MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Tuesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

USATSI_15980084

This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

TODAY'S RANKINGS ROUND-UP

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYM - Jacob deGrom (No. 1 out of 300)

2. LAD - Clayton Kershaw (No. 9)

3. PHI - Aaron Nola (No. 11)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. COL - Ryan Castellani (No. 291 out of 300)

2. CLE - Sam Hentges (No. 290)

3. SEA - Justin Dunn (No. 287)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. TOR at OAK - Doug Eddings (No. 8 out of 117)

2. NYM at STL - Brennan Miller (No. 29)

3. MIL at PHI - Dan Merzel (No. 35)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. CLE at KC - Edwin Moscoso (No. 3 out of 117)

Today's Hottest Games

1. MIL at PHI (77 degrees)

2. ATL at WSH (75 degrees)

3. ARI at MIA (72 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. DET at BOS (50 degrees)

2. LAD at CHC (51 degrees)

3. SF at COL (55 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Atlanta Braves

Projected: 5.52 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -180

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 5.33 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -175

·  Houston Astros

Projected: 5.20 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -175

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Chicago Cubs

Projected: 2.30 runs

·  St. Louis Cardinals

Projected: 2.70 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -105

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.09 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -155

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Astros at Yankees

Projected: 10.53 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -115

·  Braves at Nationals

Projected: 10.46 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -105

·  White Sox at Reds

Projected: 10.27 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -125

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Dodgers at Cubs

Projected: 5.46 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O 105

·  Mets at Cardinals

Projected: 7.13 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O -110

·  Pirates at Padres

Projected: 7.47 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -120

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

Boston Red Sox (17-12) vs. Detroit Tigers (8-21)

8.5 O/U | BOS -180 | DET 160

Nick Pivetta (THE BAT's No. 168 SP) vs. Michael Fulmer (THE BAT's No. 78 SP)

Fenway Park (No. 3 Runs | No. 16 HR | No. 18 K)

50 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

5 mph in from LF (No. 8 strongest winds today)

 

DATA NUGGETS

·  Michael Fulmer may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 85 pitches

·  Michael Fulmer is throwing a slider 11% more often this season (34% usage) than he did last season (23% usage)

·  Nick Pivetta has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 2.81 ERA is 1.06 points below his 3.86 FIP

·  The Tigers (26.4 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 2 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Tigers have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30% , according to THE BAT X (Akil Baddoo, Niko Goodrum, JaCoby Jones)

·  The Tigers have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the league's unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.257 wOBA going forward

·  The Tigers have four players (Niko Goodrum, Akil Baddoo, Wilson Ramos, JaCoby Jones) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, most in MLB

·  According to THE BAT X, the Red Sox and their 0.327 wOBA have been the No. 5 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Red Sox have 5 players (Bobby Dalbec, Xander Bogaerts, Christian Arroyo, Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, most in MLB

 

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Boston Red Sox Moneyline is getting lopsided action as it has 68% of the bet tickets and 77% of the cash thus far

·  The most profitable market for the Boston Red Sox has been their Run Line which is 19-10 generating 11.00 Units (31% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Detroit Tigers has been their Game Total Under which is 19-10 generating 8.05 Units (26% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is J.D. Martinez's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs ( 390/-820)

 

Kansas City Royals (16-11) vs. Cleveland Indians (14-13)

8.5 O/U | KC -140 | CLE 120

Mike Minor (THE BAT's No. 103 SP) vs. Sam Hentges (THE BAT's No. 290 SP)

Edwin Moscoso (Extreme Hitters Umpire - No. 3 in MLB)

Kauffman Stadium (No. 8 Runs | No. 30 HR | No. 29 K)

61 degrees (No. 8 hottest today)

11 mph in from LF (No. 3 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Mike Minor (90.8 mph) has added nearly a full mph to his fastball velocity this season

·  Mike Minor is throwing a fastball 18% less often this season (32% usage) than he did last season (50% usage)

·  Mike Minor is throwing a slider 10% more often this season (31% usage) than he did last season (21% usage)

·  Mike Minor is throwing a curveball 13% more often this season (20% usage) than he did last season (7% usage)

·  Sam Hentges may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 81 pitches

·  The Indians (20.7 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 4 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Royals (20.8 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 5 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Indians have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 4 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.293 wOBA going forward

·  The Indians have four players (Franmil Reyes, Jordan Luplow, Roberto Perez, Jose Ramirez) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, most in MLB

·  The Royals have four players (Hunter Dozier, Salvador Perez, Michael A. Taylor, Jorge Soler) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, #3 most in MLB

 

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is two-way action on the Game Total as 67% of the bet tickets are on the OVER, but 87% of the cash is on the UNDER

·  The most profitable market for the Kansas City Royals has been their Moneyline which is 16-11 generating 4.90 Units (16% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Jose Ramirez's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs ( 415/-910)

·  We're seeing line movement on the Game Total as it opened at 9.0 Runs, but sharp action has bet the UNDER moving it to 8.5 Runs

 

Los Angeles Angels (13-14) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (15-15)

8.5 O/U | LAA -125 | TB 105

Alex Cobb (THE BAT's No. 124 SP) vs. Shane McClanahan (THE BAT's No. 97 SP)

Sean Barber (Extreme Pitchers Umpire - No. 44 in MLB)

Angel Stadium (No. 20 Runs | No. 10 HR | No. 9 K)

71 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

7 mph out to CF (No. 7 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Shane McClanahan may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 79 pitches

·  Shane McClanahan has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against 7 opposite-handed hitters today

·  Shane McClanahan has been quite unlucky this season, posting a 4.50 ERA despite a 3.95 FIP

·  Angel Stadium is baseball's #6 best park for home runs, but Alex Cobb's groundball-heavy skillset (52% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Alex Cobb has a reverse platoon split, making him more effective against opposite-handed hitters, which he's projected to face 6 of today

·  Flyball pitchers tend to perform worse against Groundball hitters, and Alex Cobb (52% GB% since 2019) is projected to face 3 of them today

·  Alex Cobb is throwing a fastball 48% less often this season (0% usage) than he did last season (48% usage)

·  Alex Cobb is throwing a sinker 37% more often this season (37% usage) than he did last season (0% usage)

·  The Rays (27.5 K%, via THE BAT X) have the #1 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Angels (20.6 K%, via THE BAT X) have the #3 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  According to THE BAT X, the Angels and their 0.322 wOBA have been the #6 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Rays have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the #7 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.297 wOBA going forward

·  The Angels have 4 players (Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, #3 most in MLB

·  The Rays have 4 players (Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz, Yoshi Tsutsugo, Mike Zunino) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, #3 most in MLB

 

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is two-way action on the Game Total as 66% of the bet tickets are on the OVER, but 77% of the cash is on the UNDER

·  The Los Angeles Angels Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 16-11 resulting in 3.70 Units (12% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Anthony Rendon's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs ( 410/-895)

 

 

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