MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Wednesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. ATL - Charlie Morton (No. 13 out of 340)

2. MIL - Freddy Peralta (No. 14)

3. STL - Jack Flaherty (No. 26)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. BAL - Spenser Watkins (No. 337 out of 340)

2. TEX - Mike Foltynewicz (No. 295)

3. COL - Chi Chi Gonzalez (No. 269)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. SEA at TEX - Ryan Blakney (No. 12 out of 111)

2. BAL at TB - Jeremy Riggs (No. 18)

3. OAK at CWS - Nick Mahrley (No. 24)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. CLE at MIN - Sam Holbrook (No. 9 out of 111)

2. LAA at DET - Adam Beck (No. 11)

3. BOS at NYY - Junior Valentine (No. 12)

Today's Hottest Games

1. SD at COL (92 degrees)

2. CLE at MIN (85 degrees)

3. CHC at CIN (84 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. NYM at SF (68 degrees)

2. SEA at TEX (70 degrees)

3. ATL at MIA (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  San Diego Padres

Projected: 7.48 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 6.60 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O -105

·  Cincinnati Reds

Projected: 6.10 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -130

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.19 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -125

·  St. Louis Cardinals

Projected: 3.72 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 115

·  Baltimore Orioles

Projected: 3.78 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -140

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Padres at Rockies

Projected: 14.07 runs | Vegas O/U: 14.0 O -110

·  Red Sox at Yankees

Projected: 11.24 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -115

·  Indians at Twins

Projected: 10.32 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Braves at Marlins

Projected: 7.58 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -120

·  Brewers at Cardinals

Projected: 7.80 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -110

·  Angels at Tigers

Projected: 8.82 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O + 100

GAMES OF THE DAY

Colorado Rockies (54-66) vs. San Diego Padres (67-55)

O/U: 14.0 | COL + 130 | SD -150

Chi Chi Gonzalez (THE BAT's No. 269 SP) vs. Jake Arrieta (THE BAT's No. 263 SP)

David Rackley (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 33 in MLB)

Coors Field (No. 1 Runs | No. 11 HR | No. 30 K)

92 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

6 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Chi Chi Gonzalez may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 39 pitches

·  The Rockies (29.0 K%, via THE BAT X) have the most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Rockies have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Dom Nunez, Sam Hilliard, Chi Chi Gonzalez)

·  THE BAT X projects the Rockies (No. 3 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.313 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  The Rockies offense is quite fast; they have the No. 5 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Trevor Story, Garrett Hampson, Yonathan Daza)

·  The Padres have six players (Eric Hosmer, Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-seong Kim, Tommy Pham, Victor Caratini, Manny Machado) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The San Diego Padres Moneyline is showing the most line movement today as it opened at -115 before dropping to -150

·  The Game Total opened at 13.5 Runs, but is now 14.0 Runs as there is line movement toward the OVER

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 65% of the bet tickets and 60% of the cash is on the Padres

·  The Colorado Rockies Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 66-52 resulting in + 7.90 Units (6% ROI)

·  This season the Padres Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 65-54 resulting in + 6.35 Units (5% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Fernando Tatis Jr.'s Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 150/-205)

St. Louis Cardinals (61-57) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (73-47)

O/U: 7.0 | STL + 105 | MIL -125

Jack Flaherty (THE BAT's No. 26 SP) vs. Freddy Peralta (THE BAT's No. 14 SP)

Ramon De Jesus (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 28 in MLB)

Busch Stadium (No. 25 Runs | No. 24 HR | No. 27 K)

84 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

7 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Freddy Peralta's skillset (41% FB% since 2019) ought to play well in Busch Stadium (No. 7 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Given that Fly ball pitchers are most effective against Fly ball hitters, Freddy Peralta (41% FB% since 2019) is well-situated today with three Fly ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Freddy Peralta and his 2.26 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 3.52 thus far in 2021

·  The Cardinals have three players (Dylan Carlson, Paul DeJong, Nolan Arenado) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Brewers have four players (Avisail Garcia, Eduardo Escobar, Luis Urias, Omar Narvaez) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The opening Moneyline for the Brewers was -115, but is now -125 after it steamed 10 cents

·  This season the Brewers Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 67-53 resulting in + 16.65 Units (11% ROI)

·  The St. Louis Cardinals Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 61-50 resulting in + 6.08 Units (5% ROI)

·  Freddy Peralta's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+ 105/-135)

Kansas City Royals (51-67) vs. Houston Astros (70-49)

O/U: 9.5 | KC + 155 | HOU -170

Brady Singer (THE BAT's No. 93 SP) vs. Zack Greinke (THE BAT's No. 92 SP)

Kauffman Stadium (No. 15 Runs | No. 30 HR | No. 29 K)

84 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)

9 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Brady Singer may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 82 pitches

·  Brady Singer has been throwing a fastball (43% increase) far less often in 2021 (2% usage) than he did in 2020 (45% usage)

·  Brady Singer has been throwing a sinker (45% increase) far more often in 2021 (58% usage) than he did in 2020 (13% usage)

·  Brady Singer is projected to face seven same-handed hitters today, which plays to his advantage given his large platoon split

·  Zack Greinke (88.3 mph) has added nearly a full mph to his fastball velocity this season

·  The spin on Zack Greinke's fastball (2223 rpm) has been 100 rpm less than it was in 2020

·  Zack Greinke has been throwing a sinker (13% increase) far less often in 2021 (6% usage) than he did in 2020 (19% usage)

·  Zack Greinke has been throwing a changeup (13% increase) far more often in 2021 (22% usage) than he did in 2020 (9% usage)

·  Zack Greinke has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 3.51 ERA is 0.93 points below his 4.44 FIP

·  THE BAT X projects the Royals (No. 7 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.299 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  Kansas City boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Sprint Speed this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB (Nicky Lopez, Hunter Dozier, Michael A. Taylor, Whit Merrifield)

·  The Astros (20.3 K%, via THE BAT X) have the least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  THE BAT X views the Astros as the No. 6 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has the most line movement on the slate, as it opened at UNDER 10.0 Runs (-110), but has been bet down to UNDER 9.5 (-110)

·  The opening Run Line for the Houston Astros was -1.5 (-110), but is now -1.5 (-120) after it steamed 10 cents

·  This game has the most lopsided Run Line today as 84% of the bet tickets and 98% of the cash is on the Astros

·  The Moneyline has the most lopsided action today with 74% of the bet tickets and 97% of the cash on the Astros

·  This season the Royals Team Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 64-50 resulting in + 10.36 Units (8% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Houston Astros has been their Game Total Over which is 65-52 generating + 8.20 Units (6% ROI)

·  Yordan Alvarez's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 385/-795)

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PRO TIPS

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