MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Wednesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. LAD - Walker Buehler (No. 22 out of 296)

2. CWS - Lance Lynn (No. 25)

3. MIA - Pablo Lopez (No. 36)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. BAL - Matt Harvey (No. 280 out of 296)

2. CIN - Vladimir Gutierrez (No. 274)

3. WSH - Jon Lester (No. 272)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. WSH at ATL - Phil Cuzzi (No. 2 out of 110)

2. PHI at CIN - Bill Miller (No. 5)

3. STL at LAD - Tripp Gibson (No. 8)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. MIA at TOR - Greg Gibson (No. 12 out of 110)

2. MIN at BAL - Fieldin Culbreth (No. 16)

3. TB at NYY - Ramon De Jesus (No. 19)

Today's Hottest Games

1. OAK at SEA (79 degrees)

2. NYM at ARI (78 degrees)

3. WSH at ATL (78 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. PHI at CIN (65 degrees)

2. CWS at CLE (66 degrees)

3. MIA at TOR (67 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Minnesota Twins

Projected: 5.68 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 110

·  Texas Rangers

Projected: 5.67 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -105

·  Atlanta Braves

Projected: 5.46 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  St. Louis Cardinals

Projected: 3.88 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -130

·  Seattle Mariners

Projected: 3.92 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -100

·  Chicago Cubs

Projected: 3.95 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -110

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Rangers at Rockies

Projected: 11.05 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.0 O -110

·  Nationals at Braves

Projected: 10.77 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -110

·  Twins at Orioles

Projected: 10.07 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Padres at Cubs

Projected: 8.01 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -120

·  White Sox at Indians

Projected: 8.46 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -105

·  Marlins at Blue Jays

Projected: 8.71 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -115

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

Cleveland Indians (30-24) vs. Chicago White Sox (33-22)

O/U: 8 | CLE + 140 | CWS -160

Jean Carlos Mejia (THE BAT's No. 61 SP) vs. Lance Lynn (THE BAT's No. 25 SP)

Brian Gorman (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 20 in MLB)

Progressive Field (No. 4 Runs | No. 13 HR | No. 17 K)

66 degrees (No. 2 coldest today)

4 mph out to LF (No. 5 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Jean Carlos Mejia may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 70 pitches

·  Lance Lynn has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against 6 opposite-handed hitters today

·  Lance Lynn's 1.37 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 3.61 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  The Cleveland Indians's21.8 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 3 least on today's slate of games

·  The Indians' 0.292 team wOBA makes them the No. 3 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Indians offense is quite fast; they have the No. 4 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Jose Ramirez, Amed Rosario, Cesar Hernandez)

·  The White Sox (22.1 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 5 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The White Sox (0.327 wOBA) have been the luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  The White Sox offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 2 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Jose Abreu, Andrew Vaughn, Yasmani Grandal)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 8.5 Runs and is now 8.0 Runs

·  There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 86% of the cash and 56% of the bet tickets is on the White Sox

·  The most profitable market for the Chicago White Sox has been their Run Line, which is 29-25 generating + 9.65 Units (16% ROI)

·  The Cleveland Indians Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 28-21 resulting in + 4.73 Units (8% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks (20-36) vs. New York Mets (26-21)

O/U: 8.5 | ARI -120 | NYM + 100

Madison Bumgarner (THE BAT's No. 128 SP) vs. David Peterson (THE BAT's No. 98 SP)

Jordan Baker (Extreme Hitters Umpire - No. 30 in MLB)

Chase Field (No. 8 Runs | No. 25 HR | No. 26 K)

78 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Madison Bumgarner (90.5 mph) has added 2.6 mph to his fastball velocity this season

·  Madison Bumgarner has added 105 rpm of spin to his fastball (2500 rpm) in 2021

·  As an extreme flyball pitcher (38% FB% since 2019), Madison Bumgarner matches up well with Chase Field (No. 2 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Given that fly ball pitchers are least effective against Groundball hitters, Madison Bumgarner (38% FB% since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with 3 Groundball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  David Peterson is projected to face seven opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split

·  THE BAT's 4.16 projected ERA for David Peterson is quite a bit better than his 4.91 ERA this season

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Arizona Diamondbacks’ moneyline opening price of -110 has steamed 10 cents and is now -120

·  There is lopsided action on the Game Total as 70% of the bet tickets and 77% of the cash is on the OVER

·  This season the Mets Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 26-19 resulting in + 4.35 Units (8% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Diamondbacks has been their Game Total Over, which is 29-26 generating + 0.30 Units (0% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers (32-23) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (31-24)

O/U: 8 | LAD -245 | STL + 205

Walker Buehler (THE BAT's No. 22 SP) vs. Carlos Martinez (THE BAT's No. 132 SP)

Tripp Gibson (Extreme Pitchers Umpire - No. 8 in MLB)

Dodger Stadium (No. 18 Runs | No. 8 HR | No. 22 K)

72 degrees (No. 6 coldest today)

7 mph out to RF (No. 4 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Walker Buehler's fastball velocity (94.7 mph) has been down 1.8 mph from where it was in 2020 so far this season

·  Walker Buehler's fastball spin rate (2642 rpm) has jumped nearly 100 rpm since 2020

·  So far in 2021, Walker Buehler has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitchers, boasting a 2.66 ERA despite a 3.65 FIP

·  Dodger Stadium is baseball's No. 8 best park for home runs, but Carlos Martinez's groundball-heavy skillset (54% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform worse against fly ball hitters, and Carlos Martinez (54% GB% since 2019) is projected to face 4 of them today

·  Los Angeles boasts 3 active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB (Albert Pujols, Justin Turner, Chris Taylor)

·  The Cardinals' 0.299 team wOBA makes them the No. 7 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Cardinals offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 2 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Justin Williams, Dylan Carlson, Nolan Arenado)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 88% of the cash and 57% of the bet tickets on the Dodgers

·  The most profitable market for the St. Louis Cardinals has been their Moneyline which is 31-24 generating + 7.30 Units (11% ROI)

·  The Los Angeles Dodgers Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 29-25 resulting in + 2.20 Units (4% ROI)

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