MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Tuesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. CLE - Shane Bieber (No. 6 out of 299)

2. CWS - Carlos Rodon (No. 10)

3. PHI - Aaron Nola (No. 14)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. WSH - Jon Lester (No. 275 out of 299)

2. TEX - Jordan Lyles (No. 269)

3. BAL - Bruce Zimmermann (No. 265)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. CHC at SD - Jansen Visconti (No. 28 out of 110)

Today's Hottest Games

1. NYY at MIN (93 degrees)

2. NYM at BAL (82 degrees)

3. SEA at DET (82 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. ARI at OAK (56 degrees)

2. CHC at SD (64 degrees)

3. KC at LAA (67 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 5.70 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -115

·  New York Mets

Projected: 5.60 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -120

·  Houston Astros

Projected: 5.53 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -125

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 3.28 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -130

·  St. Louis Cardinals

Projected: 3.33 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -140

·  Chicago Cubs

Projected: 3.71 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Yankees at Twins

Projected: 10.40 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -110

·  Astros at Red Sox

Projected: 10.32 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -115

·  Mets at Orioles

Projected: 9.92 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Rockies at Marlins

Projected: 7.08 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O + 100

·  Indians at Cardinals

Projected: 7.37 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O + 105

·  Cubs at Padres

Projected: 8.22 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -110

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

Baltimore Orioles (21-38) vs. New York Mets (29-23)

O/U: 9.5 | BAL -105 | NYM -115

Bruce Zimmermann (THE BAT's No. 265 SP) vs. David Peterson (THE BAT's No. 116 SP)

Oriole Park at Camden Yards (No. 7 Runs | No. 7 HR | No. 24 K)

82 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

4 mph out to LF (No. 6 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Bruce Zimmermann has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against 7 opposite-handed hitters today

·  David Peterson's ability to keep the ball on the ground (48% GB% since 2019) should help him in Oriole Park at Camden Yards (No. 4 best HR park in MLB) today

·  David Peterson has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against 8 opposite-handed hitters today

·  THE BAT X views the Orioles as the No. 7 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Mets are the No. 3 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 21.4% according to THE BAT X

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Baltimore Orioles Moneyline opening price of + 105 has steamed 10 cents and is now -105

·  The most profitable market for the New York Mets has been their Game Total Under which is 28-22 generating + 3.20 Units (6% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Baltimore Orioles has been their Game Total Under which is 31-26 generating + 2.40 Units (4% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies (28-30) vs. Atlanta Braves (28-29)

O/U: 9 | PHI -160 | ATL + 140

Aaron Nola (THE BAT's No. 14 SP) vs. Drew Smyly (THE BAT's No. 208 SP)

Citizens Bank Park (No. 20 Runs | No. 4 HR | No. 12 K)

81 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

7 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Aaron Nola (3.84 ERA) has been underperforming his 3.27 FIP by 0.57 points; quite unlucky indeed

·  Drew Smyly may be especially susceptible to the long-ball today pitching in the No. 8 best home run park in baseball (Citizens Bank Park) given his flyball tendencies (38% FB% since 2019)

·  Flyball pitchers tend to perform worse against Groundball hitters, and Drew Smyly (38% FB% since 2019) is projected to face three of them today

·  Drew Smyly's reverse platoon split makes him especially effective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face seven of them today

·  The Phillies offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 2 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (J.T. Realmuto, Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins)

·  Atlanta boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Sprint Speed this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB (Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna Jr.)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the OVER after the Game Total opened at 8.5 Runs and is now 9.0 Runs

·  This season the Braves Team Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 34-20 resulting in + 10.22 Units (15% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds (28-29) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (33-26)

O/U: 8.5 | CIN -140 | MIL + 120

Sonny Gray (THE BAT's No. 24 SP) vs. Adrian Houser (THE BAT's No. 123 SP)

Great American Ball Park (No. 2 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)

78 degrees (No. 7 hottest today)

6 mph in from RF (No. 5 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Adrian Houser's sinker usage (54% in 2021, 44% in 2020) has increased 10% this season

·  Great American Ball Park is baseball's No. 1 best park for home runs, but Adrian Houser's groundball-heavy skillset (58% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Given that Groundball pitchers are most effective against Flyball hitters, Adrian Houser (58% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with two fly ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Adrian Houser has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 4.07 ERA is 0.90 points below his 4.97 FIP

·  Cincinnati boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB (Eugenio Suarez, Tyler Naquin, Jesse Winker)

·  The Brewers are the most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 26.8% according to THE BAT X

·  The Brewers have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 2 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.293 wOBA going forward

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Cincinnati Reds Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 34-21 resulting in + 10.75 Units (17% ROI)

·  The Milwaukee Brewers Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 32-27 resulting in + 5.20 Units (7% ROI)

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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