MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Tuesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

TODAY'S RANKINGS ROUND-UP

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. CLE - Shane Bieber (No. 3 out of 298)

2. MIL - Freddy Peralta (No. 14)

3. LAD - Walker Buehler (No. 18)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. TEX - Jordan Lyles (No. 272 out of 298)

2. CIN - Jeff Hoffman (No. 268)

3. PHI - Chase Anderson (No. 240)

Today's Hottest Games

1. MIA at ARI (82 degrees)

2. NYY at TB (72 degrees)

3. STL at MIL (72 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. SD at COL (42 degrees)

2. MIN at CWS (49 degrees)

3. CIN at PIT (52 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Houston Astros

Projected: 5.29 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -105

·  San Diego Padres

Projected: 5.11 runs

·  Washington Nationals

Projected: 5.00 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -100

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Baltimore Orioles

Projected: 2.76 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -130

·  Chicago Cubs

Projected: 3.24 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -125

·  New York Mets

Projected: 3.39 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 100

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Phillies at Nationals

Projected: 9.79 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -105

·  Blue Jays at Braves

Projected: 9.77 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -105

·  Athletics at Red Sox

Projected: 9.39 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Orioles at Mets

Projected: 6.14 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O -110

·  Cardinals at Brewers

Projected: 7.10 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -115

·  Cubs at Indians

Projected: 7.66 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O -120

GAMES OF THE DAY

Cleveland Indians (18-14) vs. Chicago Cubs (17-17)

O/U: 6.5 | CLE -190 | CHC + 165

Shane Bieber (THE BAT's No. 3 SP) vs. Adbert Alzolay (THE BAT's No. 117 SP)

Progressive Field (No. 4 Runs | No. 13 HR | No. 17 K)

52 degrees (No. 4 coldest today)

12 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  This season, Shane Bieber's fastball (92.4 mph) has been 1.1 mph slower than it was in 2020

·  Shane Bieber has been throwing a slider (17% increase) far more often in 2021 (28% usage) than he did in 2020 (11% usage)

·  Shane Bieber is throwing a cutter 12% less often this season (2% usage) than he did last season (14% usage)

·  Adbert Alzolay is a flyball pitcher (35% FB% since 2019) and Progressive Field is the No. 10 most extreme park in baseball for boosting home runs

·  Adbert Alzolay (35% FB% since 2019) projects to face 4 Groundball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Flyball pitchers perform worst against Groundball hitters

·  Adbert Alzolay (4.50 ERA) has been underperforming his 3.82 FIP by 0.68 points; quite unlucky indeed

·  The Indians (21.7 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 3 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Indians' 0.291 team wOBA makes them the No. 2 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  Cleveland boasts 4 active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB (Eddie Rosario, Cesar Hernandez, Amed Rosario, Jordan Luplow)

·  The Cubs have 5 players (Willson Contreras, Jason Heyward, David Bote, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 7.0 Runs and is now 6.5 Runs

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 84% of the cash and 54% of the bet tickets on the Indians

·  The Chicago Cubs Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 22-10 resulting in + 10.15 Units (27% ROI)

·  The Cleveland Indians Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 20-12 resulting in + 6.10 Units (14% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks (16-19) vs. Miami Marlins (15-19)

O/U: 8 | ARI -120 | MIA + 100

Madison Bumgarner (THE BAT's No. 227 SP) vs. Pablo Lopez (THE BAT's No. 24 SP)

Chad Fairchild (Extreme Hitters Umpire - No. 28 in MLB)

Chase Field (No. 8 Runs | No. 25 HR | No. 26 K)

82 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

3 mph in from LF (No. 7 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Thus far in 2021, Madison Bumgarner's fastball (90.0 mph) has been 2.1 mph faster than it was last season

·  The spin rate on Madison Bumgarner's fastball (2519 rpm) has increased by 124 rpm in 2021

·  Madison Bumgarner's flyball nature (37% FB% since 2019) should play well in Chase Field (No. 4 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Flyball pitchers tend to perform worse against Groundball hitters, and Madison Bumgarner (37% FB% since 2019) is projected to face 3 of them today

·  Despite a 4.02 FIP, Madison Bumgarner's unlucky ERA has been 0.89 points worse at 4.91

·  According to THE BAT X, the D-Backs and their 0.313 wOBA have been the No. 5 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The D-Backs have 3 players (Josh VanMeter, Carson Kelly, Eduardo Escobar) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Marlins have 3 players (Adam Duvall, Brian Anderson, Jesus Aguilar) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most profitable market for the Arizona Diamondbacks has been their Team Total Over which is 20-13 generating + 4.28 Units (11% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Miami Marlins has been their Run Line which is 19-15 generating + 2.15 Units (5% ROI)

San Francisco Giants (21-14) vs. Texas Rangers (18-19)

O/U: 8.5 | SF -160 | TEX + 140

Logan Webb (THE BAT's No. 86 SP) vs. Jordan Lyles (THE BAT's No. 272 SP)

Cory Blaser (Extreme Pitchers Umpire - No. 27 in MLB)

Oracle Park (No. 23 Runs | No. 27 HR | No. 11 K)

67 degrees (No. 7 hottest today)

8 mph out to LF (No. 4 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Logan Webb has been throwing a fastball (18% increase) far less often in 2021 (15% usage) than he did in 2020 (33% usage)

·  Logan Webb has been throwing a sinker (18% increase) far more often in 2021 (31% usage) than he did in 2020 (13% usage)

·  Given that Groundball pitchers are most effective against Flyball hitters, Logan Webb (53% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with four Flyball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Jordan Lyles's slider usage (29% in 2021, 13% in 2020) has increased 16% this season

·  Jordan Lyles is throwing a curveball 12% less often this season (17% usage) than he did last season (29% usage)

·  The spin rate on Jordan Lyles's fastball (2334 rpm) has increased by 189 rpm in 2021

·  THE BAT X views the Giants as the No. 2 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Giants have four players (Wilmer Flores, Austin Slater, Brandon Crawford, Mauricio Dubon) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Rangers are the No. 2 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 27.2% according to THE BAT X

·  The projected lineup for the Rangers holds three extremely strikeout-prone bats today: Jordan Lyles, Joey Gallo, Adolis Garcia. THE BAT projects all for a Jordan Lyles, Joey Gallo, Adolis Garcia+ underlying K%

·  THE BAT X views the Rangers as the No. 1 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Rangers have 3 players (Adolis Garcia, Charlie Culberson, Jose Trevino) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has moved toward the OVER after the Total opened at 8.0 Runs and is now 8.5 Runs

·  The OVER has 77% of the bet tickets and 81% of the cash resulting in a lopsided handle for the Game Total

·  The Giants Run Line has 82% of the cash and 55% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  This season the Giants Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 22-13 resulting in + 11.80 Units (27% ROI)

·  The Texas Rangers Team Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 22-14 resulting in + 5.90 Units (14% ROI)

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