MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Tuesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS R

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. CLE - Shane Bieber (No. 6 out of 299)

2. PHI - Aaron Nola (No. 12)

3. TB - Tyler Glasnow (No. 15)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. PIT - Wil Crowe (No. 267 out of 299)

2. BAL - Bruce Zimmermann (No. 263)

3. STL - John Gant (No. 212)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. OAK at SEA - Ben May (No. 10 out of 110)

2. TB at NYY - Chris Guccione (No. 14)

3. PIT at KC - Dan Bellino (No. 16)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. BOS at HOU - Carlos Torres (No. 17 out of 110)

2. LAA at SF - Jeff Nelson (No. 24)

3. SD at CHC - Andy Fletcher (No. 26)

Today's Hottest Games

1. NYM at ARI (86 degrees)

2. WSH at ATL (79 degrees)

3. OAK at SEA (78 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. LAA at SF (54 degrees)

2. MIA at TOR (66 degrees)

3. TEX at COL (66 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Minnesota Twins

Projected: 5.76 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -135

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 5.13 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -115

·  Houston Astros

Projected: 5.09 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Detroit Tigers

Projected: 3.22 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 110

·  Chicago White Sox

Projected: 3.31 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 115

·  Los Angeles Angels

Projected: 3.51 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -145

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Twins at Orioles

Projected: 10.19 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -115

·  Mets at D-Backs

Projected: 9.72 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -115

·  Red Sox at Astros

Projected: 9.65 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Marlins at Blue Jays

Projected: 6.86 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -105

·  Angels at Giants

Projected: 7.25 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -105

·  Tigers at Brewers

Projected: 7.32 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O + 100

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

Toronto Blue Jays (27-25) vs. Miami Marlins (24-28)

O/U: 8.5 | TOR -160 | MIA + 140

Robbie Ray (THE BAT's No. 136 SP) vs. Sandy Alcantara (THE BAT's No. 46 SP)

Sahlen Field (No. Runs | No. HR | No. K)

66 degrees (No. 2 coldest today)

7 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Robbie Ray (94.6 mph) has added 1.2 mph to his fastball velocity this season

·  The spin on Robbie Ray's fastball (2270 rpm) has been 150 rpm less than it was in 2020

·  Robbie Ray's large platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face 6 of them today

·  Robbie Ray's 3.81 ERA is 1.39 points better than his 5.20 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  Sandy Alcantara's sinker usage (24% in 2021, 39% in 2020) has decreased 15% this season

·  Sandy Alcantara's changeup usage (28% in 2021, 10% in 2020) has increased 18% this season

·  The Blue Jays (21.4 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 5 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Blue Jays offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 1 most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, Rowdy Tellez)

·  The Miami Marlins's 20.3 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 2 least on today's slate of games

·  Miami boasts 3 active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Sprint Speed this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB (Jazz Chisholm, Adam Duvall, Jon Berti)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Marlins Moneyline has 22% of the cash, but the it's dropped from + 150 to + 140 resulting in reverse line movement

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 78% of the cash and 57% of the bet tickets is on the Blue Jays

·  The most profitable market for the Miami Marlins has been their Game Total Under which is 28-21 generating + 4.65 Units (8% ROI)

·  The Toronto Blue Jays Team Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 26-20 resulting in + 1.20 Units (2% ROI)

·  Sandy Alcantara's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110) is the most popular prop for the game

Colorado Rockies (20-34) vs. Texas Rangers (22-33)

O/U: 9.5 | COL -115 | TEX -105

German Marquez (THE BAT's No. 37 SP) vs. Dane Dunning (THE BAT's No. 54 SP)

Coors Field (No. 1 Runs | No. 11 HR | No. 30 K)

66 degrees (No. 3 coldest today)

6 mph in from CF (No. 6 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  This season, German Marquez's fastball (94.3 mph) has been 1.1 mph slower than it was in 2020

·  The spin on German Marquez's fastball (2075 rpm) has been nearly 100 rpm less than it was in 2020

·  Coors Field is baseball's No. 10 best park for home runs, but German Marquez's groundball-heavy skillset (51% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Given that Groundball pitchers are most effective against Flyball hitters, German Marquez (51% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with 4 Flyball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Dane Dunning has been throwing a fastball (22% increase) far less often in 2021 (0% usage) than he did in 2020 (22% usage)

·  Dane Dunning has been throwing a sinker (19% increase) far more often in 2021 (58% usage) than he did in 2020 (39% usage)

·  Coors Field is baseball's No. 10 best park for home runs, but Dane Dunning's groundball-heavy skillset (51% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Groundball pitchers tend to perform better against Flyball hitters, and Dane Dunning (51% GB% since 2019) is projected to face 2 of them today

·  Dane Dunning (4.75 ERA) has been underperforming his 3.18 FIP by 1.57 points; quite unlucky indeed

·  The Rockies (25.7 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 5 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Rockies have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 6 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.296 wOBA going forward

·  The Rockies have 3 players (Yonathan Daza, Garrett Hampson, Raimel Tapia) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

·  Strikeouts against Texas may be easy to come by today, as 3 players (Dane Dunning, Joey Gallo, Adolis Garcia) project for a 30%+ underlying K%, via THE BAT X

·  The Rangers offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 2 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Nate Lowe, Adolis Garcia, Joey Gallo)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The opening Moneyline for the Rangers was + 105, but is now -105 after it steamed 10 cents

·  The Texas Rangers Team Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 30-24 resulting in + 2.32 Units (4% ROI)

·  The Colorado Rockies Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 28-24 resulting in + 0.70 Units (1% ROI)

·  German Marquez's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+ 120/-160) is the most popular prop for the game

Seattle Mariners (28-27) vs. Oakland Athletics (31-25)

O/U: 7.5 | SEA + 135 | OAK -155

Marco Gonzales (THE BAT's No. 119 SP) vs. Chris Bassitt (THE BAT's No. 42 SP)

Ben May (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 10 in MLB)

T-Mobile Park (No. 26 Runs | No. 6 HR | No. 1 K)

78 degrees (No. 3 hottest today)

7 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Marco Gonzales may be limited today, with THE BAT projecting a maximum pitch count of roughly 61 pitches

·  Marco Gonzales is throwing a cutter 13% less often this season (11% usage) than he did last season (24% usage)

·  While THE BAT projects Chris Bassitt's ERA going forward to be 3.72, his actual has been 3.21 ERA, indicating some regression may be in order

·  THE BAT X projects the Mariners (No. 5 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.282 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  Seattle boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB (Kyle Lewis, Mitch Haniger, Kyle Seager)

·  The Athletics offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 2 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Matt Olson, Ramon Laureano, Seth Brown)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has moved toward the UNDER after the Total opened at 8.0 Runs and is now 7.5 Runs

·  The Athletics Run Line has steamed 15 cents as it opened at -1.5 (+ 120) and is now -1.5 (+ 105)

·  The Seattle Mariners Moneyline has been their most profitable market this season and is 28-27 resulting in + 6.30 Units (11% ROI)

·  This season the Athletics Moneyline has been their most profitable market and is 31-25 resulting in + 2.05 Units (3% ROI)

·  Chris Bassitt's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160/+ 120) is the most popular prop for the game

OUND-UP

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

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