MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Wednesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Corbin Burnes (No. 2 out of 334)

2. CWS - Lance Lynn (No. 23)

3. SF - Kevin Gausman (No. 31)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. NYY - Deivi Garcia (No. 311 out of 334)

2. BAL - Matt Harvey (No. 304)

3. PIT - Wil Crowe (No. 284)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. NYY at KC - Doug Eddings (No. 7 out of 111)

2. TB at BOS - Tripp Gibson (No. 9)

3. LAD at PHI - Jeremy Riggs (No. 12)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. STL at PIT - Edwin Moscoso (No. 2 out of 111)

2. COL at HOU - John Libka (No. 7)

3. CIN at ATL - Greg Gibson (No. 24)

Today's Hottest Games

1. NYY at KC (93 degrees)

2. DET at BAL (90 degrees)

3. LAD at PHI (90 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. ARI at SF (63 degrees)

2. COL at HOU (72 degrees)

3. TOR at LAA (78 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Milwaukee Brewers

Projected: 7.00 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O + 115

·  Oakland Athletics

Projected: 5.43 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -130

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 5.35 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -135

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Washington Nationals

Projected: 2.46 runs

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 3.37 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 3.48 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -115

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Brewers at Cubs

Projected: 11.23 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -105

·  Rays at Red Sox

Projected: 10.61 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -120

·  Athletics at Indians

Projected: 10.30 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -125

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Nationals at Mets

Projected: 6.00 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O + 100

·  Marlins at Padres

Projected: 7.23 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O + 100

·  Rangers at Mariners

Projected: 7.92 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -115

GAMES OF THE DAY

San Diego Padres (66-49) vs. Miami Marlins (47-67)

O/U: 8.5 | SD -160 | MIA + 140

Ryan Weathers (THE BAT's No. 226 SP) vs. Sandy Alcantara (THE BAT's No. 45 SP)

Ben May (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 15 in MLB)

Petco Park (No. 23 Runs | No. 20 HR | No. 10 K)

79 degrees (No. 4 coldest today)

9 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Ryan Weathers has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against eight opposite-handed hitters today

·  Ryan Weathers's 4.26 ERA is 0.79 points better than his 5.05 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  Sandy Alcantara is throwing a changeup 16% more often this season (26% usage) than he did last season (10% usage)

·  Given that Ground ball pitchers are most effective against Ground ball hitters, Sandy Alcantara (49% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with four Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  The Padres have five players (Eric Hosmer, Manny Machado, Victor Caratini, Ha-seong Kim, Tommy Pham) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Marlins (28.5 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 2 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  Strikeouts against Miami may be easy to come by today, as four players (Jorge Alfaro, Alex Jackson, Sandy Alcantara, Isan Diaz) project for a 30%+ underlying K%, via THE BAT X

·  According to THE BAT X, the Marlins and their 0.295 wOBA have been the No. 2 luckiest offense in 2021

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The opening Moneyline for the Marlins was + 165, but is now + 140 after it steamed 25 cents

·  There is two-way action on the Game Total as 54% of the bet tickets are on the UNDER, but 37% of the cash is on the OVER

·  Sandy Alcantara's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+ 100) is the most popular prop for the game

Philadelphia Phillies (59-54) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (68-45)

O/U: 10.0 | PHI + 120 | LAD -140

Kyle Gibson (THE BAT's No. 108 SP) vs. David Price (THE BAT's No. 111 SP)

Jeremy Riggs (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 12 in MLB)

Citizens Bank Park (No. 19 Runs | No. 4 HR | No. 12 K)

90 degrees (No. 3 hottest today)

8 mph out to CF (No. 7 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Kyle Gibson's cutter usage (12% in 2021, 0% in 2020) has increased 12% this season

·  Citizens Bank Park is baseball's No. 8 best park for home runs, but Kyle Gibson's ground ball-heavy skillset (52% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Kyle Gibson (52% GB% since 2019) projects to face two Fly ball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Ground ball pitchers perform worst against Fly ball hitters

·  So far in 2021, David Price has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitchers, boasting a 3.53 ERA despite a 4.24 FIP

·  Philadelphia boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Max Exit Velocity% this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB (Jean Segura, Odubel Herrera, Bryce Harper, Brad Miller)

·  The Dodgers have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 2 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.328 wOBA going forward

·  The Dodgers offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 1 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Justin Turner, Will Smith, Albert Pujols, Chris Taylor)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has the most line movement on the slate, as it opened at OVER 9.5 Runs (-110), but has been bet up to OVER 10.0 (-110)

·  The Phillies Run Line has 71% of the cash and 63% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 71% of the cash and 63% of the bet tickets is on the Phillies

·  The most popular prop for the game is Bryce Harper's Total Bases Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+ 105/-140)

Seattle Mariners (59-55) vs. Texas Rangers (40-73)

O/U: 8.0 | SEA -210 | TEX + 175

Tyler Anderson (THE BAT's No. 175 SP) vs. Spencer Howard (THE BAT's No. 159 SP)

Mark Ripperger (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 36 in MLB)

T-Mobile Park (No. 26 Runs | No. 6 HR | No. 1 K)

81 degrees (No. 6 coldest today)

7 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Tyler Anderson is throwing a cutter 11% more often this season (28% usage) than he did last season (17% usage)

·  Spencer Howard may be limited today, with THE BAT projecting a maximum pitch count of roughly 60 pitches

·  Spencer Howard's fastball (2161 rpm) has lost 184 rpm of spin this season relative to 2020

·  Spencer Howard is projected to face seven opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his advantage given his reverse platoon split

·  The Seattle Mariners' 22.1 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 3 least on today's slate of games

·  The Mariners' 0.295 team wOBA makes them the No. 5 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Mariners have four players (Luis Torrens, Tom Murphy, Mitch Haniger, Kyle Seager) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The OVER has 87% of the bet tickets and 51% of the cash making it the most lopsided Game Total on the slate

·  The Mariners Run Line has 71% of the bet tickets and 51% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The Mariners Moneyline has 66% of the cash and 55% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  Tyler Anderson's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 5.0 Strikeouts (-115/-110) is the most popular prop for the game

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