MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Tuesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYY - Gerrit Cole (No. 5 out of 346)

2. MIL - Freddy Peralta (No. 15)

3. BOS - Nathan Eovaldi (No. 30)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. CHC - Adrian Sampson (No. 337 out of 346)

2. CLE - Logan Allen (No. 328)

3. TEX - Jordan Lyles (No. 321)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. MIA at WSH - Ryan Blakney (No. 11 out of 111)

2. BOS at SEA - Brennan Miller (No. 18)

3. TB at TOR - Cory Blaser (No. 32)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. ARI at LAD - Mark Wegner (No. 5 out of 111)

2. STL at NYM - Junior Valentine (No. 19)

3. SD at SF - Jordan Baker (No. 38)

Today's Hottest Games

1. MIL at DET (84 degrees)

2. MIA at WSH (83 degrees)

3. COL at ATL (82 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. SD at SF (59 degrees)

2. BOS at SEA (65 degrees)

3. CLE at MIN (68 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 7.55 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O + 110

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 6.33 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 115

·  Milwaukee Brewers

Projected: 6.10 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Cleveland Indians

Projected: 3.65 runs

·  Minnesota Twins

Projected: 3.87 runs

·  Detroit Tigers

Projected: 3.96 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Yankees at Orioles

Projected: 11.81 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -110

·  Rays at Blue Jays

Projected: 10.96 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -105

·  D-Backs at Dodgers

Projected: 10.39 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O + 100

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Indians at Twins

Projected: 7.52 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O + 100

·  Cardinals at Mets

Projected: 8.89 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -115

·  Marlins at Nationals

Projected: 8.97 runs

GAMES OF THE DAY

Minnesota Twins (63-81) vs. Cleveland Indians (69-72)

O/U: 6.5 | MIN -125 | CLE + 105

Joe Ryan (THE BAT's No. 85 SP) vs. Triston McKenzie (THE BAT's No. 78 SP)

Target Field (No. 16 Runs | No. 22 HR | No. 19 K)

68 degrees (No. 3 coldest today)

11 mph out to RF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  While THE BAT projects Joe Ryan's ERA going forward to be 4.35, his actual has been 2.25 ERA, indicating some regression may be in order

·  Triston McKenzie's spin rate (2246 rpm) has decreased by nearly 100 rpm in 2021

·  Triston McKenzie's fly ball nature (41% FB% since 2019) should play well in Target Field (No. 10 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Given that Fly ball pitchers are most effective against Fly ball hitters, Triston McKenzie (41% FB% since 2019) is well-situated today with two Fly ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  The Twins offense has the No. 5 (tie) most hitters in baseball with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or better this year (Josh Donaldson, Luis Arraez, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler)

·  The Indians (26.5 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 4 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  Strikeouts against Cleveland may be easy to come by today, as four players (Bradley Zimmer, Bobby Bradley, Austin Hedges, Franmil Reyes) project for a 30%+ underlying K%, via THE BAT X

·  The Indians offense is quite fast; they have the No. 2 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Myles Straw, Harold Ramirez, Amed Rosario, Bradley Zimmer)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is reverse line movement on the Indians Moneyline as it's dropped from + 110 to + 105 despite only getting 27% of the cash

·  The Moneyline has 65% of the bet tickets on the Indians, but 73% of the cash is on the Twins resulting in two-way action

·  The most profitable market for the Minnesota Twins has been their Game Total Over which is 78-56 generating + 16.85 Units (11% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Cleveland Indians has been their Run Line which is 75-65 generating + 7.10 Units (4% ROI)

Detroit Tigers (68-76) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (89-55)

O/U: 9.0 | DET + 180 | MIL -220

Wily Peralta (THE BAT's No. 311 SP) vs. Freddy Peralta (THE BAT's No. 15 SP)

Comerica Park (No. 22 Runs | No. 23 HR | No. 28 K)

84 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

15 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Wily Peralta is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his advantage given his reverse platoon split

·  As an extreme fly ball pitcher (41% FB% since 2019), Freddy Peralta matches up well with Comerica Park (No. 5 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Freddy Peralta and his 2.69 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 3.63 thus far in 2021

·  According to THE BAT X, the Tigers and their 0.307 wOBA have been the No. 1 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Tigers offense is quite fast; they have the No. 5 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Akil Baddoo, Niko Goodrum, Willi Castro)

·  The Milwaukee Brewers' 21.7 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 4 least on today's slate of games

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Brewers Moneyline has 67% of the bet tickets and 85% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The most profitable market for the Milwaukee Brewers has been their Run Line which is 79-63 generating + 19.65 Units (11% ROI)

·  This season the Tigers Moneyline has been their most profitable market and is 68-73 resulting in + 18.90 Units (13% ROI)

·  Freddy Peralta's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+ 110/-145)

Philadelphia Phillies (72-71) vs. Chicago Cubs (65-79)

O/U: 9.5 | PHI -210 | CHC + 175

Kyle Gibson (THE BAT's No. 109 SP) vs. Adrian Sampson (THE BAT's No. 337 SP)

Citizens Bank Park (No. 19 Runs | No. 4 HR | No. 12 K)

82 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)

8 mph out to CF (No. 6 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Kyle Gibson's cutter usage (14% in 2021, 0% in 2020) has increased 14% this season

·  Kyle Gibson's ground ball tendencies (52% GB% since 2019) ought to play well in homer-friendly Citizens Bank Park (No. 9 best HR park in baseball) today

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform better against Ground ball hitters, and Kyle Gibson (52% GB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today

·  So far in 2021, Adrian Sampson has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitchers, boasting a 2.20 ERA despite a 5.89 FIP

·  The Phillies offense has the No. 3 (tie) most hitters in baseball with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or better this year (Odubel Herrera, J.T. Realmuto, Brad Miller, Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen)

·  The Cubs are the most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 28.3% according to THE BAT X

·  THE BAT X views the Cubs as the No. 3 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total opened at 9.0 Runs, but is now 9.5 Runs as there is line movement toward the OVER

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 78% of the bet tickets and 88% of the cash is on the Phillies

·  The Chicago Cubs Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 79-58 resulting in + 12.28 Units (8% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Bryce Harper's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 200/-300)

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

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