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MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Tuesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. WSH - Max Scherzer (No. 9 out of 300)

2. CWS - Lucas Giolito (No. 22)

3. LAD - Walker Buehler (No. 27)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. BAL - Bruce Zimmermann (No. 281 out of 300)

2. TB - Michael Wacha (No. 268)

3. CIN - Jeff Hoffman (No. 265)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. LAA at TEX - Ron Kulpa (No. 2 out of 117)

2. MIN at CLE - Phil Cuzzi (No. 4)

3. CHC at ATL - Vic Carapazza (No. 28)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. NYY at BAL - Greg Gibson (No. 17 out of 117)

2. PHI at STL - Jordan Baker (No. 18)

3. MIA at MIL - Shane Livensparger (No. 20)

Today's Hottest Games

1. WSH at TOR (81 degrees)

2. CHC at ATL (79 degrees)

3. PHI at STL (79 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. COL at SF (58 degrees)

2. BOS at NYM (60 degrees)

3. CIN at LAD (66 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

  • New York Yankees

    Projected: 7.39 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -170

  • Houston Astros

    Projected: 5.99 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -195

  • Los Angeles Dodgers

    Projected: 5.81 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -185

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

  • Detroit Tigers

    Projected: 3.86 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O + 110

  • Miami Marlins

    Projected: 4.08 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O 100

  • Colorado Rockies

    Projected: 4.12 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -105

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

  • Yankees at Orioles

    Projected: 12.32 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -115

  • Nationals at Blue Jays

    Projected: 11.38 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -115

  • Twins at Indians

    Projected: 10.77 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

  • Marlins at Brewers

    Projected: 8.87 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -110

  • Rockies at Giants

    Projected: 8.91 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -110

  • Red Sox at Mets

    Projected: 9.10 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -110

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

Cleveland Indians (10-11) vs. Minnesota Twins (7-14)

8.5 O/U | CLE -105 | MIN -115

Aaron Civale (THE BAT's No. 145 SP) vs. Kenta Maeda (THE BAT's No. 77 SP)

Phil Cuzzi (Extreme Pitchers Umpire - No. 4 in MLB)

Progressive Field (No. 3 Runs | No. 13 HR | No. 17 K)

75 degrees (No. 8 coldest today)

11 mph out to RF (No. 3 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

•  Civale is throwing a fastball 20% more often this season (29% usage) than he did last season (9% usage)

•  Civale is throwing a sinker 16% less often this season (6% usage) than he did last season (22% usage)

•  Civale has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 2.42 ERA is 1.74 points below his 4.16 FIP

•  The Indians have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 3 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.285 wOBA going forward

•  The Twins have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 6 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.300 wOBA going forward

•  The Indians have three players (Cesar Hernandez, Jordan Luplow, Eddie Rosario) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 most in MLB

•  The Twins have four players (Luis Arraez, Nelson Cruz, Andrelton Simmons, Byron Buxton) with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 most in MLB

•  The Indians (21.6 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 4 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

•  The Twins (22.1 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 5 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

BETTING INSIGHTS

•  There is two-way action on the Game Total as 86% of the bet tickets are on the OVER, but 90% of the cash is on the UNDER

•  On the year, Cleveland Indians’s Team Total Under has been their most profitable market and have covered 14-7 to generate 6.18 Units (25% ROI)

•  On the year, Minnesota Twins’s Team Total Under has been their most profitable market and have covered 11-6 to generate 5.28 Units (29% ROI)

•  The most popular prop for the game is Kenta Maeda's Strikeouts Prop which is currently at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+ 115/-145)

•  Heavy sharp action on the OVER, has moved the Game Total a full run as it opened at 7.5 Runs and is now 8.5 Runs

Toronto Blue Jays (10-11) vs. Washington Nationals (8-11)

8.5 O/U | TOR + 105 | WSH -125

Trent Thornton (THE BAT's No. 221 SP) vs. Max Scherzer (THE BAT's No. 9 SP)

TD Ballpark (No. 7 Runs | No. 5 HR | No. 7 K)

81 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

7 mph out to RF (No. 7 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

•  Max Scherzer (92.8 mph) has lost 1.3 mph off his fastball so far in 2021

•  Scherzer is a flyball pitcher (34% FB% since 2019) and TD Ballpark is the No. 5 most extreme park in baseball for boosting home runs

•  Scherzer has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 1.80 ERA is 1.44 points below his 3.24 FIP

•  The Blue Jays have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 2 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.290 wOBA going forward

•  The Nationals have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 4 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.290 wOBA going forward

•  The Blue Jays have 4 players (Rowdy Tellez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Randal Grichuk) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 most in MLB

•  The Blue Jays (20.8 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 2 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

BETTING INSIGHTS

•  There is lopsided action on the Game Total with 68% of the bet tickets and 68% of the cash is on the UNDER

•  On the year, Toronto Blue Jays’s Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and have covered 15-6 to generate 8.35 Units (36% ROI)

•  The most popular prop for the game is George Springer's Home Runs Prop which is currently at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs ( 410/-885)

Tampa Bay Rays (11-12) vs. Oakland Athletics (15-8)

8.5 O/U | TB -105 | OAK -115

Michael Wacha (THE BAT's No. 268 SP) vs. Frankie Montas (THE BAT's No. 88 SP)

Chad Fairchild (Extreme Hitters Umpire - No. 39 in MLB)

Tropicana Field (No. 27 Runs | No. 19 HR | No. 3 K)

72 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

•  Frankie Montas is throwing a sinker 11% more often this season (49% usage) than he did last season (38% usage)

•  Wacha is throwing a cutter 11% more often this season (39% usage) than he did last season (28% usage)

•  Wacha and his 3.78 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 4.92 thus far in 2021

•  The Rays have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 10 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.299 wOBA going forward

•  The Rays have five players (Willy Adames, Mike Zunino, Brandon Lowe, Austin Meadows, Mike Brosseau) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 most in MLB

•  The Athletics have four players (Ramon Laureano, Mark Canha, Matt Chapman, Matt Olson) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

•  There is two-way action on the Game Total as 54% of the bet tickets are on the OVER, but 79% of the cash is on the UNDER

•  The Oakland Athletics Run Line is getting lopsided action as it has 98% of the cash and 53% of the bet tickets thus far

•  On the year, Oakland Athletics’ ML has been their most profitable market and have covered 15-8 to generate 7.50 Units (27% ROI)

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