MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Tuesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. PHI - Zack Wheeler (No. 3 out of 295)

2. NYY - Gerrit Cole (No. 4)

3. WSH - Max Scherzer (No. 8)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. CLE - Eli Morgan (No. 277 out of 295)

2. STL - Johan Oviedo (No. 262)

3. BAL - Jorge Lopez (No. 202)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. CLE at CHC - Tripp Gibson (No. 14 out of 110)

2. MIL at ARI - Jeremy Riggs (No. 17)

3. CIN at MIN - Jim Wolf (No. 21)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. OAK at TEX - John Libka (No. 12 out of 110)

Today's Hottest Games

1. MIL at ARI (78 degrees)

2. COL at SEA (76 degrees)

3. BOS at TB (72 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. CWS at PIT (64 degrees)

2. ATL at NYM (65 degrees)

3. WSH at PHI (65 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Houston Astros

Projected: 5.50 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -100

·  St. Louis Cardinals

Projected: 5.00 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 100

·  Los Angeles Angels

Projected: 4.97 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 100

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.24 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 110

·  San Diego Padres

Projected: 3.30 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 100

·  Kansas City Royals

Projected: 3.36 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -115

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Astros at Orioles

Projected: 9.65 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O + 105

·  Cardinals at Tigers

Projected: 9.54 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -110

·  Giants at Angels

Projected: 9.52 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Braves at Mets

Projected: 7.18 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -120

·  White Sox at Pirates

Projected: 7.24 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -105

·  Dodgers at Padres

Projected: 7.27 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -105

GAMES OF THE DAY

Detroit Tigers (30-42) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (36-36)

O/U: 8.5 | DET + 100 | STL -120

Tarik Skubal (THE BAT's No. 158 SP) vs. Johan Oviedo (THE BAT's No. 262 SP)

Comerica Park (No. 20 Runs | No. 23 HR | No. 28 K)

68 degrees (No. 6 coldest today)

8 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Tarik Skubal's fastball (2222 rpm) has lost 200 rpm of spin this season relative to 2020

·  Tarik Skubal has been throwing a fastball (12% increase) far less often in 2021 (49% usage) than he did in 2020 (61% usage)

·  As an extreme fly ball pitcher (44% FB% since 2019), Tarik Skubal matches up well with Comerica Park (No. 6 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Given that fly ball pitchers are most effective against ground ball hitters, Tarik Skubal (44% FB% since 2019) is well-situated today with three ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Johan Oviedo has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 4.58 ERA is 0.60 points below his 5.18 FIP

·  The St. Louis Cardinals' 22.0 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 3 least on today's slate of games

·  The Cardinals' 0.293 team wOBA makes them the No. 3 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 9.0 Runs and is now 8.5 Runs

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 77% of the bet tickets and 79% of the cash is on the Cardinals

·  The most profitable market for the Detroit Tigers has been their Game Total Under which is 38-31 generating + 4.20 Units (5% ROI)

·  The St. Louis Cardinals Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 35-31 resulting in + 0.61 Units (1% ROI)

·  Tarik Skubal's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+ 100) is the most popular prop for the game

Miami Marlins (31-40) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (35-35)

O/U: 7.5 | MIA -125 | TOR + 105

Sandy Alcantara (THE BAT's No. 38 SP) vs. Ross Stripling (THE BAT's No. 87 SP)

Marlins Park (No. 27 Runs | No. 29 HR | No. 16 K)

72 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Sandy Alcantara is throwing a sinker 12% less often this season (27% usage) than he did last season (39% usage)

·  Sandy Alcantara has been throwing a changeup (17% increase) far more often in 2021 (27% usage) than he did in 2020 (10% usage)

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform worse against fly ball hitters, and Sandy Alcantara (48% GB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today

·  Ross Stripling's spin rate (2183 rpm) has decreased by nearly 100 rpm in 2021

·  Ross Stripling's large reverse platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face seven of them today

·  THE BAT's 4.07 projected ERA for Ross Stripling is quite a bit better than his 4.64 ERA this season

·  The Miami Marlins' 27.7 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the most on today's slate of games

·  Strikeouts against Miami may be easy to come by today, as three players (Jorge Alfaro, Jazz Chisholm, Sandy Alcantara) project for a 30%+ underlying K%, via THE BAT X

·  The Marlins (0.293 wOBA) have been the No. 6 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  The Marlins offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 1 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Jesus Aguilar, Starling Marte, Adam Duvall)

·  The Blue Jays have four players (Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Rowdy Tellez, Teoscar Hernandez) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most line movement today is the Miami Marlins Moneyline as it opened at -105 before dropping to -125

·  This season the Marlins Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 36-30 resulting in + 2.60 Units (3% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Toronto Blue Jays has been their Team Total Over which is 36-28 generating + 1.22 Units (1% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Sandy Alcantara's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/-105)

Arizona Diamondbacks (21-53) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (40-33)

O/U: 8 | ARI + 125 | MIL -145

Zac Gallen (THE BAT's No. 36 SP) vs. Freddy Peralta (THE BAT's No. 17 SP)

Jeremy Riggs (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 17 in MLB)

Chase Field (No. 8 Runs | No. 25 HR | No. 26 K)

78 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Zac Gallen may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 73 pitches

·  Zac Gallen is throwing a fastball 19% more often this season (58% usage) than he did last season (39% usage)

·  Zac Gallen is throwing a cutter 17% less often this season (7% usage) than he did last season (24% usage)

·  Freddy Peralta's skillset (40% FB% since 2019) ought to play well in Chase Field (No. 2 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  While THE BAT projects Freddy Peralta's ERA going forward to be 3.51, his actual has been 2.28 ERA, indicating some regression may be in order

·  The Brewers are the No. 4 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 25.4% according to THE BAT X

·  The Brewers' 0.292 team wOBA makes them the No. 2 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Brewers offense is quite fast; they have the No. 7 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Avisail Garcia, Willy Adames, Christian Yelich)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total opened at 8.5 Runs, but is now 8.0 Runs as there is line movement toward the UNDER

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 69% of the cash and 61% of the bet tickets is on the Brewers

·  This season the Brewers Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 38-34 resulting in + 3.80 Units (4% ROI)

·  The Arizona Diamondbacks Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 39-33 resulting in + 2.40 Units (3% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Freddy Peralta's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-160/+ 120)

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

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