MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Wednesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYM - Jacob deGrom (No. 1 out of 296)

2. NYY - Gerrit Cole (No. 3)

3. PHI - Zack Wheeler (No. 5)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. PIT - Chase De Jong (No. 293 out of 296)

2. WSH - Paolo Espino (No. 291)

3. STL - Johan Oviedo (No. 268)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. NYY at TOR - CB Bucknor (No. 17 out of 110)

2. TEX at HOU - Vic Carapazza (No. 19)

3. MIA at STL - Ryan Additon (No. 31)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. BAL at CLE - Sam Holbrook (No. 7 out of 110)

2. TB at CWS - Fieldin Culbreth (No. 15)

3. MIN at SEA - Greg Gibson (No. 16)

Today's Hottest Games

1. SD at COL (101 degrees)

2. DET at KC (89 degrees)

3. BOS at ATL (83 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. NYY at TOR (64 degrees)

2. ARI at SF (68 degrees)

3. BAL at CLE (69 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  San Diego Padres

Projected: 6.66 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O -120

·  Houston Astros

Projected: 5.24 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O 110

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 5.22 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -125

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Chicago Cubs

Projected: 2.98 runs | Vegas O/U: 1.5 O -155

·  St. Louis Cardinals

Projected: 3.52 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -110

·  Milwaukee Brewers

Projected: 3.58 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O 120

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Padres at Rockies

Projected: 11.88 runs | Vegas O/U: 12.0 O -110

·  Tigers at Royals

Projected: 9.62 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -115

·  Red Sox at Braves

Projected: 9.38 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O 100

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Marlins at Cardinals

Projected: 7.15 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -105

·  Reds at Brewers

Projected: 7.17 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -105

·  Cubs at Mets

Projected: 7.20 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O -105

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

Kansas City Royals (30-36) vs. Detroit Tigers (28-39)

 

O/U: 9.0 | KC -145 | DET 125

 

Brady Singer (THE BAT's No. 64 SP) vs. Tarik Skubal (THE BAT's No. 163 SP)

Kauffman Stadium (No. 11 Runs | No. 30 HR | No. 29 K)

89 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

8 mph across the field

 

DATA NUGGETS

·  Brady Singer's fastball usage (1% in 2021, 45% in 2020) has decreased 44% this season

·  Brady Singer has been throwing a sinker (47% increase) far more often in 2021 (60% usage) than he did in 2020 (13% usage)

·  Brady Singer has a huge platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against seven opposite-handed hitters today

·  Despite a 3.51 FIP, Brady Singer's unlucky ERA has been 1.34 points worse at 4.85

·  Tarik Skubal's spin rate (2222 rpm) has decreased by 200 rpm in 2021

·  Tarik Skubal has been throwing a fastball (11% increase) far less often in 2021 (50% usage) than he did in 2020 (61% usage)

·  Tarik Skubal's fly ball nature (44% FB% since 2019) should play well in Kauffman Stadium (No. 1 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  The Royals (21.8 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 2 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Royals offense is quite fast; they have the No. 2 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Nicky Lopez, Hunter Dozier, Michael A. Taylor, Whit Merrifield)

·  The Detroit Tigers' 26.2 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 5 most on today's slate of games

·  The Tigers have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30% , according to THE BAT X (Niko Goodrum, Akil Baddoo, Jake Rogers)

·  Detroit boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB (Akil Baddoo, Robbie Grossman, Niko Goodrum)

 

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Run Line has lopsided action today with 78% of the cash and 55% of the bet tickets on the Royals

·  The Royals Moneyline has 67% of the cash and 56% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The most profitable market for the Detroit Tigers has been their Game Total Under which is 38-27 generating 8.45 Units (11% ROI)

·  The Kansas City Royals Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 36-27 resulting in 7.37 Units (10% ROI)

·  Brady Singer's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-165/ 125)

 

 

Houston Astros (38-28) vs. Texas Rangers (25-42)

 

O/U: 9.0 | HOU -235 | TEX 195

 

