MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Tuesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. SD - Yu Darvish (No. 19 out of 296)

2. LAD - Julio Urias (No. 29)

3. CIN - Luis Castillo (No. 34)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. BAL - Matt Harvey (No. 275 out of 296)

2. CHC - Alec Mills (No. 271)

3. COL - Chi Chi Gonzalez (No. 261)

Today's Hottest Games

1. SD at COL (97 degrees)

2. DET at KC (90 degrees)

3. PHI at LAD (90 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. MIN at SEA (64 degrees)

2. NYY at TOR (65 degrees)

3. ARI at SF (65 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  San Diego Padres

Projected: 7.25 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O -130

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 5.22 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 115

·  Cleveland Indians

Projected: 5.21 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -125

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Texas Rangers

Projected: 3.75 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 100

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 3.91 runs

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.95 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -110

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Padres at Rockies

Projected: 12.47 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.5 O -110

·  Yankees at Blue Jays

Projected: 10.25 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -120

·  Red Sox at Braves

Projected: 9.78 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  D-Backs at Giants

Projected: 7.94 runs

·  Marlins at Cardinals

Projected: 8.22 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115

·  Rays at White Sox

Projected: 8.29 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -115

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

New York Mets (33-25) vs. Chicago Cubs (38-28)

O/U: 8.5 | NYM -145 | CHC + 125

(THE BAT's No. SP) vs. (THE BAT's No. SP)

(No. Runs | No. HR | No. K)

77 degrees (No. 6 hottest today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  So far in 2021, Taijuan Walker's fastball (93.7 mph) has been 1.2 mph faster than it was last season

·  Taijuan Walker is throwing a sinker 13% more often this season (25% usage) than he did last season (12% usage)

·  Taijuan Walker has been throwing a slider (21% increase) far more often in 2021 (21% usage) than he did in 2020 (0% usage)

·  Taijuan Walker is throwing a cutter 21% less often this season (0% usage) than he did last season (21% usage)

·  Taijuan Walker's 2.07 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 4.06 projected ERA from THE BAT

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most profitable market for the Chicago Cubs has been their Moneyline which is 38-28 generating + 10.80 Units (13% ROI)

·  This season the Mets Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 33-25 resulting in + 4.80 Units (7% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers (38-28) vs. Cincinnati Reds (33-31)

O/U: 8.5 | MIL -110 | CIN -110

(THE BAT's No. SP) vs. (THE BAT's No. SP)

(No. Runs | No. HR | No. K)

67 degrees (No. 4 coldest today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  So far in 2021, Brett Anderson has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitcher, boasting a 4.99 ERA despite a 5.65 FIP

·  This season, Luis Castillo's fastball (96.0 mph) has been nearly a full mph slower than it was in 2020

·  Luis Castillo has added nearly 100 rpm of spin to his fastball (2287 rpm) in 2021

·  The Brewers' 0.295 team wOBA makes them the No. 2 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Brewers offense is quite fast; they have the No. 7 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Willy Adames, Christian Yelich, Avisail Garcia)

·  THE BAT X views the Reds as the No. 5 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  Cincinnati boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB (Eugenio Suarez, Jesse Winker, Tyler Naquin, Joey Votto)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Reds Moneyline has 65% of the cash and 63% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The Cincinnati Reds Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 38-23 resulting in + 12.55 Units (18% ROI)

·  The Milwaukee Brewers Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 37-29 resulting in + 8.10 Units (9% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals (33-33) vs. Miami Marlins (29-37)

O/U: 7.5 | STL -130 | MIA + 110

(THE BAT's No. SP) vs. (THE BAT's No. SP)

(No. Runs | No. HR | No. K)

87 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Kwang Hyun Kim (88.4 mph) has lost nearly a full mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Kwang Hyun Kim and his 4.05 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 4.65 thus far in 2021

·  Thus far in 2021, Trevor Rogers's fastball (94.0 mph) has been 1.2 mph faster than it was last season

·  The Cardinals have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 4 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.297 wOBA going forward

·  THE BAT X views the Marlins as the No. 6 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Marlins have four players (Jon Berti, Jazz Chisholm, Adam Duvall, Starling Marte) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Cardinals Moneyline opening price of -110 is gaining heavy steam and is now -130

·  The Miami Marlins Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 34-28 resulting in + 2.75 Units (4% ROI)

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

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