MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Tuesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYM - Jacob deGrom (No. 1 out of 337)

2. CWS - Carlos Rodon (No. 7)

3. PHI - Aaron Nola (No. 14)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. DET - Jose Urena (No. 319 out of 337)

2. PIT - Chad Kuhl (No. 309)

3. WSH - Jefry Rodriguez (No. 279)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. DET at TEX - Gabe Morales (No. 30 out of 110)

2. BOS at LAA - Lance Barrett (No. 39)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. LAD at MIA - Carlos Torres (No. 7 out of 110)

Today's Hottest Games

1. TOR at BAL (92 degrees)

2. ATL at PIT (89 degrees)

3. MIL at NYM (88 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. STL at SF (57 degrees)

2. CWS at MIN (68 degrees)

3. WSH at SD (68 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 6.78 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O 105

·  Philadelphia Phillies

Projected: 6.15 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O 105

·  Cincinnati Reds

Projected: 5.77 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Milwaukee Brewers

Projected: 2.68 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O 105

·  Minnesota Twins

Projected: 3.61 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -125

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.70 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -105

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Blue Jays at Orioles

Projected: 11.64 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.0 O -105

·  Phillies at Cubs

Projected: 10.97 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -105

·  Reds at Royals

Projected: 10.38 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Brewers at Mets

Projected: 6.68 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -110

·  Dodgers at Marlins

Projected: 7.86 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -110

·  White Sox at Twins

Projected: 7.93 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -115

GAMES OF THE DAY

Pittsburgh Pirates (31-53) vs. Atlanta Braves (41-43)

O/U: 9.0 | PIT 160 | ATL -180

Chad Kuhl (THE BAT's No. 309 SP) vs. Ian Anderson (THE BAT's No. 21 SP)

PNC Park (No. 21 Runs | No. 26 HR | No. 25 K)

89 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

7 mph out to LF (No. 5 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Chad Kuhl has been throwing a fastball (12% increase) far more often in 2021 (14% usage) than he did in 2020 (2% usage)

·  Chad Kuhl's sinker usage (26% in 2021, 43% in 2020) has decreased 17% this season

·  Chad Kuhl has been throwing a slider (11% increase) far more often in 2021 (44% usage) than he did in 2020 (33% usage)

·  Thus far in 2021, Ian Anderson's fastball (94.2 mph) has been nearly a full mph faster than it was last season

·  Ian Anderson is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his disadvantage given his large reverse platoon split

·  The Pirates are the No. 3 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 22.5% according to THE BAT X

·  Atlanta boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Sprint Speed this season, No. 8 (tie) most in MLB (Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna Jr.)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has moved toward the OVER after the Total opened at 8.5 Runs and is now 9.0 Runs

·  The opening Run Line for the Atlanta Braves was -1.5 (-110), but is now -1.5 (-120) after it steamed 10 cents

·  The Braves Moneyline has 77% of the bet tickets and 89% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  This season the Pirates Team Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 49-33 resulting in 10.98 Units (11% ROI)

·  This season the Braves Team Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 42-35 resulting in 0.49 Units (1% ROI)

·  Ronald Acuna Jr.'s Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs ( 220/-345)

Miami Marlins (36-47) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (53-32)

O/U: 8.0 | MIA 120 | LAD -140

Pablo Lopez (THE BAT's No. 20 SP) vs. Tony Gonsolin (THE BAT's No. 110 SP)

Carlos Torres (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 7 in MLB)

Marlins Park (No. 27 Runs | No. 29 HR | No. 16 K)

72 degrees (No. 6 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Pablo Lopez and his 2.97 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 3.49 thus far in 2021

·  Tony Gonsolin (92.7 mph) has lost 1.9 mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Tony Gonsolin's fastball (2402 rpm) has lost nearly 100 rpm of spin this season relative to 2020

·  Tony Gonsolin's fly ball nature (36% FB% since 2019) should play well in Marlins Park (No. 3 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Given that fly ball pitchers are least effective against Ground ball hitters, Tony Gonsolin (36% FB% since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with five Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  The Marlins (26.6 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 2 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  Strikeouts against Miami may be easy to come by today, as three players (Jazz Chisholm, Jorge Alfaro, Pablo Lopez) project for a 30% underlying K%, via THE BAT X

·  THE BAT X views the Marlins as the No. 6 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Marlins offense is quite fast; they have the No. 4 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Jazz Chisholm, Jon Berti, Adam Duvall, Starling Marte)

·  Los Angeles boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB (Chris Taylor, Albert Pujols, Justin Turner)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline opening price of -125 has steamed 15 cents and is now -140

·  There is line movement toward the OVER after the Game Total opened at 7.5 Runs and is now 8.0 Runs

·  The Moneyline has the most lopsided action today with 77% of the bet tickets and 94% of the cash on the Dodgers

·  The Miami Marlins Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 44-35 resulting in 5.05 Units (5% ROI)

·  Pablo Lopez's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/ 110)

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