MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Tuesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. PHI - Aaron Nola (No. 13 out of 336)

2. COL - German Marquez (No. 18)

3. SD - Yu Darvish (No. 33)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. WSH - Paolo Espino (No. 327 out of 336)

2. STL - Johan Oviedo (No. 305)

3. NYM - Robert Stock (No. 264)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. LAA at OAK - Bill Miller (No. 3 out of 110)

2. TEX at DET - Adam Hamari (No. 6)

3. NYM at CIN - Vic Carapazza (No. 18)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. CHC at STL - Laz Diaz (No. 39 out of 110)

2. BOS at TOR - Chad Whitson (No. 43)

3. MIA at WSH - Tom Hallion (No. 49)

Today's Hottest Games

1. SEA at COL (92 degrees)

2. MIA at WSH (88 degrees)

3. NYM at CIN (86 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. LAA at OAK (64 degrees)

2. BOS at TOR (72 degrees)

3. BAL at TB (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 6.27 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -130

·  Cincinnati Reds

Projected: 5.81 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -105

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.80 runs

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Baltimore Orioles

Projected: 3.43 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 120

·  Kansas City Royals

Projected: 4.01 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -130

·  Tampa Bay Rays

Projected: 4.05 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -105

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Mariners at Rockies

Projected: 11.70 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.0 O -110

·  Red Sox at Blue Jays

Projected: 11.56 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.5 O -105

·  Mets at Reds

Projected: 10.86 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Orioles at Rays

Projected: 7.48 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115

·  Royals at Brewers

Projected: 8.46 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -120

·  Angels at Athletics

Projected: 8.57 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -120

GAMES OF THE DAY

Milwaukee Brewers (56-39) vs. Kansas City Royals (37-55)

O/U: 9 | MIL -165 | KC + 150

Brett Anderson (THE BAT's No. 198 SP) vs. Mike Minor (THE BAT's No. 103 SP)

American Family Field (No. 15 Runs | No. 9 HR | No. 6 K)

78 degrees (No. 8 coldest today)

12 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Brett Anderson's ability to keep the ball on the ground (56% GB% since 2019) should help him in American Family Field (10th-best HR park in MLB) today

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform better against Ground ball hitters, and Brett Anderson (56% GB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today

·  Mike Minor is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split

·  The Brewers (27.0 K%, via THE BAT X) have the most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Brewers have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 4 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.305 wOBA going forward

·  The Brewers have four players (Luis Urias, Keston Hiura, Avisail Garcia, Omar Narvaez) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Royals have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 6 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.301 wOBA going forward

·  The Royals offense is quite fast: They have the No. 3 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Michael A. Taylor, Whit Merrifield, Nicky Lopez, Hunter Dozier)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The opening Run Line for the Milwaukee Brewers was -1.5 (+ 130), but is now -1.5 (+ 110) after it steamed 20 cents

·  The Brewers Moneyline has 74% of the bet tickets and 75% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The Brewers Run Line has 73% of the bet tickets and 67% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  Christian Yelich's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 380/-780)

Detroit Tigers (44-51) vs. Texas Rangers (35-59)

O/U: 8.5 | DET -125 | TEX + 105

Tarik Skubal (THE BAT's No. 165 SP) vs. Dane Dunning (THE BAT's No. 52 SP)

Adam Hamari (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 6 in MLB)

Comerica Park (No. 21 Runs | No. 23 HR | No. 28 K)

84 degrees (No. 6 hottest today)

10 mph out to LF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Tarik Skubal's fastball (2208 rpm) has lost 214 rpm of spin this season relative to 2020

·  Tarik Skubal's fastball usage (47% in 2021, 61% in 2020) has decreased 14% this season

·  Tarik Skubal's fly ball nature (42% FB% since 2019) should play well in Comerica Park (No. 3 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Given that Fly ball pitchers are least effective against Ground ball hitters, Tarik Skubal (42% FB% since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with three Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Dane Dunning has been throwing a fastball (22% increase) far less often in 2021 (0% usage) than he did in 2020 (22% usage)

·  Dane Dunning is throwing a sinker 15% more often this season (54% usage) than he did last season (39% usage)

·  Dane Dunning (50% GB% since 2019) projects to face two Fly ball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Ground ball pitchers perform worst against Fly ball hitters

·  Despite a 3.38 FIP, Dane Dunning's unlucky ERA has been 0.84 points worse at 4.22

·  The Tigers (26.6 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 3 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  According to THE BAT X, the Tigers and their 0.304 wOBA have been the No. 5 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Rangers are the No. 5 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 26.1% according to THE BAT X

·  Texas boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Sprint Speed this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB (Eli White, Adolis Garcia, Charlie Culberson, Nick Solak)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The opening Moneyline for the Tigers was -110, but is now -125 after it steamed 15 cents

·  The Game Total opened at 9.0 Runs, but is now 8.5 Runs as there is line movement toward the UNDER

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 69% of the cash and 57% of the bet tickets is on the Tigers

·  Joey Gallo's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 250/-410)

Chicago White Sox (57-37) vs. Minnesota Twins (40-54)

O/U: 9.5 | CWS -145 | MIN + 125

Dallas Keuchel (THE BAT's No. 105 SP) vs. Bailey Ober (THE BAT's No. 72 SP)

Guaranteed Rate Field (No. 8 Runs | No. 3 HR | No. 8 K)

76 degrees (No. 6 coldest today)

11 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Dallas Keuchel's ground ball tendencies (57% GB% since 2019) ought to play well in homer-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field (No. 3 best HR park in baseball) today

·  Dallas Keuchel is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split

·  So far in 2021, Dallas Keuchel has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitcher, boasting a 4.25 ERA despite a 4.76 FIP

·  The Chicago White Sox's 26.1 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 4 most on today's slate of games

·  According to THE BAT X, the White Sox and their 0.329 wOBA have been the No. 2 luckiest offense in 2021

·  Minnesota boasts six active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 1 most in MLB (Alex Kirilloff, Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano, Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach, Josh Donaldson)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is reverse line movement on the Twins Moneyline as it has dropped from + 150 to + 125 despite only getting 35% of the cash

·  The Game Total has moved toward the OVER after the Total opened at 9.0 Runs and is now 9.5 Runs

·  The White Sox Moneyline has 86% of the bet tickets and 65% of the cash making it the most lopsided action on the slate

·  There is two-way action on the Run Line as 70% of the bet tickets are on the White Sox, but 91% of the cash is on the Twins

·  The OVER has 80% of the bet tickets and 56% of the cash resulting in a lopsided handle for the Game Total

·  Nelson Cruz's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 275/-470)

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

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