MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Wednesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

 

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYY - Gerrit Cole (No. 3 out of 299)

2. CWS - Lance Lynn (No. 26)

3. SD - Yu Darvish (No. 29)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. BAL - Matt Harvey (No. 281 out of 299)

2. CIN - Vladimir Gutierrez (No. 266)

3. MIA - Braxton Garrett (No. 264)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. KC at LAA - Adam Hamari (No. 4 out of 110)

2. CHC at SD - Roberto Ortiz (No. 12)

3. WSH at TB - Ryan Wills (No. 19)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. SF at TEX - Shane Livensparger (No. 8 out of 110)

2. CLE at STL - Mark Carlson (No. 10)

3. SEA at DET - John Libka (No. 15)

Today's Hottest Games

1. NYY at MIN (92 degrees)

2. CLE at STL (83 degrees)

3. ATL at PHI (82 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. ARI at OAK (61 degrees)

2. SF at TEX (70 degrees)

3. KC at LAA (70 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Milwaukee Brewers

Projected: 5.89 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -120

·  New York Mets

Projected: 5.55 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -130

·  Houston Astros

Projected: 5.38 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 3.48 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O 110

·  Chicago Cubs

Projected: 3.74 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O 120

·  Texas Rangers

Projected: 3.79 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -125

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Brewers at Reds

Projected: 11.23 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -105

·  Astros at Red Sox

Projected: 10.69 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -105

·  Mets at Orioles

Projected: 10.07 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  D-Backs at Athletics

Projected: 7.80 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -120

·  Rockies at Marlins

Projected: 7.84 runs

·  Giants at Rangers

Projected: 8.07 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -110

 

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

Pittsburgh Pirates (23-36) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (35-25)

 

O/U: 9 | PIT 150 | LAD -165

 

Tyler Anderson (THE BAT's No. 180 SP) vs. Tony Gonsolin (THE BAT's No. 90 SP)

PNC Park (No. 21 Runs | No. 26 HR | No. 25 K)

79 degrees (No. 7 hottest today)

3 mph across the field

 

DATA NUGGETS

·  Given that fly ball pitchers are most effective against ground ball hitters, Tyler Anderson (35% FB% since 2019) is well-situated today with four ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Tony Gonsolin is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his advantage given his reverse platoon split

·  The Los Angeles Dodgers's 21.5 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 4 least on today's slate of games

·  THE BAT X projects the Dodgers (No. 7 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.322 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  The Dodgers offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they are tied for most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Chris Taylor, Albert Pujols, Justin Turner)

 

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is two-way action on the Game Total as 61% of the bet tickets are on the UNDER, but 2% of the cash is on the OVER

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 79% of the bet tickets and 51% of the cash is on the Dodgers

·  Mookie Betts's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs ( 325/-600)

 

Boston Red Sox (37-24) vs. Houston Astros (34-26)

 

O/U: 10 | BOS -140 | HOU 120

 

Nathan Eovaldi (THE BAT's No. 65 SP) vs. Jake Odorizzi (THE BAT's No. 98 SP)

Fenway Park (No. 3 Runs | No. 16 HR | No. 18 K)

80 degrees (No. 6 hottest today)

5 mph in from LF (No. 3 strongest winds today)

 

DATA NUGGETS

·  Nathan Eovaldi is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his disadvantage given his reverse platoon split

·  Nathan Eovaldi (3.78 ERA) has been underperforming his 2.45 FIP by 1.33 points; quite unlucky indeed

·  According to THE BAT X, the Red Sox and their 0.321 wOBA have been the No. 7 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Red Sox offense knows how to hit the ball hard: They are tied for the most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (J.D. Martinez, Bobby Dalbec, Xander Bogaerts, Hunter Renfroe, Rafael Devers)

·  The Astros (18.7 K%, via THE BAT X) have the least strikeout-heavy projected lineup in baseball today

·  According to THE BAT X, the Astros and their 0.332 wOBA have been the No. 3 luckiest offense in 2021

·  Houston boasts six active bats with a 75th percentile or higher xwOBA this season, No. 1 most in MLB (Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez, Yuli Gurriel, Carlos Correa, Kyle Tucker)

 

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most popular prop for the game is Nathan Eovaldi's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)

 

St. Louis Cardinals (31-30) vs. Cleveland Indians (32-26)

 

O/U: 7.5 | STL -130 | CLE 110

 

Adam Wainwright (THE BAT's No. 183 SP) vs. Jean Carlos Mejia (THE BAT's No. 62 SP)

Mark Carlson (Extreme Hitters Umpire - No. 10 in MLB)

Busch Stadium (No. 24 Runs | No. 24 HR | No. 27 K)

83 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

5 mph in from CF (No. 5 strongest winds today)

 

DATA NUGGETS

·  Jean Carlos Mejia may be limited today, with THE BAT projecting a maximum pitch count of roughly 65 pitches

·  Jean Carlos Mejia and his 0.00 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 3.81 thus far in 2021

·  The Cardinals have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 4 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.297 wOBA going forward

·  The Indians are the No. 5 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 25.5% according to THE BAT X

·  The Indians have four hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30% , according to THE BAT X (Jean Carlos Mejia, Rene Rivera, Bobby Bradley, Bradley Zimmer)

·  THE BAT X projects the Indians (No. 3 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.297 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  The Indians have three players (Cesar Hernandez, Jose Ramirez, Amed Rosario) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB

 

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has moved toward the UNDER after the Total opened at 8.0 Runs and is now 7.5 Runs

·  The opening Moneyline for the Cardinals was -120, but is now -130 after it steamed 10 cents

·  The Game Total has 64% of the bet tickets on the UNDER, but 45% of the cash is on the OVER resulting in two-way action

·  The Cardinals Moneyline has 69% of the cash and 54% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The most popular prop for the game is Jose Ramirez's Total Bases Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases ( 100/-135)

 

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