MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Wednesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYM - Jacob deGrom (No. 1 out of 341)

2. MIL - Corbin Burnes (No. 2)

3. PHI - Zack Wheeler (No. 3)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. CLE - Sam Hentges (No. 332 out of 341)

2. STL - Johan Oviedo (No. 324)

3. MIA - David Hess (No. 321)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. TOR at BAL - Jeremy Riggs (No. 5 out of 110)

2. CIN at KC - Jeremie Rehak (No. 16)

3. CWS at MIN - Ed Hickox (No. 25)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. PHI at CHC - Edwin Moscoso (No. 2 out of 110)

2. DET at TEX - John Libka (No. 9)

3. BOS at LAA - Adam Beck (No. 12)

Today's Hottest Games

1. MIL at NYM (91 degrees)

2. TOR at BAL (90 degrees)

3. MIL at NYM (87 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. STL at SF (57 degrees)

2. CWS at MIN (68 degrees)

3. WSH at SD (69 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 6.52 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O + 105

·  Atlanta Braves

Projected: 5.10 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 110

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 4.96 runs

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Milwaukee Brewers

Projected: 1.85 runs

·  New York Mets

Projected: 2.65 runs

·  Cleveland Indians

Projected: 3.00 runs

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Blue Jays at Orioles

Projected: 11.07 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.0 O + 100

·  Reds at Royals

Projected: 9.36 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O + 100

·  Braves at Pirates

Projected: 9.22 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Brewers at Mets

Projected: 4.50 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O + 100

·  Indians at Rays

Projected: 6.27 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O + 105

·  Phillies at Cubs

Projected: 7.69 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O + 105

GAMES OF THE DAY

Texas Rangers (34-52) vs. Detroit Tigers (39-47)

O/U: 8.0 | TEX -150 | DET + 130

Kyle Gibson (THE BAT's No. 109 SP) vs. Casey Mize (THE BAT's No. 160 SP)

John Libka (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 9 in MLB)

Globe Life Field (No. 20 Runs | No. 18 HR | No. 21 K)

70 degrees (No. 4 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Kyle Gibson is throwing a cutter 13% more often this season (13% usage) than he did last season (0% usage)

·  Kyle Gibson (52% GB% since 2019) projects to face two Fly ball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Ground ball pitchers perform worst against Fly ball hitters

·  Casey Mize's 3.55 ERA is 1.04 points better than his 4.59 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  The Rangers have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Eli White, Joey Gallo, Adolis Garcia)

·  According to THE BAT X, the Rangers and their 0.300 wOBA have been the No. 4 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Tigers (27.1 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 5 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  According to THE BAT X, the Tigers and their 0.302 wOBA have been the No. 7 luckiest offense in 2021

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 74% of the cash and 58% of the bet tickets is on the Rangers

·  This season the Tigers Moneyline has been their most profitable market and is 39-47 resulting in + 7.15 Units (8% ROI)

·  The Texas Rangers Team Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 48-37 resulting in + 5.33 Units (5% ROI)

·  Joey Gallo's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 295/-520)

San Diego Padres (51-37) vs. Washington Nationals (41-43)

O/U: 8.5 | SD -170 | WSH + 155

Chris Paddack (THE BAT's No. 59 SP) vs. Patrick Corbin (THE BAT's No. 121 SP)

Petco Park (No. 24 Runs | No. 20 HR | No. 10 K)

69 degrees (No. 3 coldest today)

5 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Thus far in 2021, Chris Paddack's fastball (94.2 mph) has been nearly a full mph faster than it was last season

·  Chris Paddack has a large reverse platoon split, making him less effective against same-handed hitters, which he's projected to face six of today

·  Chris Paddack has been quite unlucky this season, posting a 4.56 ERA despite a 3.62 FIP

·  Thus far in 2021, Patrick Corbin's fastball (91.2 mph) has been 1.6 mph faster than it was last season

·  Patrick Corbin is projected to face seven opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split

·  The Padres have five players (Eric Hosmer, Fernando Tatis Jr., Victor Caratini, Ha-seong Kim, Manny Machado) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Washington Nationals's 22.6 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 4 least on today's slate of games

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Padres Moneyline has 70% of the bet tickets and 65% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  This season the Nationals Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 53-28 resulting in + 22.50 Units (25% ROI)

·  The San Diego Padres Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 47-39 resulting in + 4.80 Units (5% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Juan Soto's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 395/-840)

Seattle Mariners (45-41) vs. New York Yankees (43-41)

O/U: 8.5 | SEA + 100 | NYY -120

Yusei Kikuchi (THE BAT's No. 122 SP) vs. Domingo German (THE BAT's No. 135 SP)

T-Mobile Park (No. 26 Runs | No. 6 HR | No. 1 K)

71 degrees (No. 6 coldest today)

8 mph out to CF (No. 8 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Yusei Kikuchi's fastball (95.1 mph) is nearly a full mph faster than it was in 2020

·  Yusei Kikuchi has added 114 rpm of spin to his fastball (2292 rpm) in 2021

·  T-Mobile Park is baseball's No. 9 best park for home runs, but Yusei Kikuchi's ground ball-heavy skillset (48% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Yusei Kikuchi's large platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face eight of them today

·  Yusei Kikuchi has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 3.18 ERA is 1.14 points below his 4.33 FIP

·  The Mariners have three players (Mitch Haniger, Kyle Seager, Dylan Moore) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 6 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Yankees' 0.313 team wOBA makes them the No. 1 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Yankees offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 6 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Mariners Run Line opening price of + 1.5 (-140) has steamed 15 cents and is now + 1.5 (-155)

·  The Seattle Mariners Moneyline has been their most profitable market this season and is 45-41 resulting in + 15.30 Units (17% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the New York Yankees has been their Team Total Under which is 48-33 generating + 12.56 Units (14% ROI)

·  Luis Garcia's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+ 120/-160) is the most popular prop for the game

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