MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Tuesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Corbin Burnes (No. 5 out of 300)

2. MIN - Jose Berrios (No. 13)

3. LAA - Shohei Ohtani (No. 15)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. BAL - Matt Harvey (No. 283 out of 300)

2. TEX - Jordan Lyles (No. 260)

3. MIA - Nick Neidert (No. 252)

Today's Hottest Games

1. BAL at MIA (72 degrees)

2. STL at WSH (68 degrees)

3. SF at PHI (68 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. PIT at DET (37 degrees)

2. NYM at CHC (39 degrees)

3. CWS at CLE (41 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

1. New York Yankees (5.29 runs)

2. Atlanta Braves (5.24)

3. Los Angeles Dodgers (5.22)

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

1. Oakland Athletics (2.68 runs)

2. Minnesota Twins (3.02)

3. Milwaukee Brewers (3.51)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

1. Braves at Yankees (10.53 runs)

2. Astros at Rockies (9.84)

3. Cardinals at Nationals (9.82)

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

1. Twins at Athletics (5.70 runs)

2. Brewers at Padres (7.19)

3. White Sox at Indians (7.52)

Today's Biggest Line Movements

1. Los Angeles Dodgers -180 at Seattle Mariners (opened -210)

2. Washington Nationals -130 vs. St. Louis Cardinals (opened -115)

3. Miami Marlins -125 vs. Baltimore Orioles (opened -140)

Games With The Most Lopsided Action

1. Yankees (78% Handle) vs. Braves (22% Handle)

2. Phillies (73%) vs. Giants (27%)

3. Reds (71%) vs. D-Backs (29%)

Most Profitable Markets ATS

1. Red Sox Run Line (14-3, 12.45 Units, 55% ROI)

2. Cubs Team Total Under (13-2, 11.00 Units, 64% ROI)

3. Mariners Run Line (13-4, 8.25 Units, 34% ROI)

Least Profitable Markets ATS

1. Cubs Team Total Over (2-13, -13.64 Units, -76% ROI)

2. Yankees MoneyLine (5-10, -11.50 Units, -43% ROI)

3. Giants Game Total Over (4-12, -8.60 Units, -51% ROI)

 

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

Boston Red Sox (11-6) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (7-9)

O/U: 8 | BOS -112 | TOR 102

Eduardo Rodriguez (THE BAT’s No. 91 SP) vs. Hyun-Jin Ryu (THE BAT’s No. 21 SP)

Fenway Park (No. 2 Runs | No. 14 HR | No. 17 K)

62 degrees (No. 7 hottest today)

10 mph wind across the field

 

QUICK-HITTING INSIGHTS

  • The Blue Jays (19.6 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 1 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today
  • According to THE BAT X, the Red Sox and their 0.350 wOBA have been the league’s luckiest offense in 2021
  • The Blue Jays have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 2 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.294 wOBA going forward
  • Hyun Jin Ryu is throwing a sinker 11% less often this season (0% usage) than he did last season (12% usage)
  • Hyun Jin Ryu is throwing a cutter 11% more often this season (31% usage) than he did last season (20% usage)
  • Flyball pitchers tend to perform worse against groundball hitters, and Hyun Jin Ryu (53% GB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today
  • Hyun Jin Ryu and his 1.89 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 3.46 thus far in 2021
  • The Blue Jays have four players (Rowdy Tellez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Randal Grichuk) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, fourth-best in MLB
  • The Red Sox have five players (Christian Arroyo, Bobby Dalbec, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, second-most in MLB

 

Cincinnati Reds (9-6) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (6-10)

O/U: 7.5 | CIN -139 | ARI 129

Luis Castillo (THE BAT’s No. 33 SP) vs. Zac Gallen (THE BAT’s No. 22 SP)

Great American Ball Park (No. 3 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)

61 degrees (No. 8 hottest today)

9 mph wind across the field

 

QUICK-HITTING INSIGHTS

  • According to THE BAT X, the Reds and their 0.343 wOBA have been the No. 2 luckiest offense in 2021
  • Great American Ball Park is baseball's No. 1 best park for home runs, but Luis Castillo's groundball-heavy skillset (57% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball
  • The D-Backs have five players (Josh Rojas, Carson Kelly, Josh VanMeter, Kole Calhoun, Eduardo Escobar) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, tops in MLB
  • Luis Castillo (95.1 mph) has lost 1.7 mph off his fastball so far in 2021
  • Flyball pitchers tend to perform better against flyball hitters, and Luis Castillo (57% FB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today
  • Zac Gallen and his 2.25 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 3.52 thus far in 2021
  • The Reds have three players (Joey Votto, Tyler Naquin, Jesse Winker) with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 most in MLB

BONUS INSIGHTS ACROSS MLB TODAY

  • Shohei Ohtani may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 75 pitches
  • The Giants have six players (Alex Dickerson, Tommy La Stella, Brandon Belt, Evan Longoria, Austin Slater, Brandon Crawford) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, tops in MLB
  • The Yankees have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 1 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.285 wOBA going forward
  • The Rockies (28.6 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 1 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today
  • The Rockies have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30% , according to THE BAT X (Jon Gray, Dom Nunez, Sam Hilliard)
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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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Follow The Money: Consider schedules before betting on a team. What happened before and what is coming up can impact if a team is worth backing. Like SEA hosting CAR (off their bye) with SF in Week 15.  View more tips.

The Greg Peterson Experience: Have a value in mind for a dropoff to a backup quarterback from the starter, as many QBs are injured at this time of the season. View more tips.

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Dave Tuley: Saints +3.5. ​​​View more picks.

Greg Peterson: Troy +16 vs San Diego St. ​​​View more picks

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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VSiN PrimeTime: Be aware of injuries on the offensive line, skill positions get the most publicity, but if an elite tackle is out it could have a huge impact on the game. View more tips.

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Chuck Edel: Kansas State +2.5 vs TCU. View more picks.

Kenny White: Fresno State +3 vs Boise St. View more picks.
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