MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Tuesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Brandon Woodruff (No. 7 out of 348)

2. LAD - Julio Urias (No. 18)

3. SD - Joe Musgrove (No. 26)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. WSH - Josh Rogers (No. 337 out of 348)

2. STL - Jake Woodford (No. 319)

3. DET - Tyler Alexander (No. 308)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. TEX at NYY - Roberto Ortiz (No. 6 out of 111)

2. BAL at PHI - Dan Bellino (No. 9)

3. PIT at CIN - Ben May (No. 11)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. STL at MIL - Jeff Nelson (No. 26 out of 111)

2. KC at CLE - John Bacon (No. 39)

3. HOU at LAA - Todd Tichenor (No. 44)

Today's Hottest Games

1. ATL at ARI (84 degrees)

2. HOU at LAA (77 degrees)

3. CWS at DET (77 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. STL at MIL (64 degrees)

2. MIN at CHC (65 degrees)

3. LAD at COL (67 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 6.28 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O + 105

·  Chicago White Sox

Projected: 5.44 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -135

·  Houston Astros

Projected: 5.33 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -100

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  St. Louis Cardinals

Projected: 3.17 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -135

·  Texas Rangers

Projected: 3.42 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -140

·  Chicago Cubs

Projected: 3.52 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -140

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Dodgers at Rockies

Projected: 10.60 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.0 O -115

·  Royals at Indians

Projected: 9.81 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -125

·  Braves at D-Backs

Projected: 9.66 runs

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Twins at Cubs

Projected: 7.28 runs

·  Nationals at Marlins

Projected: 7.55 runs

·  Giants at Padres

Projected: 7.89 runs

GAMES OF THE DAY

New York Yankees (84-67) vs. Texas Rangers (55-95)

O/U: 8.5 | NYY -260 | TEX + 220

Jordan Montgomery (THE BAT's No. 37 SP) vs. Dane Dunning (THE BAT's No. 77 SP)

Roberto Ortiz (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 6 in MLB)

Yankee Stadium (No. 11 Runs | No. 2 HR | No. 15 K)

73 degrees (No. 7 coldest today)

8 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Dane Dunning may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 58 pitches

·  Dane Dunning's fastball usage (0% in 2021, 22% in 2020) has decreased 22% this season

·  Dane Dunning is throwing a sinker 14% more often this season (53% usage) than he did last season (39% usage)

·  Dane Dunning's ability to keep the ball on the ground (51% GB% since 2019) should help him in Yankee Stadium (No. 4 best HR park in MLB) today

·  Despite a 3.73 FIP, Dane Dunning's unlucky ERA has been 0.55 points worse at 4.28

·  The Yankees' 0.317 team wOBA makes them the No. 3 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Yankees have four players (Joey Gallo, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

·  Strikeouts against Texas may be easy to come by today, as three players (Leody Taveras, DJ Peters, Adolis Garcia) project for a 30%+ underlying K%, via THE BAT X

·  THE BAT X projects the Rangers (No. 5 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.291 wOBA) thus far in 2021

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Yankees Moneyline has 89% of the cash and 63% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The New York Yankees Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 85-61 resulting in + 18.68 Units (11% ROI)

·  Aaron Judge's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 340/-640)

Tampa Bay Rays (93-58) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (84-66)

O/U: 8.0 | TB -120 | TOR + 100

Drew Rasmussen (THE BAT's No. 87 SP) vs. Alek Manoah (THE BAT's No. 43 SP)

Tropicana Field (No. 29 Runs | No. 19 HR | No. 3 K)

72 degrees (No. 6 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Drew Rasmussen may be limited today, with THE BAT projecting a maximum pitch count of roughly 79 pitches

·  So far in 2021, Alek Manoah has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitchers, boasting a 3.39 ERA despite a 3.93 FIP

·  The Rays (25.9 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 4 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  THE BAT X views the Rays as the No. 3 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Rays offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 4 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Austin Meadows, Mike Zunino, Brandon Lowe)

·  The Blue Jays are the No. 2 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 20.7% according to THE BAT X

·  Toronto boasts five active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Max Exit Velocity% this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB (Randal Grichuk, George Springer, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Teoscar Hernandez)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 98% of the bet tickets and 77% of the cash on the Blue Jays

·  The Tampa Bay Rays Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 85-61 resulting in + 20.70 Units (11% ROI)

·  The Toronto Blue Jays Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 76-65 resulting in + 5.40 Units (3% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Nelson Cruz's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 340/-645)

Colorado Rockies (70-79) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (96-54)

O/U: 11.0 | COL + 175 | LAD -210

Antonio Senzatela (THE BAT's No. 74 SP) vs. Julio Urias (THE BAT's No. 18 SP)

Coors Field (No. 1 Runs | No. 11 HR | No. 30 K)

67 degrees (No. 3 coldest today)

5 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Antonio Senzatela (53% GB% since 2019) projects to face three Fly ball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Ground ball pitchers perform worst against Fly ball hitters

·  Julio Urias has been throwing a curveball (12% increase) far more often in 2021 (34% usage) than he did in 2020 (22% usage)

·  Julio Urias is projected to face eight opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his advantage given his reverse platoon split

·  The Rockies' 0.315 team wOBA makes them the No. 2 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Rockies have four players (Yonathan Daza, Garrett Hampson, Raimel Tapia, Trevor Story) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

·  THE BAT X projects the Dodgers (No. 1 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.324 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  The Dodgers offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 4 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, Will Smith, Corey Seager)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Moneyline has the most lopsided action today with 98% of the bet tickets and 63% of the cash on the Dodgers

·  The UNDER has 88% of the bet tickets and 98% of the cash resulting in a lopsided handle for the Game Total

·  This season the Rockies Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 80-61 resulting in + 11.95 Units (7% ROI)

·  The Los Angeles Dodgers Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 74-63 resulting in + 5.10 Units (3% ROI)

·  Max Muncy's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 330/-615) is the most popular prop for the game

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