MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Wednesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. LAD - Max Scherzer (No. 6 out of 340)

2. MIL - Freddy Peralta (No. 16)

3. SD - Joe Musgrove (No. 20)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. WSH - Paolo Espino (No. 322 out of 340)

2. BAL - Matt Harvey (No. 300)

3. MIN - Charlie Barnes (No. 290)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. KC at CWS - Ron Kulpa (No. 2 out of 110)

2. SEA at TB - Vic Carapazza (No. 13)

3. BOS at DET - Jeremie Rehak (No. 23)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. SD at OAK - Gerry Davis (No. 15 out of 110)

2. HOU at LAD - Mark Carlson (No. 16)

3. SF at ARI - Ramon De Jesus (No. 26)

Today's Hottest Games

1. PIT at MIL (83 degrees)

2. CHC at COL (83 degrees)

3. HOU at LAD (81 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. SD at OAK (60 degrees)

2. LAA at TEX (70 degrees)

3. SEA at TB (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 6.31 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -110

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 5.82 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -135

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 5.60 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -130

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.17 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 125

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.56 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -135

·  Detroit Tigers

Projected: 3.66 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -125

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Cubs at Rockies

Projected: 10.39 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.0 O -110

·  Orioles at Yankees

Projected: 10.32 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O + 100

·  Astros at Dodgers

Projected: 9.98 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -125

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Mets at Marlins

Projected: 7.36 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -105

·  Angels at Rangers

Projected: 7.57 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -115

·  Pirates at Brewers

Projected: 8.17 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -115

GAMES OF THE DAY

Cincinnati Reds (56-51) vs. Minnesota Twins (45-62)

O/U: 9.5 | CIN -240 | MIN + 200

Luis Castillo (THE BAT's No. 21 SP) vs. Charlie Barnes (THE BAT's No. 290 SP)

Great American Ball Park (No. 2 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)

80 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

8 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Luis Castillo's fastball spin rate (2315 rpm) has jumped 127 rpm since 2020

·  Great American Ball Park is baseball's No. 1 best park for home runs, but Luis Castillo's ground ball-heavy skillset (56% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform worse against Fly ball hitters, and Luis Castillo (56% GB% since 2019) is projected to face three of them today

·  Charlie Barnes' 1.93 ERA is 4.27 points better than his 6.20 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  The Minnesota Twins' 27.8 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 3 most on today's slate of games

·  The Twins have five hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Brent Rooker, Miguel Sano, Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers, Charlie Barnes)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most line movement today is the Cincinnati Reds Moneyline as it opened at -190 before dropping to -240

·  The Game Total opened at 9.0 Runs, but is now 9.5 Runs as there is line movement toward the OVER

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 66% of the bet tickets and 55% of the cash on the Reds

·  Jesse Winker's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 370/-750) is the most popular prop for the game

Milwaukee Brewers (64-44) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (41-66)

O/U: 8.0 | MIL -275 | PIT + 235

Freddy Peralta (THE BAT's No. 16 SP) vs. Steven Brault (THE BAT's No. 172 SP)

American Family Field (No. 16 Runs | No. 9 HR | No. 6 K)

83 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

4 mph in from CF (No. 5 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  While THE BAT projects Freddy Peralta's ERA going forward to be 3.50, his actual has been 2.17 ERA, indicating some regression may be in order

·  Steven Brault has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against eight opposite-handed hitters today

·  THE BAT X projects the Brewers (No. 7 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.308 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  The Brewers have three players (Avisail Garcia, Tyrone Taylor, Willy Adames) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 6 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Pirates offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 1 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Gregory Polanco, Ben Gamel, Jacob Stallings, Bryan Reynolds)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has moved toward the UNDER after the Total opened at 8.5 Runs and is now 8.0 Runs

·  The Brewers Moneyline has 89% of the bet tickets and 60% of the cash making it the most lopsided action on the slate

·  The Brewers Run Line has 70% of the bet tickets and 62% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  Freddy Peralta's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110) is the most popular prop for the game

Washington Nationals (49-58) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (54-53)

O/U: 9.0 | WSH -115 | PHI -105

Paolo Espino (THE BAT's No. 322 SP) vs. Chase Anderson (THE BAT's No. 235 SP)

Nationals Park (No. 15 Runs | No. 12 HR | No. 14 K)

76 degrees (No. 7 coldest today)

8 mph in from RF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Paolo Espino (38% FB% since 2019) projects to face four Ground ball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Fly ball pitchers perform worst against Ground ball hitters

·  Paolo Espino has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 3.08 ERA is 1.06 points below his 4.15 FIP

·  Chase Anderson (39% FB% since 2019) projects to face six Ground ball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Fly ball pitchers perform worst against Ground ball hitters

·  According to THE BAT X, the Nationals and their 0.324 wOBA have been the No. 1 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Phillies offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 5 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Odubel Herrera, Bryce Harper, Jean Segura, Brad Miller)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is reverse line movement as only 26% of the cash is on the Washington Nationals, but their Moneyline has dropped from -110 to -115

·  The OVER has 88% of the bet tickets and 51% of the cash making it the most lopsided Game Total on the slate

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 74% of the cash and 60% of the bet tickets on the Phillies

·  The most popular prop for the game is Juan Soto's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 355/-700)

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