MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Tuesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYY - Gerrit Cole (No. 3 out of 344)

2. PHI - Aaron Nola (No. 11)

3. SF - Logan Webb (No. 16)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. CHC - Adrian Sampson (No. 334 out of 344)

2. DET - Wily Peralta (No. 306)

3. WSH - Paolo Espino (No. 301)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. SEA at HOU - Bill Miller (No. 4 out of 111)

2. CIN at CHC - Roberto Ortiz (No. 5)

3. TOR at NYY - Ryan Blakney (No. 10)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. SF at COL - Nic Lentz (No. 11 out of 111)

2. KC at BAL - James Hoye (No. 17)

3. PHI at MIL - Jerry Meals (No. 18)

Today's Hottest Games

1. MIN at CLE (86 degrees)

2. SF at COL (85 degrees)

3. LAD at STL (83 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. CWS at OAK (68 degrees)

2. SEA at HOU (72 degrees)

3. LAA at SD (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  San Francisco Giants

Projected: 6.97 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O -125

·  Minnesota Twins

Projected: 6.06 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -110

·  Atlanta Braves

Projected: 5.97 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Los Angeles Angels

Projected: 3.07 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O + 115

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.51 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 125

·  Washington Nationals

Projected: 3.65 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -105

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Giants at Rockies

Projected: 12.12 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.5 O -110

·  Twins at Indians

Projected: 11.74 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O + 100

·  Royals at Orioles

Projected: 11.00 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Mets at Marlins

Projected: 7.81 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -105

·  Angels at Padres

Projected: 7.97 runs

·  Rangers at D-Backs

Projected: 8.18 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -115

GAMES OF THE DAY

Atlanta Braves (72-64) vs. Washington Nationals (57-80)

O/U: 9.0 | ATL -240 | WSH + 200

Max Fried (THE BAT's No. 36 SP) vs. Paolo Espino (THE BAT's No. 301 SP)

Truist Park (No. 13 Runs | No. 21 HR | No. 23 K)

80 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

4 mph in from CF (No. 6 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Thus far in 2021, Max Fried's fastball (93.4 mph) has been nearly a full mph faster than it was last season

·  Given that Ground ball pitchers are most effective against Ground ball hitters, Max Fried (53% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with five Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Paolo Espino and his 4.08 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 5.27 thus far in 2021

·  The Braves have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 7 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.322 wOBA going forward

·  Atlanta boasts five active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB (Adam Duvall, Freddie Freeman, Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley, Jorge Soler)

·  According to THE BAT X, the Nationals and their 0.324 wOBA have been the No. 5 luckiest offense in 2021

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Braves Moneyline has 84% of the bet tickets and 75% of the cash making it the most lopsided action on the slate

·  The Run Line has lopsided action today with 68% of the bet tickets and 96% of the cash on the Braves

Houston Astros (80-57) vs. Seattle Mariners (75-63)

O/U: 8.5 | HOU -165 | SEA + 150

Jake Odorizzi (THE BAT's No. 124 SP) vs. Logan Gilbert (THE BAT's No. 66 SP)

Bill Miller (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 4 in MLB)

Minute Maid Park (No. 23 Runs | No. 14 HR | No. 2 K)

72 degrees (No. 2 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Jake Odorizzi has a large reverse platoon split, making him more effective against opposite-handed hitters, which he's projected to face seven of today

·  Jake Odorizzi has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 4.32 ERA is 0.51 points below his 4.83 FIP

·  The Houston Astros' 19.0 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the least on today's slate of games

·  THE BAT X projects the Mariners (No. 5 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.297 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  The Mariners have three players (Abraham Toro, Kyle Seager, Dylan Moore) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total opened at 9.0 Runs, but is now 8.5 Runs as there is line movement toward the UNDER

·  There is lopsided action on the Game Total as 68% of the bet tickets and 70% of the cash is on the OVER

Colorado Rockies (63-75) vs. San Francisco Giants (88-50)

O/U: 11.5 | COL + 185 | SF -225

Chi Chi Gonzalez (THE BAT's No. 291 SP) vs. Logan Webb (THE BAT's No. 16 SP)

Nic Lentz (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 11 in MLB)

Coors Field (No. 1 Runs | No. 11 HR | No. 30 K)

85 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

6 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Logan Webb is throwing a fastball 22% less often this season (11% usage) than he did last season (33% usage)

·  Logan Webb is throwing a sinker 23% more often this season (36% usage) than he did last season (13% usage)

·  Logan Webb is throwing a slider 11% more often this season (27% usage) than he did last season (16% usage)

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform better against Ground ball hitters, and Logan Webb (56% GB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today

·  While THE BAT projects Logan Webb's ERA going forward to be 3.58, his actual has been 2.56 ERA, indicating some regression may be in order

·  The Rockies have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 6 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.314 wOBA going forward

·  Colorado boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Sprint Speed this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB (Trevor Story, Raimel Tapia, Garrett Hampson)

·  The Giants offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 1 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Brandon Crawford, LaMonte Wade Jr., Kris Bryant, Brandon Belt, Darin Ruf)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The opening Moneyline for the Giants was -200, but is now -225 after it steamed 25 cents

·  There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 69% of the bet tickets and 98% of the cash is on the Giants

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 97% of the cash and 63% of the bet tickets on the Giants

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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