MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Tuesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. ATL - Charlie Morton (No. 13 out of 338)

2. LAD - Julio Urias (No. 30)

3. HOU - Lance McCullers Jr. (No. 35)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. BAL - Spenser Watkins (No. 335 out of 338)

2. CIN - Vladimir Gutierrez (No. 324)

3. PHI - Matt Moore (No. 315)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. DET at MIN - Dan Bellino (No. 10 out of 110)

2. CWS at KC - CB Bucknor (No. 20)

3. HOU at SEA - Hunter Wendelstedt (No. 35)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. TOR at BOS - Carlos Torres (No. 8 out of 110)

2. COL at LAA - Greg Gibson (No. 23)

3. WSH at PHI - Bill Welke (No. 35)

Today's Hottest Games

1. CWS at KC (92 degrees)

2. MIA at BAL (91 degrees)

3. DET at MIN (91 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. LAD at SF (65 degrees)

2. ARI at TEX (70 degrees)

3. NYY at TB (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Chicago Cubs

Projected: 6.09 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -110

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.99 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -120

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 5.90 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -125

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  San Francisco Giants

Projected: 3.69 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -120

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 3.71 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -100

·  Seattle Mariners

Projected: 3.71 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Blue Jays at Red Sox

Projected: 11.78 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.0 O -110

·  Reds at Cubs

Projected: 11.65 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -105

·  Marlins at Orioles

Projected: 10.30 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Yankees at Rays

Projected: 7.76 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115

·  Dodgers at Giants

Projected: 8.34 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -105

·  Athletics at Padres

Projected: 8.56 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -120

GAMES OF THE DAY

Philadelphia Phillies (50-49) vs. Washington Nationals (45-54)

O/U: 10.5 | PHI -125 | WSH + 105

Matt Moore (THE BAT's No. 315 SP) vs. Erick Fedde (THE BAT's No. 183 SP)

Bill Welke (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 35 in MLB)

Citizens Bank Park (No. 19 Runs | No. 4 HR | No. 12 K)

88 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)

7 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Erick Fedde has been throwing a fastball (20% increase) far less often in 2021 (2% usage) than he did in 2020 (22% usage)

·  Erick Fedde has been throwing a sinker (13% increase) far more often in 2021 (46% usage) than he did in 2020 (33% usage)

·  Erick Fedde's ability to keep the ball on the ground (52% GB% since 2019) should help him in Citizens Bank Park (No. 8 best HR park in MLB) today

·  Erick Fedde (52% GB% since 2019) projects to face three Ground ball hitters today, which should play to his advantage since Ground ball pitchers perform best against Ground ball hitters

·  The Phillies have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 5 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.310 wOBA going forward

·  The Phillies offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 2 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Jean Segura, Bryce Harper, Brad Miller, Odubel Herrera, Rhys Hoskins)

·  THE BAT X views the Nationals as the No. 5 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total OVER opened at 9.5 Runs (-115), but is now OVER 10.5 (-110) and is showing the most line movement on the slate today

·  The Phillies Moneyline has 66% of the cash and 52% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The most profitable market for the Washington Nationals has been their Game Total Under which is 59-36 generating + 19.65 Units (18% ROI)

·  This season the Phillies Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 52-46 resulting in + 2.10 Units (2% ROI)

·  Juan Soto's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 295/-515)

Baltimore Orioles (34-64) vs. Miami Marlins (43-57)

O/U: 9.5 | BAL + 125 | MIA -145

Spenser Watkins (THE BAT's No. 335 SP) vs. Sandy Alcantara (THE BAT's No. 43 SP)

Oriole Park at Camden Yards (No. 7 Runs | No. 7 HR | No. 24 K)

91 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

5 mph out to LF (No. 7 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Spenser Watkins is a fly ball pitcher (44% FB% since 2019) and Oriole Park at Camden Yards is the No. 3 most extreme park in baseball for boosting home runs

·  Sandy Alcantara's changeup usage (26% in 2021, 10% in 2020) has increased 16% this season

·  Oriole Park at Camden Yards is baseball's No. 3 best park for home runs, but Sandy Alcantara's ground ball-heavy skillset (49% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Sandy Alcantara's 3.23 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 3.77 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  The Marlins are the No. 4 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 22.4% according to THE BAT X

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The opening Moneyline for the Marlins was -130, but is now -145 after it steamed 15 cents

·  The Marlins Moneyline has 72% of the cash and 61% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The most profitable market for the Miami Marlins has been their Team Total Under which is 54-42 generating + 5.81 Units (5% ROI)

·  This season the Orioles Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 50-44 resulting in + 1.40 Units (1% ROI)

·  Sandy Alcantara's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/-105)

Minnesota Twins (43-58) vs. Detroit Tigers (47-55)

O/U: 9.0 | MIN -180 | DET + 160

Kenta Maeda (THE BAT's No. 50 SP) vs. Tyler Alexander (THE BAT's No. 286 SP)

Dan Bellino (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 10 in MLB)

Target Field (No. 15 Runs | No. 22 HR | No. 19 K)

91 degrees (No. 3 hottest today)

8 mph in from LF (No. 4 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Kenta Maeda (4.74 ERA) has been underperforming his 4.08 FIP by 0.67 points; quite unlucky indeed

·  Tyler Alexander may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 72 pitches

·  Tyler Alexander has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against eight opposite-handed hitters today

·  The Twins offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 4 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Max Kepler, Josh Donaldson, Miguel Sano)

·  The Tigers (27.1 K%, via THE BAT X) have the most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  According to THE BAT X, the Tigers and their 0.305 wOBA have been the No. 4 luckiest offense in 2021

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Tigers Moneyline has steamed 25 cents as it opened at + 185 and is now + 160

·  There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 9.5 Runs and is now 9.0 Runs

·  The Moneyline has 57% of the bet tickets on the Twins, but 54% of the cash is on the Tigers resulting in two-way action

·  This season the Twins Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 58-38 resulting in + 16.55 Units (15% ROI)

·  This season the Tigers Moneyline has been their most profitable market and is 47-55 resulting in + 8.50 Units (8% ROI)

·  Kenta Maeda's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+ 125/-165)

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