MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Wednesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. SD - Joe Musgrove (No. 13 out of 336)

2. PHI - Aaron Nola (No. 15)

3. LAA - Shohei Ohtani (No. 21)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. DET - Wily Peralta (No. 332 out of 336)

2. CLE - Logan Allen (No. 328)

3. PIT - Chad Kuhl (No. 314)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. MIA at PHI - Phil Cuzzi (No. 5 out of 110)

2. MIN at CWS - Adam Hamari (No. 6)

3. CHC at MIL - Jeremie Rehak (No. 11)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. KC at BOS - Shane Livensparger (No. 12 out of 110)

2. LAA at NYY - John Libka (No. 13)

3. SEA at TOR - David Rackley (No. 29)

Today's Hottest Games

1. MIA at PHI (93 degrees)

2. LAA at NYY (93 degrees)

3. TB at WSH (91 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. TEX at OAK (58 degrees)

2. SEA at TOR (71 degrees)

3. BAL at HOU (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  San Diego Padres

Projected: 6.08 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -115

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 5.85 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -120

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.79 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -135

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Detroit Tigers

Projected: 3.39 runs

·  Texas Rangers

Projected: 3.58 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O 115

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.62 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O 120

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Royals at Red Sox

Projected: 11.06 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.0 O -105

·  Rays at Nationals

Projected: 11.04 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -110

·  Angels at Yankees

Projected: 10.91 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Tigers at Indians

Projected: 7.54 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -105

·  Rangers at Athletics

Projected: 7.65 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -110

·  D-Backs at Cardinals

Projected: 8.09 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -105

 

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

Milwaukee Brewers (47-33) vs. Chicago Cubs (42-38)

 

O/U: 9.0 | MIL -160 | CHC 140

 

Alec Bettinger (THE BAT's No. 255 SP) vs. Jake Arrieta (THE BAT's No. 230 SP)

Jeremie Rehak (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 11 in MLB)

American Family Field (No. 15 Runs | No. 9 HR | No. 6 K)

80 degrees (No. 7 hottest today)

4 mph out to LF (No. 5 weakest winds today)

 

DATA NUGGETS

·  This season, Jake Arrieta's fastball (90.6 mph) has been nearly a full mph slower than it was in 2020

·  Jake Arrieta's changeup usage (6% in 2021, 17% in 2020) has decreased 11% this season

·  The Brewers are the most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 28.4% according to THE BAT X

·  The Brewers have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 1 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.297 wOBA going forward

·  Milwaukee boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Sprint Speed this season, No. 8 (tie) most in MLB (Christian Yelich, Avisail Garcia, Willy Adames)

·  The Cubs are the No. 4 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 26.7% according to THE BAT X

·  THE BAT X projects the Cubs (No. 7 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.303 wOBA) thus far in 2021

 

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is reverse line movement on the Brewers Moneyline as it's dropped from -145 to -160 despite only getting 38% of the cash

·  The Game Total has moved toward the OVER after the Total opened at 8.5 Runs and is now 9.0 Runs

·  The Cubs Run Line has 72% of the bet tickets and 68% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 72% of the bet tickets and 68% of the cash is on the Cubs

·  The Chicago Cubs Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 47-30 resulting in 13.19 Units (15% ROI)

·  The Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline has been their most profitable market this season and is 47-33 resulting in 5.85 Units (5% ROI)

 

Cleveland Indians (42-33) vs. Detroit Tigers (34-45)

 

O/U: 8.5 | CLE -150 | DET 130

 

Cal Quantrill (THE BAT's No. 185 SP) vs. Jose Urena (THE BAT's No. 313 SP)

Progressive Field (No. 5 Runs | No. 13 HR | No. 17 K)

76 degrees (No. 6 coldest today)

7 mph across the field

 

DATA NUGGETS

·  While THE BAT projects Cal Quantrill's ERA going forward to be 4.56, his actual has been 3.64 ERA, indicating some regression may be in order

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform better against Fly ball hitters, and Jose Urena (50% GB% since 2019) is projected to face three of them today

·  The projected lineup for the Indians holds three extremely strikeout-prone bats today: Austin Hedges, Bradley Zimmer, Bobby Bradley. THE BAT projects all for a Austin Hedges, Bradley Zimmer, Bobby Bradley underlying K%

·  THE BAT X projects the Indians (No. 5 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.300 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  Cleveland boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Sprint Speed this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB (Amed Rosario, Jose Ramirez, Cesar Hernandez, Harold Ramirez)

·  The Tigers are the No. 5 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 26.6% according to THE BAT X

·  The Tigers have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30% , according to THE BAT X (Akil Baddoo, Jake Rogers, Daz Cameron)

 

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total UNDER opened at 10.0 Runs ( 100), but is now UNDER 8.5 (-115) and is showing the most line movement on the slate today

·  The Tigers Moneyline opening price of 160 is gaining heavy steam and is now 130

 

Cleveland Indians (42-33) vs. Detroit Tigers (34-45)

 

O/U: 8.5 | CLE -150 | DET 130

 

Logan Allen (THE BAT's No. 328 SP) vs. Wily Peralta (THE BAT's No. 332 SP)

Progressive Field (No. 5 Runs | No. 13 HR | No. 17 K)

76 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

7 mph across the field

 

DATA NUGGETS

·  Logan Allen may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 69 pitches

·  Logan Allen is projected to face eight opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split

·  Wily Peralta may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 70 pitches

·  Strikeouts against Cleveland may be easy to come by today, as three players (Austin Hedges, Bradley Zimmer, Bobby Bradley) project for a 30% underlying K%, via THE BAT X

·  The Tigers are the No. 2 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 26.9% according to THE BAT X

 

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is significant movement toward the UNDER as the Game Total has moved a full run, after it opened at 9.5 Runs and is now 8.5 Runs

·  The Detroit Tigers Moneyline opening price of 150 has steamed 20 cents and is now 130

·  The Tigers Moneyline has 83% of the bet tickets and 98% of the cash making it the most lopsided action on the slate

·  The most profitable market for the Cleveland Indians has been their Game Total Over which is 42-31 generating 8.40 Units (10% ROI)

·  The Detroit Tigers Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 43-34 resulting in 5.95 Units (7% ROI)

 

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