MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Wednesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

TODAY'S RANKINGS ROUND-UP

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYY - Gerrit Cole (No. 2 out of 298)

2. MIL - Brandon Woodruff (No. 6)

3. PHI - Zack Wheeler (No. 11)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. CLE - Sam Hentges (No. 287 out of 298)

2. SEA - Justin Dunn (No. 286)

3. WSH - Jon Lester (No. 285)

Today's Hottest Games

1. MIA at ARI (84 degrees)

2. NYY at TB (72 degrees)

3. STL at MIL (72 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. TOR at ATL (52 degrees)

2. CHC at CLE (52 degrees)

3. CIN at PIT (54 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 5.67 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -115

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 5.12 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -135

·  Philadelphia Phillies

Projected: 4.94 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 100

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 2.93 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -140

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 3.04 runs

·  St. Louis Cardinals

Projected: 3.18 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -145

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Athletics at Red Sox

Projected: 9.55 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

·  Angels at Astros

Projected: 9.47 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -110

·  Mariners at Dodgers

Projected: 9.37 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Cardinals at Brewers

Projected: 6.99 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O + 100

·  Padres at Rockies

Projected: 7.25 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O + 100

·  Reds at Pirates

Projected: 7.32 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -120

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

Cleveland Indians (19-14) vs. Chicago Cubs (17-18)

O/U: 8 | CLE -140 | CHC + 120

(THE BAT's No. SP) vs. (THE BAT's No. SP)

Lance Barksdale (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 25 in MLB)

Progressive Field (No. Runs | No. 13 HR | No. 17 K)

52 degrees (No. 2 coldest today)

7 mph in from LF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Sam Hentges may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 83 pitches

·  Zach Davies (87.0 mph) has lost nearly a full mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Zach Davies has been throwing a sinker (15% increase) far more often in 2021 (54% usage) than he did in 2020 (39% usage)

·  The Cleveland Indians's 21.8 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the #5 least on today's slate of games

·  The Indians' 0.291 team wOBA makes them the #2 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Indians have four players (Amed Rosario, Jordan Luplow, Eddie Rosario, Cesar Hernandez) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, #2 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Cubs are the No. 3 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 20.9% according to THE BAT X

·  The Cubs offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras, Jason Heyward, David Bote)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Indians Moneyline opening price of -110 is gaining heavy steam and is now -140

·  The Game Total opened at 9.0 Runs, but is now 8.0 Runs after significant movement toward the UNDER moved the Total a full run

·  The Indians Run Line has 91% of the cash and 61% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  This season the Cubs Team Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 23-10 resulting in + 11.25 Units (29% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Cleveland Indians has been their Run Line which is 20-13 generating + 5.10 Units (12% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Jose Ramirez's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 340/-650)

Chicago White Sox (20-13) vs. Minnesota Twins (12-21)

O/U: 8 | CWS -145 | MIN + 125

(THE BAT's No. SP) vs. (THE BAT's No. SP)

Sean Barber (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 40 in MLB)

Guaranteed Rate Field (No. Runs | No. 3 HR | No. 8 K)

55 degrees (No. 4 coldest today)

5 mph in from LF (No. 6 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Dallas Keuchel has been throwing a cutter (12% increase) far less often in 2021 (19% usage) than he did in 2020 (31% usage)

·  Guaranteed Rate Field is baseball's No. 3 best park for home runs, but Dallas Keuchel's groundball-heavy skillset (58% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Dallas Keuchel (58% GB% since 2019) projects to face three Flyball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Groundball pitchers perform worst against Flyball hitters

·  So far in 2021, Dallas Keuchel has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitcher, boasting a 3.79 ERA despite a 4.59 FIP

·  This season, J.A. Happ's fastball (89.6 mph) has been 1.4 mph slower than it was in 2020

·  J.A. Happ has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against 9 opposite-handed hitters today

·  The Chicago White Sox's 20.6 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the second-lowest on today's slate of games

·  THE BAT X views the White Sox as the No. 3 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The White Sox have four players (Leury Garcia, Nick Madrigal, Tim Anderson, Adam Eaton) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, tied for most in MLB

·  Minnesota boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Max Exit Velocity% this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB (Miguel Sano, Nelson Cruz, Mitch Garver, Josh Donaldson)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 8.5 Runs and is now 8.0 Runs

·  The opening Moneyline for the White Sox was -130, but is now -145 after it steamed 15 cents

·  The Minnesota Twins Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 19-12 resulting in + 6.00 Units (17% ROI)

·  The Chicago White Sox Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 17-16 resulting in + 3.75 Units (10% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is J.A. Happ's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+ 115/-150)

Los Angeles Dodgers (19-17) vs. Seattle Mariners (18-18)

O/U: 8 | LAD -255 | SEA + 215

(THE BAT's No. SP) vs. (THE BAT's No. SP)

Dodger Stadium (No. Runs | No. 8 HR | No. 22 K)

68 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)

7 mph out to RF (No. 3 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Julio Urias is projected to face seven opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his advantage given his large reverse platoon split

·  Justin Dunn (92.8 mph) has added 2.2 mph to his fastball velocity this season

·  Justin Dunn's fastball spin rate (2360 rpm) has jumped 120 rpm since 2020

·  Justin Dunn may be especially susceptible to the long-ball today pitching in the #9 best home run park in baseball (Dodger Stadium) given his flyball tendencies (43% FB% since 2019)

·  Flyball pitchers tend to perform better against Groundball hitters, and Justin Dunn (43% FB% since 2019) is projected to face 3 of them today

·  So far in 2021, Justin Dunn has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitcher, boasting a 3.51 ERA despite a 5.23 FIP

·  The Dodgers have three players (A.J. Pollock, Chris Taylor, Gavin Lux) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 6 (tie) most in MLB

·  Seattle boasts five active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, tied for most in MLB (Jose Marmolejos, Mitch Haniger, Kyle Seager, Dylan Moore, Kyle Lewis)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 74% of the bet tickets and 51% of the cash on the Dodgers

·  The Seattle Mariners Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 23-13 resulting in + 8.00 Units (16% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Los Angeles Dodgers has been their Game Total Over which is 20-16 generating + 2.50 Units (6% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Corey Seager's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 335/-630)

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