Zack Greinke (THE BAT's No. 70 SP) vs. Jordan Lyles (THE BAT's No. 266 SP)

Vic Carapazza (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 19 in MLB)

Minute Maid Park (No. 23 Runs | No. 14 HR | No. 2 K)

72 degrees (No. 6 coldest today)

Roof Closed

 

DATA NUGGETS

·  Zack Greinke (88.3 mph) has added nearly a full mph to his fastball velocity this season

·  Zack Greinke has been throwing a sinker (13% increase) far less often in 2021 (6% usage) than he did in 2020 (19% usage)

·  Zack Greinke has been throwing a curveball (11% increase) far more often in 2021 (19% usage) than he did in 2020 (8% usage)

·  Zack Greinke's changeup usage (22% in 2021, 9% in 2020) has increased 13% this season

·  Zack Greinke's large reverse platoon split makes him especially effective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face six of them today

·  The spin rate on Jordan Lyles's fastball (2320 rpm) has increased by 175 rpm in 2021

·  Jordan Lyles has been throwing a slider (12% increase) far more often in 2021 (25% usage) than he did in 2020 (13% usage)

·  The Astros are the least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 18.6% according to THE BAT X

·  THE BAT X views the Astros as the No. 1 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Astros have six players (Carlos Correa, Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez, Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker) with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 most in MLB

·  The Rangers offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 7 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Joey Gallo, Nate Lowe, Adolis Garcia)

 

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total opened at 8.5 Runs, but is now 9.0 Runs as there is line movement toward the OVER

·  This game has the most lopsided Moneyline today as 91% of the bet tickets and 90% of the cash is on the Astros

·  The Astros Run Line has 81% of the bet tickets and 75% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The Houston Astros Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 39-26 resulting in 10.70 Units (15% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Texas Rangers has been their Team Total Over which is 36-30 generating 1.66 Units (2% ROI)

·  Zack Greinke's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/ 105) is the most popular prop for the game

 

St. Louis Cardinals (34-33) vs. Miami Marlins (29-38)

 

O/U: 7.5 | STL -115 | MIA -105

 

Johan Oviedo (THE BAT's No. 268 SP) vs. Sandy Alcantara (THE BAT's No. 42 SP)

Ryan Additon (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 31 in MLB)

Busch Stadium (No. 25 Runs | No. 24 HR | No. 27 K)

83 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

5 mph in from CF (No. 6 strongest winds today)

 

DATA NUGGETS

·  Sandy Alcantara is throwing a sinker 13% less often this season (26% usage) than he did last season (39% usage)

·  Sandy Alcantara is throwing a changeup 18% more often this season (28% usage) than he did last season (10% usage)

·  The Cardinals are the No. 2 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 27.4% according to THE BAT X

·  The Cardinals have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 4 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.297 wOBA going forward

·  The Marlins (30.1 K%, via THE BAT X) have the most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  Strikeouts against Miami may be easy to come by today, as five players (Deven Marrero, Jazz Chisholm, Jorge Alfaro, Lewis Brinson, Sandy Alcantara) project for a 30% underlying K%, via THE BAT X

·  THE BAT X views the Marlins as the No. 5 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Marlins offense is quite fast; they have the No. 2 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Jon Berti, Adam Duvall, Starling Marte, Jazz Chisholm)

 

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total UNDER opened at 8.0 Runs ( 100), but is now UNDER 7.5 (-115) and is showing the most line movement on the slate today

·  There is reverse line movement on the Cardinals Moneyline as it has dropped from -105 to -115 despite only getting 15% of the cash

·  The Game Total has two-way action as 51% of the bet tickets are on the UNDER, but 27% of the cash is on the OVER

·  The Marlins Moneyline has 85% of the cash and 51% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The most profitable market for the Miami Marlins has been their Game Total Under which is 35-28 generating 3.75 Units (5% ROI)

·  The St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline has been their most profitable market this season and is 34-33 resulting in 0.20 Units (0% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Sandy Alcantara's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts ( 110/-140)

 

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