garcia, Nick Madrigal) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  This season the Reds Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 19-8 resulting in + 10.30 Units (33% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Sonny Gray's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)

·  We're seeing line movement on the Game Total as it opened at 8.5 Runs, but sharp action has bet the UNDER moving it to 8.0 Runs

·  There is reverse line movement as only 44% of the cash is on the Reds but their Moneyline has dropped from -125 to -135

Washington Nationals (12-13) vs. Atlanta Braves (13-16)

9.0 O/U | WSH + 110 | ATL -130

Erick Fedde (THE BAT's No. 183 SP) vs. Max Fried (THE BAT's No. 69 SP)

Nationals Park (No. 12 Runs | No. 12 HR | No. 14 K)

64 degrees (No. 8 hottest today)

14 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Max Fried may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 80 pitches

·  Flyball pitchers tend to perform better against flyball hitters, and Max Fried (53% FB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today

·  Flyball pitchers tend to perform worse against Groundball hitters, and Erick Fedde (53% GB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today

·  Fedde (93.4 mph) has added nearly a full mph to his fastball velocity this season

·  Fedde is throwing a fastball 20% less often this season (2% usage) than he did last season (22% usage)

· Fedde is throwing a cutter 13% more often this season (29% usage) than he did last season (16% usage)

·  Fedde has been quite unlucky this season, posting a 4.43 ERA despite a 3.74 FIP

·  The Nationals (22.4 K%, via THE BAT X) have the #5 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Nationals have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 7 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.304 wOBA going forward

·  The Braves have four players (Marcell Ozuna, Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, Freddie Freeman) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, third-most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is two-way action on the Run Line as 54% of the bet tickets are on the Braves, but 80% of the cash is on the Nationals

·  This season the Braves Team Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 17-9 resulting in + 6.10 Units (19% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Washington Nationals has been their Game Total Under which is 15-9 generating + 5.40 Units (20% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Freddie Freeman's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 330/-620)

·  We're seeing line movement on the Game Total as it opened at 8.5 Runs, but sharp action has bet the OVER moving it to 9.0 Runs

Kansas City Royals (16-12) vs. Cleveland Indians (15-13)

7.0 O/U | KC + 140 | CLE -160

Brady Singer (THE BAT's No. 72 SP) vs. Shane Bieber (THE BAT's No. 3 SP)

Kauffman Stadium (No. 8 Runs | No. 30 HR | No. 29 K)

66 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)

6 mph out to LF (No. 5 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Brady Singer (93.6 mph) has added nearly a full mph to his fastball velocity this season

·  Singer has a huge platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against 6 opposite-handed hitters today

·  Flyball pitchers tend to perform better against flyball hitters, and Brady Singer (53% FB% since 2019) is projected to face four of them today

·  Singer is throwing a fastball 45% less often this season (0% usage) than he did last season (45% usage)

·  Singer is throwing a sinker 48% more often this season (61% usage) than he did last season (13% usage)

·  Singer and his 3.09 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 4.05 thus far in 2021

·  Shane Bieber (92.4 mph) has lost 1.2 mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Bieber is throwing a slider 17% more often this season (28% usage) than he did last season (11% usage)

·  Bieber is throwing a cutter 13% less often this season (1% usage) than he did last season (14% usage)

·  The Indians (22.1 K%, via THE BAT X) have the #4 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Indians have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 4 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.294 wOBA going forward

·  The Indians have four players (Jordan Luplow, Roberto Perez, Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, most in MLB

·  The Royals have four players (Salvador Perez, Michael A. Taylor, Jorge Soler, Hunter Dozier) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, third most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is two-way action on the Moneyline as 71% of the bet tickets are on the Indians, but 88% of the cash is on the Royals

·  The Cleveland Indians Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 18-10 resulting in + 5.40 Units (14% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Shane Bieber's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 9.5 Strikeouts (+ 115/-150)

back to news

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All

 

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Follow The Money: We have reached the point in the season where you must factor byes into your handicapping. Even the week before the bye is a factor (more from Steve Makinen on this topic).

VSiN Big Bets: With such small totals, be careful laying a run line in these MLB playoff games.

View tips for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Matt Brown: Dolphins -3 vs Jets

Pauly Howard: Eagles 1H (-3) vs Cardinals

View new sortable Picks at a Glance page for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Screen_Shot_2022-10-07_at_1.03.45_PM

Betting SplitsPercentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

 

 

Close