MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Wednesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Brandon Woodruff (No. 7 out of 294)

2. SD - Joe Musgrove (No. 13)

3. LAA - Shohei Ohtani (No. 19)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. PIT - Chase De Jong (No. 290 out of 294)

2. BAL - Thomas Eshelman (No. 281)

3. TEX - Mike Foltynewicz (No. 254)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. ATL at NYM - Ron Kulpa (No. 1 out of 110)

2. TOR at MIA - Mike Estabrook (No. 2)

3. MIL at ARI - Ryan Blakney (No. 14)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. WSH at PHI - Carlos Torres (No. 10 out of 110)

2. HOU at BAL - Adam Beck (No. 14)

3. OAK at TEX - Andy Fletcher (No. 19)

Today's Hottest Games

1. MIL at ARI (78 degrees)

2. SF at LAA (76 degrees)

3. KC at NYY (74 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. CWS at PIT (67 degrees)

2. COL at SEA (68 degrees)

3. LAD at SD (68 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Houston Astros

Projected: 5.94 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -115

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 5.39 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 110

·  Oakland Athletics

Projected: 5.02 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -135

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 3.35 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -130

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.43 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 110

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.68 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Astros at Orioles

Projected: 10.24 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O + 100

·  Royals at Yankees

Projected: 9.85 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -105

·  Cardinals at Tigers

Projected: 9.42 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Blue Jays at Marlins

Projected: 7.24 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O + 100

·  Brewers at D-Backs

Projected: 7.90 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -105

·  Dodgers at Padres

Projected: 8.14 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O + 100

 

GAMES OF THE DAY

Pittsburgh Pirates (26-45) vs. Chicago White Sox (43-30)

O/U: 8.5 | PIT + 140 | CWS -160

Chase De Jong (THE BAT's No. 290 SP) vs. Dylan Cease (THE BAT's No. 85 SP)

PNC Park (No. 22 Runs | No. 26 HR | No. 25 K)

67 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

3 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Chase De Jong's skillset (39% FB% since 2019) ought to play well in PNC Park (No. 4 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Given that Fly ball pitchers are least effective against Ground ball hitters, Chase De Jong (39% FB% since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with three Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Chase De Jong's large reverse platoon split makes him especially effective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face six of them today

·  So far in 2021, Chase De Jong has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitcher, boasting a 4.26 ERA despite a 5.57 FIP

·  Dylan Cease (95.4 mph) has lost 1.5 mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Dylan Cease is projected to face seven opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his advantage given his reverse platoon split

·  The White Sox (26.8 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 2 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  THE BAT X views the White Sox as the No. 4 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The White Sox Run Line opening price of -1.5 (+ 105) has steamed 10 cents and is now -1.5 (-105)

·  The Run Line has lopsided action today with 72% of the bet tickets and 98% of the cash on the White Sox

·  The White Sox Moneyline has 72% of the bet tickets and 69% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  Dylan Cease's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)

New York Yankees (38-34) vs. Kansas City Royals (33-38)

O/U: 10.0 | NYY -170 | KC + 155

Michael King (THE BAT's No. 134 SP) vs. Danny Duffy (THE BAT's No. 44 SP)

Gabe Morales (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 24 in MLB)

Yankee Stadium (No. 17 Runs | No. 2 HR | No. 15 K)

74 degrees (No. 3 hottest today)

4 mph in from RF (No. 5 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Danny Duffy may be limited today, with THE BAT projecting a maximum pitch count of roughly 55 pitches

·  Thus far in 2021, Danny Duffy's fastball (93.2 mph) has been 1.6 mph faster than it was last season

·  Danny Duffy's fastball spin rate (2279 rpm) has jumped 106 rpm since 2020

·  Danny Duffy is a fly ball pitcher (36% FB% since 2019) and Yankee Stadium is the No. 2 most extreme park in baseball for boosting home runs

·  Danny Duffy and his 1.94 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 3.78 thus far in 2021

·  The Yankees have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 1 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.309 wOBA going forward

·  The Yankees have four players (Giancarlo Stanton, Rougned Odor, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Royals offense is quite fast; they have the No. 3 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Hunter Dozier, Michael A. Taylor, Whit Merrifield, Nicky Lopez)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the OVER after the Game Total opened at 9.5 Runs and is now 10.0 Runs

·  The Yankees Run Line has steamed 15 cents as it opened at -1.5 (+ 125) and is now -1.5 (+ 110)

·  There is lopsided action on the Game Total as 85% of the bet tickets and 61% of the cash is on the OVER

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 69% of the bet tickets and 75% of the cash is on the Yankees

·  There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 75% of the bet tickets and 67% of the cash is on the Yankees

Baltimore Orioles (23-50) vs. Houston Astros (45-28)

O/U: 10 | BAL + 170 | HOU -200

Thomas Eshelman (THE BAT's No. 281 SP) vs. Jose Urquidy (THE BAT's No. 118 SP)

Adam Beck (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 14 in MLB)

Oriole Park at Camden Yards (No. 6 Runs | No. 7 HR | No. 24 K)

74 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

4 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Thomas Eshelman may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 80 pitches

·  Jose Urquidy is a fly ball pitcher (38% FB% since 2019) and Oriole Park at Camden Yards is the No. 4 most extreme park in baseball for boosting home runs

·  Jose Urquidy and his 3.65 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 4.22 thus far in 2021

·  Baltimore boasts five active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Max Exit Velocity% this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB (Maikel Franco, Trey Mancini, Pedro Severino, Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle)

·  The Astros (19.2 K%, via THE BAT X) have the least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  According to THE BAT X, the Astros and their 0.343 wOBA have been the No. 2 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Astros offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 1 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Myles Straw, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has moved toward the UNDER after the Total opened at 10.5 Runs and is now 10.0 Runs

·  This game has the most lopsided Moneyline today as 77% of the bet tickets and 86% of the cash is on the Astros

·  The Run Line has lopsided action today with 80% of the bet tickets and 81% of the cash on the Astros

·  Yordan Alvarez's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 275/-470)

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