MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Tuesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

USATSI_16216522

This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Corbin Burnes (No. 2 out of 338)

2. ATL - Charlie Morton (No. 13)

3. COL - German Marquez (No. 24)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. BAL - Spenser Watkins (No. 336 out of 338)

2. CLE - Eli Morgan (No. 243)

3. MIN - Griffin Jax (No. 221)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. CWS at TOR - Mark Carlson (No. 23 out of 111)

2. KC at HOU - Jim Reynolds (No. 25)

3. COL at CHC - Manny Gonzalez (No. 42)

Today's Hottest Games

1. LAA at BAL (88 degrees)

2. DET at STL (88 degrees)

3. COL at CHC (87 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. SEA at OAK (64 degrees)

2. LAD at SD (72 degrees)

3. KC at HOU (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 6.17 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -125

·  Los Angeles Angels

Projected: 6.06 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -105

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 5.15 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Detroit Tigers

Projected: 2.95 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -145

·  Cincinnati Reds

Projected: 3.22 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -140

·  Washington Nationals

Projected: 3.46 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 115

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Twins at Red Sox

Projected: 11.16 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -105

·  Angels at Orioles

Projected: 10.97 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -115

·  Rangers at Indians

Projected: 9.41 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Nationals at Marlins

Projected: 7.07 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -110

·  Tigers at Cardinals

Projected: 7.33 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -105

·  Reds at Brewers

Projected: 7.63 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -105

GAMES OF THE DAY

Philadelphia Phillies (63-61) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (77-48)

O/U: 9.0 | PHI + 105 | TB -125

Ranger Suarez (THE BAT's No. 82 SP) vs. Drew Rasmussen (THE BAT's No. 84 SP)

Citizens Bank Park (No. 20 Runs | No. 4 HR | No. 12 K)

85 degrees (No. 8 coldest today)

5 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Ranger Suarez's ground ball tendencies (60% GB% since 2019) ought to play well in homer-friendly Citizens Bank Park (No. 8 best HR park in baseball) today

·  Ranger Suarez has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 1.47 ERA is 2.04 points below his 3.51 FIP

·  Drew Rasmussen may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 70 pitches

·  The Phillies are the No. 4 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 21.6% according to THE BAT X

·  The Phillies have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 3 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.311 wOBA going forward

·  The Phillies have three players (Brad Miller, Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 7 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Rays have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Mike Zunino, Brandon Lowe, Drew Rasmussen)

·  The Rays have four players (Mike Zunino, Ji-Man Choi, Brett Phillips, Brandon Lowe) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline opening price of -110 has steamed 15 cents and is now -125

·  There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 9.5 Runs and is now 9.0 Runs

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 72% of the cash and 51% of the bet tickets is on the Rays

·  This season the Rays Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 73-52 resulting in + 18.35 Units (11% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Bryce Harper's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 320/-585)

Miami Marlins (51-74) vs. Washington Nationals (53-70)

O/U: 8.5 | MIA -115 | WSH -105

Jesus Luzardo (THE BAT's No. 175 SP) vs. Erick Fedde (THE BAT's No. 165 SP)

Marlins Park (No. 28 Runs | No. 29 HR | No. 16 K)

72 degrees (No. 4 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Jesus Luzardo has been throwing a fastball (17% increase) far more often in 2021 (36% usage) than he did in 2020 (19% usage)

·  Jesus Luzardo has been throwing a sinker (14% increase) far less often in 2021 (21% usage) than he did in 2020 (35% usage)

·  Erick Fedde has been throwing a fastball (21% increase) far less often in 2021 (1% usage) than he did in 2020 (22% usage)

·  Erick Fedde has been throwing a sinker (14% increase) far more often in 2021 (47% usage) than he did in 2020 (33% usage)

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform worse against Fly ball hitters, and Erick Fedde (52% GB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today

·  The Marlins are the No. 3 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 27.1% according to THE BAT X

·  The Marlins have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Jazz Chisholm, Jesus Luzardo, Alex Jackson)

·  According to THE BAT X, the Marlins and their 0.296 wOBA have been the No. 2 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Nationals (0.324 wOBA) have been the No. 1 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The opening Moneyline for the Marlins was -105, but is now -115 after it steamed 10 cents

·  The Game Total has lopsided action today with 76% of the bet tickets and 80% of the cash on the OVER

·  This season the Nationals Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 66-53 resulting in + 8.35 Units (6% ROI)

·  The Miami Marlins Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 65-56 resulting in + 1.19 Units (1% ROI)

Chicago Cubs (55-72) vs. Colorado Rockies (57-68)

O/U: 9.0 | CHC + 115 | COL -135

Justin Steele (THE BAT's No. 152 SP) vs. German Marquez (THE BAT's No. 24 SP)

Manny Gonzalez (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 42 in MLB)

Wrigley Field (No. 8 Runs | No. 17 HR | No. 20 K)

87 degrees (No. 3 hottest today)

8 mph out to LF (No. 1 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Justin Steele may be limited today, with THE BAT projecting a maximum pitch count of roughly 85 pitches

·  Justin Steele is projected to face seven opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split

·  Justin Steele has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 3.22 ERA is 2.21 points below his 5.44 FIP

·  German Marquez's fastball velocity (94.3 mph) has been down 1.0 mph from where it was in 2020 so far this season

·  German Marquez has been throwing a slider (11% increase) far more often in 2021 (28% usage) than he did in 2020 (17% usage)

·  German Marquez (51% GB% since 2019) projects to face two Ground ball hitters today, which should play to his advantage since Ground ball pitchers perform best against Ground ball hitters

·  The Cubs (26.9 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 4 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Cubs have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Justin Steele, Austin Romine, Patrick Wisdom)

·  THE BAT X views the Cubs as the No. 3 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total opened at 8.5 Runs, but is now 9.0 Runs as there is line movement toward the OVER

·  There is reverse line movement as only 34% of the cash is on the Chicago Cubs, but their Moneyline has dropped from + 125 to + 115

·  The Chicago Cubs Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 72-50 resulting in + 14.19 Units (10% ROI)

·  This season the Rockies Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 68-55 resulting in + 6.55 Units (5% ROI)

·  German Marquez's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 6.0 Strikeouts (-120/-110)

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