MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Wednesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

USATSI_16167486

This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. PHI - Zack Wheeler (No. 3 out of 339)

2. MIL - Brandon Woodruff (No. 5)

3. LAD - Walker Buehler (No. 20)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. STL - Jon Lester (No. 321 out of 339)

2. ARI - Tyler Gilbert (No. 308)

3. PIT - Bryse Wilson (No. 229)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. TEX at CLE - Doug Eddings (No. 4 out of 111)

2. KC at HOU - Nestor Ceja (No. 9)

3. TB at PHI - Dan Bellino (No. 12)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. LAA at BAL - Edwin Moscoso (No. 3 out of 111)

2. WSH at MIA - Nic Lentz (No. 12)

3. DET at STL - Carlos Torres (No. 17)

Today's Hottest Games

1. DET at STL (91 degrees)

2. COL at CHC (88 degrees)

3. LAA at BAL (87 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. KC at HOU (72 degrees)

2. WSH at MIA (72 degrees)

3. LAD at SD (75 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 5.57 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -110

·  Los Angeles Angels

Projected: 5.55 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -115

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 4.97 runs

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Chicago Cubs

Projected: 2.87 runs

·  Kansas City Royals

Projected: 3.25 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 115

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.26 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -115

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Twins at Red Sox

Projected: 10.51 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -110

·  Angels at Orioles

Projected: 9.86 runs

·  Rockies at Cubs

Projected: 9.34 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Rockies at Cubs

Projected: 6.72 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -105

·  Nationals at Marlins

Projected: 6.93 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -120

·  Royals at Astros

Projected: 7.55 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -115

GAMES OF THE DAY

Chicago Cubs (55-72) vs. Colorado Rockies (57-68)

O/U: 6.5 | CHC + 130 | COL -150

Zach Davies (THE BAT's No. 210 SP) vs. German Marquez (THE BAT's No. 24 SP)

Wrigley Field (No. 8 Runs | No. 17 HR | No. 20 K)

88 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

6 mph out to CF (No. 1 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Zach Davies is throwing a sinker 13% more often this season (52% usage) than he did last season (39% usage)

·  Justin Steele has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 3.22 ERA is 2.21 points below his 5.44 FIP

·  German Marquez (94.3 mph) has lost 1.0 mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Austin Gomber's fastball (2019 rpm) has lost 132 rpm of spin this season relative to 2020

·  German Marquez is throwing a slider 11% more often this season (28% usage) than he did last season (17% usage)

·  German Marquez (51% GB% since 2019) projects to face two Ground ball hitters today, which should play to his advantage since Ground ball pitchers perform best against Ground ball hitters

·  The Chicago Cubs' 28.8 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the most on today's slate of games

·  Strikeouts against Chicago may be easy to come by today, as four players (Patrick Wisdom, Michael Hermosillo, Robinson Chirinos, Zach Davies) project for a 30%+ underlying K%, via THE BAT X

·  According to THE BAT X, the Cubs and their 0.303 wOBA have been the No. 3 luckiest offense in 2021

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Colorado Rockies opened at -120 and are now -150 as there is heavy steam on the Moneyline

·  The Game Total opened at 7.0 Runs, but is now 6.5 Runs as there is line movement toward the UNDER

·  German Marquez's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-100/-130)

Philadelphia Phillies (63-62) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (78-48)

O/U: 8.5 | PHI -140 | TB + 120

Zack Wheeler (THE BAT's No. 3 SP) vs. Ryan Yarbrough (THE BAT's No. 100 SP)

Dan Bellino (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 12 in MLB)

Citizens Bank Park (No. 20 Runs | No. 4 HR | No. 12 K)

87 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

5 mph out to RF (No. 4 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Zack Wheeler has been throwing a slider (11% increase) far more often in 2021 (27% usage) than he did in 2020 (16% usage)

·  Ryan Yarbrough may be limited today, with THE BAT projecting a maximum pitch count of roughly 85 pitches

·  Ryan Yarbrough is throwing a sinker 11% less often this season (12% usage) than he did last season (23% usage)

·  THE BAT projects Ryan Yarbrough (4.02 projected ERA) to be much better going forward than his 4.57 ERA season-to-date indicates

·  The Phillies' 0.311 team wOBA makes them the No. 3 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Phillies have three players (Andrew McCutchen, Rhys Hoskins, Didi Gregorius) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Rays have five players (Ji-Man Choi, Brandon Lowe, Nelson Cruz, Brett Phillips, Mike Zunino) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the OVER after the Game Total opened at 8.0 Runs and is now 8.5 Runs

·  The Moneyline has 66% of the bet tickets on the Rays, but 61% of the cash is on the Phillies resulting in two-way action

·  The Tampa Bay Rays Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 74-52 resulting in + 19.75 Units (12% ROI)

·  Zack Wheeler's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-130/+ 100) is the most popular prop for the game

Miami Marlins (51-75) vs. Washington Nationals (54-70)

O/U: 7.5 | MIA -105 | WSH -115

Edward Cabrera (THE BAT's No. 168 SP) vs. Josiah Gray (THE BAT's No. 27 SP)

Nic Lentz (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 12 in MLB)

Marlins Park (No. 28 Runs | No. 29 HR | No. 16 K)

72 degrees (No. 2 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  As an extreme fly ball pitcher (53% FB% since 2019), Josiah Gray matches up well with Marlins Park (No. 6 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Fly ball pitchers tend to perform better against Fly ball hitters, and Josiah Gray (53% FB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today

·  Josiah Gray's 3.90 ERA is 2.83 points better than his 6.73 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  The Marlins (27.5 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 4 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Marlins have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Jazz Chisholm, Alex Jackson, Edward Cabrera)

·  The Marlins (0.296 wOBA) have been the No. 2 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  Strikeouts against Washington may be easy to come by today, as three players (Josiah Gray, Riley Adams, Lane Thomas) project for a 30%+ underlying K%, via THE BAT X

·  THE BAT X views the Nationals as the No. 1 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has moved toward the UNDER after the Total opened at 8.0 Runs and is now 7.5 Runs

·  There is two-way action on the Moneyline as 67% of the bet tickets are on the Nationals, but 56% of the cash is on the Marlins

·  The most profitable market for the Washington Nationals has been their Game Total Under which is 67-53 generating + 9.35 Units (7% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Miami Marlins has been their Team Total Under which is 66-56 generating + 2.19 Units (2% ROI)

·  Josiah Gray's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+ 115)

back to news

PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All

Close