MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Wednesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

TODAY'S RANKINGS ROUND-UP

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Corbin Burnes (No. 3 out of 298)

2. WSH - Max Scherzer (No. 7)

3. LAD - Clayton Kershaw (No. 10)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. MIN - Matt Shoemaker (No. 258 out of 298)

2. CHC - Jake Arrieta (No. 250)

3. COL - Chi Chi Gonzalez (No. 243)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. MIA at PHI - Jeremie Rehak (No. 6 out of 110)

2. NYY at TEX - Ryan Additon (No. 15)

3. BOS at TOR - Roberto Ortiz (No. 18)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. DET at SEA - Edwin Moscoso (No. 3 out of 110)

2. CLE at LAA - Jose Navas (No. 26)

3. CWS at MIN - Chad Whitson (No. 32)

Today's Hottest Games

1. MIA at PHI (84 degrees)

2. BOS at TOR (82 degrees)

3. TB at BAL (82 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. DET at SEA (57 degrees)

2. HOU at OAK (57 degrees)

3. COL at SD (67 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Washington Nationals

Projected: 5.95 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -135

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.60 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -125

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 5.53 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.05 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -120

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 3.15 runs

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 3.26 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -120

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Red Sox at Blue Jays

Projected: 11.13 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -115

·  Nationals at Cubs

Projected: 10.38 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -115

·  White Sox at Twins

Projected: 9.67 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O + 100

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Pirates at Cardinals

Projected: 7.10 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -125

·  Rockies at Padres

Projected: 7.96 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115

·  Marlins at Phillies

Projected: 8.01 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -110

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

Cincinnati Reds (19-21) vs. San Francisco Giants (26-16)

O/U: 8.5 | CIN + 105 | SF -125

Wade Miley (THE BAT's No. 148 SP) vs. Kevin Gausman (THE BAT's No. 43 SP)

Bruce Dreckman (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 35 in MLB)

Great American Ball Park (No. 2 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)

78 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)

4 mph in from CF (No. 6 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Great American Ball Park is baseball's best park for home runs, but Wade Miley's groundball-heavy skillset (52% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Wade Miley (52% GB% since 2019) projects to face 2 Flyball hitters today, which should play to his advantage since Groundball pitchers perform best against Flyball hitters

·  Kevin Gausman and his 1.84 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 3.80 thus far in 2021

·  The Reds (26.5 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 2 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  According to THE BAT X, the Reds and their 0.327 wOBA have been the No. 6 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Reds offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 2 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, Tyler Naquin)

·  The San Francisco Giants's 25.6 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 4 most on today's slate of games

·  THE BAT X views the Giants as the No. 2 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Giants have three players (Brandon Crawford, Mauricio Dubon, Austin Slater) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the OVER after the Game Total opened at 8.0 Runs and is now 8.5 Runs

·  The Giants Moneyline has 76% of the cash and 51% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The most profitable market for the San Francisco Giants has been their Run Line which is 27-15 generating + 15.10 Units (29% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Cincinnati Reds has been their Game Total Over which is 26-12 generating + 12.70 Units (29% ROI)

·  Kevin Gausman's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)

Baltimore Orioles (17-24) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (24-19)

O/U: 8.0 | BAL -120 | TB + 100

John Means (THE BAT's No. 30 SP) vs. Ryan Yarbrough (THE BAT's No. 82 SP)

Vic Carapazza (Extreme Pitchers Umpire - No. 19 in MLB)

Oriole Park at Camden Yards (No. 6 Runs | No. 7 HR | No. 24 K)

82 degrees (No. 3 hottest today)

5 mph out to CF (No. 7 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  This season, John Means's fastball (92.0 mph) has been 1.4 mph slower than it was in 2020

·  John Means is a flyball pitcher (42% FB% since 2019) and Oriole Park at Camden Yards is the No. 4 most extreme park in baseball for boosting home runs

·  John Means and his 1.21 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 3.69 thus far in 2021

·  Ryan Yarbrough's sinker usage (12% in 2021, 23% in 2020) has decreased 11% this season

·  The Rays have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Brett Phillips, Mike Zunino, Willy Adames)

·  Tampa Bay boasts 4 active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB (Willy Adames, Mike Zunino, Brandon Lowe, Austin Meadows)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Baltimore Orioles Moneyline opening price of -110 has steamed 10 cents and is now -120

·  The most profitable market for the Tampa Bay Rays has been their Run Line which is 27-16 generating + 9.75 Units (16% ROI)

·  The Baltimore Orioles Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 23-16 resulting in + 5.40 Units (12% ROI)

·  John Means's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)

Seattle Mariners (21-22) vs. Detroit Tigers (16-26)

O/U: 8.0 | SEA -145 | DET + 125

Logan Gilbert (THE BAT's No. 125 SP) vs. Tarik Skubal (THE BAT's No. 240 SP)

Edwin Moscoso (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 3 in MLB)

T-Mobile Park (No. 26 Runs | No. 6 HR | No. 1 K)

57 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

7 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Tarik Skubal's spin rate (2230 rpm) has decreased by 192 rpm in 2021

·  Tarik Skubal may be especially susceptible to the long-ball today pitching in the No. 7 best home run park in baseball (T-Mobile Park) given his flyball tendencies (48% FB% since 2019)

·  Given that Flyball pitchers are least effective against Groundball hitters, Tarik Skubal (48% FB% since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with two Groundball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  THE BAT X projects the Mariners (No. 4 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.281 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  The Tigers have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 7 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.283 wOBA going forward

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 8.5 Runs and is now 8.0 Runs

·  The opening Moneyline for the Mariners was -130, but is now -145 after it steamed 15 cents

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 96% of the cash and 61% of the bet tickets is on the Mariners

·  The most profitable market for the Seattle Mariners has been their Run Line which is 26-17 generating + 6.45 Units (11% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Detroit Tigers has been their Game Total Under which is 25-17 generating + 6.25 Units (14% ROI)

·  Nomar Mazara's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 360/-710)

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