MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Wednesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. LAD - Julio Urias (No. 35 out of 336)

2. HOU - Lance McCullers Jr. (No. 36)

3. SF - Logan Webb (No. 55)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. NYY - Asher Wojciechowski (No. 319 out of 336)

2. SD - Reiss Knehr (No. 310)

3. CLE - Eli Morgan (No. 296)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. SEA at COL - Ben May (No. 17 out of 110)

2. MIN at CWS - Chris Guccione (No. 20)

3. MIA at WSH - Cory Blaser (No. 27)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. TEX at DET - Chad Fairchild (No. 17 out of 110)

2. PHI at NYY - James Hoye (No. 22)

3. CLE at HOU - Jordan Baker (No. 24)

Today's Hottest Games

1. SEA at COL (91 degrees)

2. CHC at STL (87 degrees)

3. SF at LAD (82 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. BOS at TOR (70 degrees)

2. BAL at TB (72 degrees)

3. CLE at HOU (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Philadelphia Phillies

Projected: 6.21 runs

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 5.91 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -125

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.76 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -130

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Atlanta Braves

Projected: 3.43 runs

·  Cleveland Indians

Projected: 3.66 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 110

·  Baltimore Orioles

Projected: 3.96 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Mariners at Rockies

Projected: 11.32 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.0 O -120

·  Phillies at Yankees

Projected: 11.18 runs

·  Red Sox at Blue Jays

Projected: 10.87 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Padres at Braves

Projected: 7.49 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -105

·  Cubs at Cardinals

Projected: 8.34 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -110

·  Orioles at Rays

Projected: 8.48 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -120

GAMES OF THE DAY

Atlanta Braves (46-47) vs. San Diego Padres (55-42)

O/U: 8 | ATL -105 | SD -115

Kyle Muller (THE BAT's No. 155 SP) vs. Chris Paddack (THE BAT's No. 81 SP)

Truist Park (No. 9 Runs | No. 21 HR | No. 23 K)

76 degrees (No. 7 coldest today)

3 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Kyle Muller's 3.45 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 4.50 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  Chris Paddack's large reverse platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face six of them today

·  According to THE BAT X, the Braves and their 0.322 wOBA have been the No. 4 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Braves have four players (Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson, Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies) with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

·  According to THE BAT X, the Padres and their 0.321 wOBA have been the No. 7 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Padres offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 1 most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Victor Caratini, Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-seong Kim, Tommy Pham, Eric Hosmer, Manny Machado)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The opening Run Line for the Atlanta Braves was + 1.5 (-155), but is now + 1.5 (-165) after it steamed 10 cents

Milwaukee Brewers (56-40) vs. Kansas City Royals (38-55)

O/U: 9 | MIL -180 | KC + 160

Eric Lauer (THE BAT's No. 163 SP) vs. Brad Keller (THE BAT's No. 158 SP)

Lance Barksdale (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 25 in MLB)

American Family Field (No. 15 Runs | No. 9 HR | No. 6 K)

74 degrees (No. 6 coldest today)

9 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  So far in 2021, Eric Lauer has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitcher, boasting a 3.83 ERA despite a 4.87 FIP

·  Thus far in 2021, Brad Keller's fastball (93.6 mph) has been 1.4 mph faster than it was last season

·  Brad Keller's fastball usage (28% in 2021, 39% in 2020) has decreased 11% this season

·  Brad Keller has been throwing a sinker (10% increase) far more often in 2021 (32% usage) than he did in 2020 (22% usage)

·  Brad Keller's ground ball tendencies (50% GB% since 2019) ought to play well in homer-friendly American Family Field (No. 10 best HR park in baseball) today

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform better against Ground ball hitters, and Brad Keller (50% GB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today

·  The Brewers' 0.305 team wOBA makes them the No. 4 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  Milwaukee boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB (Luis Urias, Keston Hiura, Avisail Garcia, Omar Narvaez)

·  The Royals' 0.301 team wOBA makes them the No. 6 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Royals offense is quite fast; they have the No. 3 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Michael A. Taylor, Whit Merrifield, Nicky Lopez, Hunter Dozier)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 9.5 Runs and is now 9.0 Runs

·  The Brewers Run Line has steamed 10 cents as it opened at -1.5 (+ 115) and is now -1.5 (+ 105)

·  This game has the most lopsided Run Line today as 72% of the bet tickets and 71% of the cash is on the Brewers

·  The Moneyline has the most lopsided action today with 72% of the bet tickets and 71% of the cash on the Brewers

·  The UNDER has 70% of the cash and 60% of the bet tickets resulting in a lopsided handle for the Game Total

St. Louis Cardinals (47-48) vs. Chicago Cubs (47-48)

O/U: 8 | STL -125 | CHC + 105

Adam Wainwright (THE BAT's No. 145 SP) vs. Kyle Hendricks (THE BAT's No. 79 SP)

Jeff Nelson (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 29 in MLB)

Busch Stadium (No. 25 Runs | No. 24 HR | No. 27 K)

87 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

5 mph in from RF (No. 4 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  While THE BAT projects Adam Wainwright's ERA going forward to be 4.48, his actual has been 3.71 ERA, indicating some regression may be in order

·  Kyle Hendricks has a reverse platoon split, making him less effective against same-handed hitters, which he's projected to face six of today

·  The Cardinals are the No. 5 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 26.6% according to THE BAT X

·  The Cardinals' 0.295 team wOBA makes them the No. 2 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Cardinals offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 5 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Paul DeJong, Dylan Carlson, Nolan Arenado)

·  The Cubs (27.2 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 2 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Cubs have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Kyle Hendricks, Patrick Wisdom, Javier Baez)

·  The Cubs have four players (Willson Contreras, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Jason Heyward) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline opening price of -110 has steamed 15 cents and is now -125

·  The Game Total has lopsided action today with 77% of the bet tickets and 59% of the cash on the OVER

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 71% of the cash and 58% of the bet tickets is on the Cardinals

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