MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Wednesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

TODAY'S RANKINGS ROUND-UP

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. PHI - Aaron Nola (No. 10 out of 300)

2. CWS - Carlos Rodon (No. 13)

3. LAD - Trevor Bauer (No. 14)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. SEA - Robert Dugger (No. 255 out of 300)

2. PIT - Wil Crowe (No. 254)

3. CIN - Jeff Hoffman (No. 253)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. COL at NYM - Adam Hamari (No. 4 out of 110)

2. CHC at PIT - Doug Eddings (No. 7)

3. SF at ARI - Nick Mahrley (No. 26)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. STL at CWS - Nic Lentz (No. 6 out of 110)

2. PHI at MIA - Sam Holbrook (No. 8)

3. LAD at HOU - Stu Scheurwater (No. 9)

Today's Hottest Games

1. SF at ARI (84 degrees)

2. TOR at NYY (82 degrees)

3. CIN at WSH (80 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. BAL at MIN (57 degrees)

2. SEA at OAK (62 degrees)

3. SD at MIL (69 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 6.30 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 115

·  Atlanta Braves

Projected: 5.85 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -125

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 5.72 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -135

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  New York Mets

Projected: 3.05 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.13 runs

·  Kansas City Royals

Projected: 3.44 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -130

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Braves at Red Sox

Projected: 12.15 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -110

·  Blue Jays at Yankees

Projected: 11.40 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O + 100

·  Reds at Nationals

Projected: 10.21 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Rockies at Mets

Projected: 6.51 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O -125

·  Phillies at Marlins

Projected: 7.29 runs

·  Royals at Rays

Projected: 7.62 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -115

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

Oakland Athletics (28-22) vs. Seattle Mariners (23-26)

O/U: 8.5 | OAK -165 | SEA + 150

James Kaprielian (THE BAT's No. 154 SP) vs. Robert Dugger (THE BAT's No. 255 SP)

Laz Diaz (Extreme Hitters Umpire - No. 40 in MLB)

Oakland Coliseum (No. 29 Runs | No. 28 HR | No. 13 K)

62 degrees (No. 2 coldest today)

9 mph out to RF (No. 7 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  As an extreme flyball pitcher (60% FB% since 2019), James Kaprielian matches up well with Oakland Coliseum (No. 7 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Given that Flyball pitchers are least effective against Groundball hitters, James Kaprielian (60% FB% since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with two Groundball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  James Kaprielian's 2.53 ERA is 1.42 points better than his 3.95 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  The Athletics offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Matt Olson, Stephen Piscotty, Mark Canha, Ramon Laureano, Seth Brown)

·  The Mariners have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 5 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.281 wOBA going forward

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total opened at 9.0 Runs, but is now 8.5 Runs as there is line movement toward the UNDER

·  The Athletics Run Line has 83% of the bet tickets and 65% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The Run Line has lopsided action today with 83% of the bet tickets and 65% of the cash on the Athletics

·  The most profitable market for the Seattle Mariners has been their Run Line which is 28-21 generating + 4.10 Units (6% ROI)

·  This season the Athletics Moneyline has been their most profitable market and is 28-22 resulting in + 3.35 Units (5% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels (21-27) vs. Texas Rangers (22-28)

O/U: 9 | LAA -120 | TEX + 100

Griffin Canning (THE BAT's No. 92 SP) vs. Dane Dunning (THE BAT's No. 43 SP)

Angel Stadium (No. 21 Runs | No. 10 HR | No. 9 K)

75 degrees (No. 8 coldest today)

11 mph out to LF (No. 6 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Griffin Canning (93.1 mph) has added nearly a full mph to his fastball velocity this season

·  Griffin Canning's slider usage (33% in 2021, 20% in 2020) has increased 13% this season

·  Griffin Canning's curveball usage (7% in 2021, 24% in 2020) has decreased 17% this season

·  Dane Dunning has been throwing a fastball (22% increase) far less often in 2021 (0% usage) than he did in 2020 (22% usage)

·  Dane Dunning is throwing a sinker 19% more often this season (58% usage) than he did last season (39% usage)

·  Angel Stadium is baseball's No. 7 best park for home runs, but Dane Dunning's groundball-heavy skillset (51% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Dane Dunning has been quite unlucky this season, posting a 3.74 ERA despite a 2.55 FIP

·  THE BAT X views the Rangers as the No. 5 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Rangers have 3 players (Adolis Garcia, Willie Calhoun, Charlie Culberson) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the OVER after the Game Total opened at 8.5 Runs and is now 9.0 Runs

·  The Los Angeles Angels Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 29-19 resulting in + 7.15 Units (13% ROI)

·  This season the Rangers Team Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 29-20 resulting in + 5.84 Units (10% ROI)

Detroit Tigers (18-30) vs. Cleveland Indians (26-20)

O/U: 9 | DET + 105 | CLE -125

Jose Urena (THE BAT's No. 237 SP) vs. Triston McKenzie (THE BAT's No. 132 SP)

Comerica Park (No. 14 Runs | No. 23 HR | No. 28 K)

78 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

15 mph out to CF (No. 1 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Despite a 3.82 FIP, Jose Urena's unlucky ERA has been 0.81 points worse at 4.62

·  Triston McKenzie (90.6 mph) has lost 1.5 mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  The spin on Triston McKenzie's fastball (2240 rpm) has been nearly 100 rpm less than it was in 2020

·  Triston McKenzie's flyball nature (43% FB% since 2019) should play well in Comerica Park (No. 8 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  The Indians (20.4 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 3 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Indians have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 2 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.291 wOBA going forward

·  Cleveland boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Sprint Speed this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB (Amed Rosario, Cesar Hernandez, Jose Ramirez)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most profitable market for the Detroit Tigers has been their Game Total Under which is 27-20 generating + 5.00 Units (9% ROI)

·  This season the Indians Team Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 26-19 resulting in + 4.64 Units (9% ROI)

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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