This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.
TODAY'S RANKINGS
Today's Best Starting Pitchers
1. CLE - Shane Bieber (No. 6 out of 299)
2. CWS - Carlos Rodon (No. 10)
3. PHI - Aaron Nola (No. 14)
Today's Worst Starting Pitchers
1. WSH - Jon Lester (No. 275 out of 299)
2. TEX - Jordan Lyles (No. 269)
3. BAL - Bruce Zimmermann (No. 265)
Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires
1. CHC at SD - Jansen Visconti (No. 28 out of 110)
Today's Hottest Games
1. NYY at MIN (93 degrees)
2. NYM at BAL (82 degrees)
3. SEA at DET (82 degrees)
Today's Coldest Games
1. ARI at OAK (56 degrees)
2. CHC at SD (64 degrees)
3. KC at LAA (67 degrees)
THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals
· New York Yankees
Projected: 5.70 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -115
· New York Mets
Projected: 5.60 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -120
· Houston Astros
Projected: 5.53 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -125
THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals
· Colorado Rockies
Projected: 3.28 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -130
· St. Louis Cardinals
Projected: 3.33 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -140
· Chicago Cubs
Projected: 3.71 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105
THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals
· Yankees at Twins
Projected: 10.40 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -110
· Astros at Red Sox
Projected: 10.32 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -115
· Mets at Orioles
Projected: 9.92 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105
THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals
· Rockies at Marlins
Projected: 7.08 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O + 100
· Indians at Cardinals
Projected: 7.37 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O + 105
· Cubs at Padres
Projected: 8.22 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -110
GAMES OF THE DAY
Baltimore Orioles (21-38) vs. New York Mets (29-23)
O/U: 9.5 | BAL -105 | NYM -115
Bruce Zimmermann (THE BAT's No. 265 SP) vs. David Peterson (THE BAT's No. 116 SP)
Oriole Park at Camden Yards (No. 7 Runs | No. 7 HR | No. 24 K)
82 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)
4 mph out to LF (No. 6 weakest winds today)
DATA NUGGETS
· Bruce Zimmermann has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against 7 opposite-handed hitters today
· David Peterson's ability to keep the ball on the ground (48% GB% since 2019) should help him in Oriole Park at Camden Yards (No. 4 best HR park in MLB) today
· David Peterson has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against 8 opposite-handed hitters today
· THE BAT X views the Orioles as the No. 7 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward
· The Mets are the No. 3 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 21.4% according to THE BAT X
BETTING INSIGHTS
· The Baltimore Orioles Moneyline opening price of + 105 has steamed 10 cents and is now -105
· The most profitable market for the New York Mets has been their Game Total Under which is 28-22 generating + 3.20 Units (6% ROI)
· The most profitable market for the Baltimore Orioles has been their Game Total Under which is 31-26 generating + 2.40 Units (4% ROI)
Philadelphia Phillies (28-30) vs. Atlanta Braves (28-29)
O/U: 9 | PHI -160 | ATL + 140
Aaron Nola (THE BAT's No. 14 SP) vs. Drew Smyly (THE BAT's No. 208 SP)
Citizens Bank Park (No. 20 Runs | No. 4 HR | No. 12 K)
81 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)
7 mph across the field
DATA NUGGETS
· Aaron Nola (3.84 ERA) has been underperforming his 3.27 FIP by 0.57 points; quite unlucky indeed
· Drew Smyly may be especially susceptible to the long-ball today pitching in the No. 8 best home run park in baseball (Citizens Bank Park) given his flyball tendencies (38% FB% since 2019)
· Flyball pitchers tend to perform worse against Groundball hitters, and Drew Smyly (38% FB% since 2019) is projected to face three of them today
· Drew Smyly's reverse platoon split makes him especially effective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face seven of them today
· The Phillies offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 2 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (J.T. Realmuto, Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins)
· Atlanta boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Sprint Speed this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB (Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna Jr.)
BETTING INSIGHTS
· There is line movement toward the OVER after the Game Total opened at 8.5 Runs and is now 9.0 Runs
· This season the Braves Team Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 34-20 resulting in + 10.22 Units (15% ROI)
Cincinnati Reds (28-29) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (33-26)
O/U: 8.5 | CIN -140 | MIL + 120
Sonny Gray (THE BAT's No. 24 SP) vs. Adrian Houser (THE BAT's No. 123 SP)
Great American Ball Park (No. 2 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)
78 degrees (No. 7 hottest today)
6 mph in from RF (No. 5 strongest winds today)
DATA NUGGETS
· Adrian Houser's sinker usage (54% in 2021, 44% in 2020) has increased 10% this season
· Great American Ball Park is baseball's No. 1 best park for home runs, but Adrian Houser's groundball-heavy skillset (58% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball
· Given that Groundball pitchers are most effective against Flyball hitters, Adrian Houser (58% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with two fly ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup
· Adrian Houser has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 4.07 ERA is 0.90 points below his 4.97 FIP
· Cincinnati boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB (Eugenio Suarez, Tyler Naquin, Jesse Winker)
· The Brewers are the most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 26.8% according to THE BAT X
· The Brewers have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 2 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.293 wOBA going forward
BETTING INSIGHTS
· The Cincinnati Reds Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 34-21 resulting in + 10.75 Units (17% ROI)
· The Milwaukee Brewers Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 32-27 resulting in + 5.20 Units (7% ROI)