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MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Tuesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

TODAY'S RANKINGS ROUND-UP

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Brandon Woodruff (No. 6 out of 298)

2. PHI - Zack Wheeler (No. 13)

3. CWS - Lance Lynn (No. 19)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. SEA - Justin Dunn (No. 286 out of 298)

2. BAL - Matt Harvey (No. 285)

3. MIA - Cody Poteet (No. 256)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. CLE at LAA - Adam Hamari (No. 1 out of 110)

2. SF at CIN - Ron Kulpa (No. 2)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. NYM at ATL - Sam Holbrook (No. 7 out of 110)

2. WSH at CHC - John Tumpane (No. 39)

3. NYY at TEX - Brian Knight (No. 41)

Today's Hottest Games

1. BOS at TOR (82 degrees)

2. MIA at PHI (77 degrees)

3. TB at BAL (76 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. DET at SEA (53 degrees)

2. HOU at OAK (56 degrees)

3. COL at SD (63 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Tampa Bay Rays

Projected: 5.66 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -125

·  Atlanta Braves

Projected: 5.28 runs

·  Philadelphia Phillies

Projected: 5.27 runs

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 3.02 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -115

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.33 runs

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.62 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -105

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Rays at Orioles

Projected: 10.10 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -110

·  Mets at Braves

Projected: 9.76 runs

·  Nationals at Cubs

Projected: 9.53 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Rockies at Padres

Projected: 7.15 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -110

·  Pirates at Cardinals

Projected: 7.60 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115

·  Indians at Angels

Projected: 8.08 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -110

GAMES OF THE DAY

Cincinnati Reds (19-20) vs. San Francisco Giants (25-16)

O/U: 8 | CIN -125 | SF + 105

Luis Castillo (THE BAT's No. 47 SP) vs. Anthony DeSclafani (THE BAT's No. 152 SP)

Ron Kulpa (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 2 in MLB)

Great American Ball Park (No. 2 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)

72 degrees (No. 6 hottest today)

6 mph in from CF (No. 7 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Luis Castillo's fastball velocity (95.6 mph) has been down 1.2 mph from where it was in 2020 so far this season

·  Luis Castillo has added nearly 100 rpm of spin to his fastball (2264 rpm) in 2021

·  Great American Ball Park is baseball's best park for home runs, but Luis Castillo's groundball-heavy skillset (56% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Anthony DeSclafani and his 2.14 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 4.43 thus far in 2021

·  The Reds (25.3 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 3 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  According to THE BAT X, the Reds and their 0.328 wOBA have been the No. 5 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Reds offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 2 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Tyler Naquin, Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez)

·  According to THE BAT X, the Giants and their 0.311 wOBA have been the No. 4 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Giants offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 2 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Austin Slater, Brandon Crawford, Mauricio Dubon)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 8.5 and is now 8 

·  The San Francisco Giants Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 26-15 resulting in + 14.10 Units (28% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Cincinnati Reds has been their Game Total Over which is 26-11 generating + 13.85 Units (32% ROI)

·  Luis Castillo's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+ 105) is the most popular prop for the game

Oakland Athletics (25-17) vs. Houston Astros (24-17)

O/U: 8 | OAK -105 | HOU -115

Sean Manaea (THE BAT's No. 60 SP) vs. Cristian Javier (THE BAT's No. 95 SP)

Oakland Coliseum (No. 29 Runs | No. 28 HR | No. 13 K)

56 degrees (No. 2 coldest today)

13 mph out to RF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Thus far in 2021, Sean Manaea's fastball (90.8 mph) has been 1.1 mph faster than it was last season

·  Sean Manaea's fastball usage (0% in 2021, 54% in 2020) has decreased 54% this season

·  Sean Manaea is throwing a sinker 58% more often this season (58% usage) than he did last season (0% usage)

·  Cristian Javier (92.4 mph) has added nearly a full mph to his fastball velocity this season

·  Cristian Javier's skillset (45% FB% since 2019) ought to play well in Oakland Coliseum (No. 7 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Flyball pitchers tend to perform better against Groundball hitters, and Cristian Javier (45% FB% since 2019) is projected to face four of them today

·  So far in 2021, Cristian Javier has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitcher, boasting a 3.08 ERA despite a 3.59 FIP

·  The Athletics are the No. 4 most strikeout-prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 25.2% according to THE BAT X

·  The Athletics have six players (Matt Chapman, Seth Brown, Stephen Piscotty, Mark Canha, Ramon Laureano, Matt Olson) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, most in MLB

·  The Astros (18.7 K%, via THE BAT X) have the least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  According to THE BAT X, the Astros and their 0.328 wOBA have been the No. 6 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Astros have four players (Kyle Tucker, Michael Brantley, Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel) with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Astros Moneyline has steamed 10 cents as it opened at -105 and is now -115

·  The Game Total opened at 8.5 Runs, but is now 8.0 Runs as there is line movement toward the UNDER

·  The Oakland Athletics Moneyline has been their most profitable market this season and is 25-17 resulting in + 7.05 Units (14% ROI)

·  This season the Astros Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 24-16 resulting in + 6.60 Units (15% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Sean Manaea's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+ 110/-145)

Seattle Mariners (21-21) vs. Detroit Tigers (15-26)

O/U: 8 | SEA -125 | DET + 105

Justin Dunn (THE BAT's No. 286 SP) vs. Spencer Turnbull (THE BAT's No. 91 SP)

T-Mobile Park (No. 26 Runs | No. 6 HR | No. 1 K)

53 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

6 mph in from LF (No. 5 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Thus far in 2021, Justin Dunn's fastball (92.9 mph) has been 2.3 mph faster than it was last season

·  The spin rate on Justin Dunn's fastball (2361 rpm) has increased by 121 rpm in 2021

·  Justin Dunn is throwing a curveball 11% more often this season (34% usage) than he did last season (23% usage)

·  Justin Dunn may be especially susceptible to the long-ball today pitching in the No. 7 best home run park in baseball (T-Mobile Park) given his flyball tendencies (43% FB% since 2019)

·  Justin Dunn (43% FB% since 2019) projects to face two Groundball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Flyball pitchers perform worst against Groundball hitters

·  Justin Dunn's 3.72 ERA is 1.44 points better than his 5.17 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  T-Mobile Park is baseball's No. 7 best park for home runs, but Spencer Turnbull's groundball-heavy skillset (50% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Groundball pitchers tend to perform better against Flyball hitters, and Spencer Turnbull (50% GB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today

·  The Tigers have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 5 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.283 wOBA going forward

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Mariners Moneyline has 68% of the bet tickets and 80% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  This season the Mariners Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 26-16 resulting in + 7.45 Units (13% ROI)

·  The Detroit Tigers Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 24-17 resulting in + 5.25 Units (12% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Spencer Turnbull's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)

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