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MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Wednesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. PHI - Zack Wheeler (No. 3 out of 338)

2. LAD - Walker Buehler (No. 18)

3. OAK - Sean Manaea (No. 19)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. ARI - Madison Bumgarner (No. 323 out of 338)

2. DET - Wily Peralta (No. 315)

3. TEX - Jordan Lyles (No. 304)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. DET at MIN - Jeremy Riggs (No. 4 out of 110)

2. OAK at SD - Ryan Blakney (No. 7)

3. CWS at KC - Roberto Ortiz (No. 14)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. COL at LAA - Greg Gibson (No. 19 out of 110)

2. MIL at PIT - James Hoye (No. 21)

3. CIN at CHC - Adrian Johnson (No. 40)

Today's Hottest Games

1. CWS at KC (94 degrees)

2. DET at MIN (90 degrees)

3. MIA at BAL (85 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. LAD at SF (62 degrees)

2. TOR at BOS (69 degrees)

3. ARI at TEX (70 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Cincinnati Reds

Projected: 5.74 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -125

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 5.45 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -110

·  Minnesota Twins

Projected: 5.44 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Washington Nationals

Projected: 3.21 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 110

·  San Francisco Giants

Projected: 3.47 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 100

·  Oakland Athletics

Projected: 4.01 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -120

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Reds at Cubs

Projected: 11.04 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -105

·  Blue Jays at Red Sox

Projected: 10.61 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -105

·  Marlins at Orioles

Projected: 10.06 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Dodgers at Giants

Projected: 7.91 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -110

·  Nationals at Phillies

Projected: 8.00 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -120

·  Athletics at Padres

Projected: 8.04 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -120

GAMES OF THE DAY

Cleveland Indians (49-49) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (51-50)

O/U: 9.0 | CLE -105 | STL -115

Zach Plesac (THE BAT's No. 103 SP) vs. Kwang-hyun Kim (THE BAT's No. 157 SP)

Progressive Field (No. 6 Runs | No. 13 HR | No. 17 K)

81 degrees (No. 8 hottest today)

7 mph in from LF (No. 3 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Zach Plesac's reverse platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face six of them today

·  Kwang Hyun Kim's fastball velocity (88.4 mph) has been down nearly a full mph from where it was in 2020 so far this season

·  Kwang Hyun Kim is projected to face nine opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his huge platoon split

·  So far in 2021, Kwang Hyun Kim has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitcher, boasting a 2.88 ERA despite a 3.64 FIP

·  The Indians are the No. 2 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 21.1% according to THE BAT X

·  The Indians have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 1 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.299 wOBA going forward

·  The Indians have three players (Amed Rosario, Cesar Hernandez, Harold Ramirez) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Cardinals have three players (Paul DeJong, Nolan Arenado, Dylan Carlson) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 94% of the cash and 51% of the bet tickets on the Cardinals

·  The Cleveland Indians Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 53-42 resulting in + 7.30 Units (7% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the St. Louis Cardinals has been their Team Total Under which is 53-42 generating + 7.03 Units (6% ROI)

·  Jose Ramirez's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 310/-555) is the most popular prop for the game

Boston Red Sox (62-39) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (49-47)

O/U: 9.0 | BOS + 120 | TOR -140

Garrett Richards (THE BAT's No. 202 SP) vs. Robbie Ray (THE BAT's No. 94 SP)

Fenway Park (No. 3 Runs | No. 16 HR | No. 18 K)

71 degrees (No. 4 coldest today)

7 mph in from CF (No. 6 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  This season, Garrett Richards' fastball (93.5 mph) has been 1.1 mph slower than it was in 2020

·  Garrett Richards' spin rate (2517 rpm) has decreased by 109 rpm in 2021

·  Garrett Richards' slider usage (26% in 2021, 37% in 2020) has decreased 11% this season

·  Robbie Ray's fastball (94.6 mph) is 1.1 mph faster than it was in 2020

·  The spin on Robbie Ray's fastball (2264 rpm) has been 156 rpm less than it was in 2020

·  Robbie Ray has been throwing a fastball (12% increase) far more often in 2021 (61% usage) than he did in 2020 (49% usage)

·  Robbie Ray has a huge platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against seven opposite-handed hitters today

·  Robbie Ray's 3.12 ERA is 0.98 points better than his 4.11 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  The Red Sox offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 2 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Hunter Renfroe, Bobby Dalbec, Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez)

·  The Blue Jays offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 4 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Randal Grichuk, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The opening Game Total has shown the most line movement today as it opened at UNDER 10.0 Runs (+ 100), but has been bet down to UNDER 9.0 (-115)

·  The Blue Jays Moneyline has steamed 15 cents as it opened at -125 and is now -140

·  This season the Red Sox Moneyline has been their most profitable market and is 62-39 resulting in + 15.50 Units (12% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Toronto Blue Jays has been their Run Line which is 52-44 generating + 0.45 Units (0% ROI)

·  Vladimir Guerrero Jr's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 195/-290)

Tampa Bay Rays (60-41) vs. New York Yankees (52-47)

O/U: 8.5 | TB -130 | NYY + 110

Michael Wacha (THE BAT's No. 223 SP) vs. Nestor Cortes (THE BAT's No. 136 SP)

Will Little (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 36 in MLB)

Tropicana Field (No. 29 Runs | No. 19 HR | No. 3 K)

72 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Michael Wacha is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his disadvantage given his large reverse platoon split

·  Nestor Cortes may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 60 pitches

·  Fly ball pitchers tend to perform worse against Ground ball hitters, and Nestor Cortes (38% FB% since 2019) is projected to face three of them today

·  Nestor Cortes and his 1.95 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 4.38 thus far in 2021

·  The Tampa Bay Rays's 21.3 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 3 least on today's slate of games

·  The Rays' 0.312 team wOBA makes them the No. 5 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Rays have four players (Mike Zunino, Randy Arozarena, Nelson Cruz, Yandy Diaz) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Yankees have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 2 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.315 wOBA going forward

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is reverse line movement on the Yankees Moneyline as it's dropped from + 120 to + 110 despite only getting 26% of the cash

·  The Rays Run Line has 71% of the bet tickets and 54% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The most profitable market for the Tampa Bay Rays has been their Run Line which is 58-43 generating + 12.75 Units (10% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the New York Yankees has been their Team Total Under which is 56-40 generating + 12.51 Units (11% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Nelson Cruz's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 275/-465)

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