MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Tuesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

TODAY'S RANKINGS ROUND-UP

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYM - Jacob deGrom (No. 1 out of 298)

2. MIL - Corbin Burnes (No. 2)

3. WSH - Max Scherzer (No. 7)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. PIT - Cody Ponce (No. 278 out of 298)

2. CHC - Jake Arrieta (No. 253)

3. DET - Tarik Skubal (No. 218)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. SEA at OAK - Ryan Wills (No. 11 out of 110)

2. CLE at DET - Tim Timmons (No. 34)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. SD at MIL - Fieldin Culbreth (No. 16 out of 110)

2. COL at NYM - Chad Fairchild (No. 25)

3. BAL at MIN - David Rackley (No. 27)

Today's Hottest Games

1. CHC at PIT (85 degrees)

2. CLE at DET (85 degrees)

3. SF at ARI (84 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. SEA at OAK (56 degrees)

2. ATL at BOS (68 degrees)

3. COL at NYM (69 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Minnesota Twins

Projected: 6.03 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -100

·  Atlanta Braves

Projected: 5.68 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -125

·  Chicago Cubs

Projected: 5.32 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 3.01 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O + 130

·  New York Mets

Projected: 3.22 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -120

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.57 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -105

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Braves at Red Sox

Projected: 10.73 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -115

·  Orioles at Twins

Projected: 10.52 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -115

·  Cubs at Pirates

Projected: 9.73 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Rockies at Mets

Projected: 6.23 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.0 O -115

·  Phillies at Marlins

Projected: 7.35 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -120

·  Padres at Brewers

Projected: 8.07 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O + 100

GAMES OF THE DAY

Detroit Tigers (18-29) vs. Cleveland Indians (25-20)

O/U: 9 | DET + 125 | CLE -145

Tarik Skubal (THE BAT's No. 218 SP) vs. Aaron Civale (THE BAT's No. 149 SP)

Tim Timmons (Extreme Pitchers Umpire - No. 34 in MLB)

Comerica Park (No. 12 Runs | No. 23 HR | No. 28 K)

85 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

15 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Tarik Skubal's fastball (2230 rpm) has lost 192 rpm of spin this season relative to 2020

·  Tarik Skubal's skillset (49% FB% since 2019) ought to play well in Comerica Park (No. 8 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Aaron Civale has been throwing a fastball (18% increase) far more often in 2021 (27% usage) than he did in 2020 (9% usage)

·  Aaron Civale's sinker usage (10% in 2021, 22% in 2020) has decreased 12% this season

·  Aaron Civale is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his advantage given his large reverse platoon split

·  So far in 2021, Aaron Civale has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitcher, boasting a 3.30 ERA despite a 4.27 FIP

·  The Cleveland Indians' 20.0 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 2 least on today's slate of games

·  THE BAT X projects the Indians (No. 1 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.292 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  The Indians offense is quite fast; they have the No. 3 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Jose Ramirez, Amed Rosario, Cesar Hernandez)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Moneyline has the most lopsided action today with 89% of the bet tickets and 91% of the cash on the Indians

·  This game has the most lopsided Run Line today as 85% of the bet tickets and 60% of the cash is on the Indians

·  The Detroit Tigers Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 26-20 resulting in + 4.00 Units (8% ROI)

·  This season the Indians Team Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 25-19 resulting in + 3.64 Units (7% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Jose Ramirez's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 200/-305)

New York Mets (21-20) vs. Colorado Rockies (19-29)

O/U: 6 | NYM -260 | COL + 220

Jacob deGrom (THE BAT's No. 1 SP) vs. Kyle Freeland (THE BAT's No. 120 SP)

Chad Fairchild (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 25 in MLB)

Citi Field (No. 30 Runs | No. 15 HR | No. 4 K)

69 degrees (No. 3 coldest today)

12 mph out to CF (No. 3 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Jacob deGrom may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 70 pitches

·  Jacob deGrom's fastball (2400 rpm) has lost nearly 100 rpm of spin this season relative to 2020

·  Jacob deGrom has been throwing a fastball (19% increase) far more often in 2021 (64% usage) than he did in 2020 (45% usage)

·  Jacob deGrom's slider usage (23% in 2021, 36% in 2020) has decreased 13% this season

·  While THE BAT projects Jacob deGrom's ERA going forward to be 2.47, his actual has been 0.68 ERA, indicating some regression may be in order

·  Given that Groundball pitchers are most effective against Flyball hitters, Kyle Freeland (49% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with three Flyball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  The Mets' 0.286 team wOBA makes them the No. 4 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Rockies are the No. 2 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 27.0% according to THE BAT X

·  The Rockies have three players (Garrett Hampson, Raimel Tapia, Trevor Story) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 6.5 Runs and is now 6.0 Runs

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 82% of the cash and 57% of the bet tickets is on the Mets

·  The New York Mets Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 24-16 resulting in + 5.50 Units (12% ROI)

·  Jacob deGrom's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 9.5 Strikeouts (+ 125/-165) is the most popular prop for the game

Houston Astros (26-21) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (29-18)

O/U: 8.5 | HOU + 100 | LAD -120

Zack Greinke (THE BAT's No. 76 SP) vs. Clayton Kershaw (THE BAT's No. 11 SP)

Minute Maid Park (No. 22 Runs | No. 14 HR | No. 2 K)

72 degrees (No. 7 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Zack Greinke's sinker usage (7% in 2021, 19% in 2020) has decreased 12% this season

·  Zack Greinke has been throwing a curveball (13% increase) far more often in 2021 (21% usage) than he did in 2020 (8% usage)

·  Zack Greinke is throwing a changeup 14% more often this season (23% usage) than he did last season (9% usage)

·  Zack Greinke has a large reverse platoon split, making him less effective against same-handed hitters, which he's projected to face 6 of today

·  This season, Clayton Kershaw's fastball (90.1 mph) has been nearly a full mph slower than it was in 2020

·  Clayton Kershaw has added nearly 100 rpm of spin to his fastball (2567 rpm) in 2021

·  The Houston Astros' 18.5 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the lowest among today's slate of games

·  THE BAT X views the Astros as the No. 4 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Astros offense has the No. 2 (tie) most hitters in baseball with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or better this year (Kyle Tucker, Michael Brantley, Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel)

·  The Los Angeles Dodgers's 20.8 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 3 least on today's slate of games

·  The Dodgers offense has the most hitters in baseball with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or better this year (Mookie Betts, Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, Will Smith, Max Muncy)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Houston Astros Moneyline is showing the most line movement today as it opened at + 115 before dropping to + 100

·  The Game Total opened at 8.0 Runs, but is now 8.5 Runs as there is line movement toward the OVER

·  The Run Line has lopsided action today with 66% of the bet tickets and 86% of the cash on the Dodgers

·  There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 66% of the bet tickets and 86% of the cash is on the Dodgers

·  The Houston Astros Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 29-17 resulting in + 10.50 Units (20% ROI)

·  This season the Dodgers Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 24-22 resulting in + 0.25 Units (0% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Max Muncy's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 260/-425)

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