MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Tuesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. PHI - Zack Wheeler (No. 4 out of 340)

2. OAK - Sean Manaea (No. 16)

3. LAD - Walker Buehler (No. 17)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. DET - Wily Peralta (No. 330 out of 340)

2. STL - Jon Lester (No. 323)

3. ARI - Madison Bumgarner (No. 322)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. BAL at NYY - Phil Cuzzi (No. 5 out of 110)

2. PHI at WSH - Nestor Ceja (No. 17)

3. SF at ARI - Chris Guccione (No. 28)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. PIT at MIL - Alfonso Marquez (No. 1 out of 110)

2. LAA at TEX - Nic Lentz (No. 11)

3. NYM at MIA - Stu Scheurwater (No. 12)

Today's Hottest Games

1. HOU at LAD (82 degrees)

2. MIN at CIN (80 degrees)

3. CHC at COL (80 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. SD at OAK (62 degrees)

2. LAA at TEX (70 degrees)

3. CLE at TOR (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 6.21 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -125

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 5.70 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 105

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 5.58 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -125

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Washington Nationals

Projected: 3.13 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.48 runs

·  San Diego Padres

Projected: 3.77 runs

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Cubs at Rockies

Projected: 10.82 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.5 O + 100

·  Orioles at Yankees

Projected: 10.53 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -105

·  Red Sox at Tigers

Projected: 10.07 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Phillies at Nationals

Projected: 7.54 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -115

·  Mets at Marlins

Projected: 7.84 runs

·  Padres at Athletics

Projected: 7.98 runs

GAMES OF THE DAY

New York Yankees (56-49) vs. Baltimore Orioles (38-67)

O/U: 10.0 | NYY -255 | BAL + 215

Nestor Cortes (THE BAT's No. 132 SP) vs. Alex Wells (THE BAT's No. 245 SP)

Phil Cuzzi (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 5 in MLB)

Yankee Stadium (No. 9 Runs | No. 2 HR | No. 15 K)

76 degrees (No. 8 coldest today)

6 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Nestor Cortes is a fly ball pitcher (39% FB% since 2019) and Yankee Stadium is the No. 2 most extreme park in baseball for boosting home runs

·  Nestor Cortes (39% FB% since 2019) projects to face two Fly ball hitters today, which should play to his advantage since Fly ball pitchers perform best against Fly ball hitters

·  Nestor Cortes' 1.93 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 4.39 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  The Yankees' 0.313 team wOBA makes them the No. 1 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  New York boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB (Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Joey Gallo, Gary Sanchez)

·  The Orioles have four players (Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander, Trey Mancini, Pedro Severino) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total OVER opened at 9.0 Runs (+ 100), but is now OVER 10.0 (-105) and is showing the most line movement on the slate today

·  The opening Moneyline for the Orioles was + 250, but is now + 215 after it steamed 35 cents

·  The most profitable market for the New York Yankees has been their Team Total Under which is 62-40 generating + 19.23 Units (17% ROI)

·  Aaron Judge's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 205/-310) is the most popular prop for the game

Arizona Diamondbacks (33-74) vs. San Francisco Giants (67-39)

O/U: 9.5 | ARI + 155 | SF -170

Madison Bumgarner (THE BAT's No. 322 SP) vs. Johnny Cueto (THE BAT's No. 166 SP)

Chris Guccione (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 28 in MLB)

Chase Field (No. 10 Runs | No. 25 HR | No. 26 K)

78 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Madison Bumgarner (90.2 mph) has added 2.4 mph to his fastball velocity this season

·  Madison Bumgarner's skillset (39% FB% since 2019) ought to play well in Chase Field (No. 2 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Fly ball pitchers tend to perform worse against Ground ball hitters, and Madison Bumgarner (39% FB% since 2019) is projected to face three of them today

·  Johnny Cueto's slider usage (23% in 2021, 8% in 2020) has increased 15% this season

·  Johnny Cueto's curveball usage (2% in 2021, 21% in 2020) has decreased 19% this season

·  Johnny Cueto's 3.84 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 4.54 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  THE BAT X views the Giants as the No. 2 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Giants offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 4 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Brandon Crawford, Wilmer Flores, Steven Duggar)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The opening Run Line for the San Francisco Giants was -1.5 (-105), but is now -1.5 (-115) after it steamed 10 cents

·  There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 74% of the cash and 61% of the bet tickets is on the Giants

·  This season the Giants Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 67-39 resulting in + 33.65 Units (26% ROI)

·  The Arizona Diamondbacks Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 59-47 resulting in + 7.75 Units (7% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Johnny Cueto's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-170/+ 125)

Los Angeles Dodgers (64-43) vs. Houston Astros (64-42)

O/U: 8.5 | LAD -170 | HOU + 155

Walker Buehler (THE BAT's No. 17 SP) vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (THE BAT's No. 32 SP)

Dodger Stadium (No. 11 Runs | No. 8 HR | No. 22 K)

82 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

6 mph out to CF (No. 3 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Walker Buehler's fastball velocity (94.8 mph) has been down 1.7 mph from where it was in 2020 so far this season

·  Lance McCullers Jr. has been throwing a slider (28% increase) far more often in 2021 (28% usage) than he did in 2020 (0% usage)

·  Lance McCullers Jr. has been throwing a curveball (18% increase) far less often in 2021 (20% usage) than he did in 2020 (38% usage)

·  Lance McCullers Jr.'s ground ball tendencies (56% GB% since 2019) ought to play well in homer-friendly Dodger Stadium (No. 5 best HR park in baseball) today

·  Given that Ground ball pitchers are least effective against Fly ball hitters, Lance McCullers Jr. (56% GB% since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with four Fly ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Lance McCullers Jr. and his 3.23 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 3.74 thus far in 2021

·  THE BAT X projects the Dodgers (No. 2 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.328 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  The Dodgers offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 1 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Will Smith, Justin Turner, Albert Pujols, Chris Taylor)

·  The Astros (21.4 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 4 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  THE BAT X views the Astros as the No. 5 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Astros have five players (Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa) with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total opened at 8.0 Runs, but is now 8.5 Runs as there is line movement toward the OVER

·  The opening Moneyline for the Dodgers was -155, but is now -170 after it steamed 15 cents

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 75% of the cash and 54% of the bet tickets on the Dodgers

·  The OVER has 65% of the bet tickets and 59% of the cash resulting in a lopsided handle for the Game Total

·  This season the Astros Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 61-44 resulting in + 13.30 Units (11% ROI)

·  Walker Buehler's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+ 110/-145) is the most popular prop for the game

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