MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Tuesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Corbin Burnes (No. 2 out of 340)

2. COL - German Marquez (No. 19)

3. HOU - Framber Valdez (No. 36)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. CIN - Vladimir Gutierrez (No. 302 out of 340)

2. PIT - Wil Crowe (No. 300)

3. CLE - Eli Morgan (No. 261)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. ATL at MIA - Roberto Ortiz (No. 10 out of 111)

2. CLE at MIN - Jim Wolf (No. 16)

3. BAL at TB - Brian Gorman (No. 23)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. OAK at CWS - Nic Lentz (No. 11 out of 111)

2. HOU at KC - Gerry Davis (No. 14)

3. CHC at CIN - Jordan Baker (No. 29)

Today's Hottest Games

1. CLE at MIN (89 degrees)

2. SD at COL (87 degrees)

3. HOU at KC (84 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. NYM at SF (60 degrees)

2. SEA at TEX (70 degrees)

3. BAL at TB (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  San Diego Padres

Projected: 6.44 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -125

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 6.32 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -130

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 6.25 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  St. Louis Cardinals

Projected: 3.42 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -140

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.58 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -105

·  Baltimore Orioles

Projected: 3.69 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 115

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Padres at Rockies

Projected: 12.75 runs | Vegas O/U: 12.5 O -105

·  Indians at Twins

Projected: 10.47 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -115

·  Athletics at White Sox

Projected: 10.29 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Braves at Marlins

Projected: 7.46 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115

·  Brewers at Cardinals

Projected: 7.81 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -115

·  Red Sox at Yankees

Projected: 8.06 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -115

GAMES OF THE DAY

Tampa Bay Rays (72-47) vs. Baltimore Orioles (38-79)

O/U: 8.5 | TB -235 | BAL + 195

Drew Rasmussen (THE BAT's No. 68 SP) vs. John Means (THE BAT's No. 92 SP)

Brian Gorman (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 23 in MLB)

Tropicana Field (No. 30 Runs | No. 19 HR | No. 3 K)

72 degrees (No. 3 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Drew Rasmussen may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 60 pitches

·  Drew Rasmussen has been quite unlucky this season, posting a 3.98 ERA despite a 3.36 FIP

·  John Means (92.1 mph) has lost 1.3 mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  John Means' fly ball nature (43% FB% since 2019) should play well in Tropicana Field (No. 9 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  John Means (43% FB% since 2019) projects to face three Fly ball hitters today, which should play to his advantage since Fly ball pitchers perform best against Fly ball hitters

·  The Rays (21.7 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 4 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Rays offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 4 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Brandon Lowe, Ji-Man Choi, Mike Zunino, Nelson Cruz)

·  The Orioles have four players (Anthony Santander, Pedro Severino, Maikel Franco, Trey Mancini) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline is showing the most line movement today as it opened at -180 before dropping to -235

·  There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 89% of the bet tickets and 73% of the cash is on the Rays

·  The Rays Moneyline has 79% of the bet tickets and 73% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The Tampa Bay Rays Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 68-51 resulting in + 14.10 Units (9% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Baltimore Orioles has been their Team Total Under which is 61-52 generating + 3.04 Units (2% ROI)

·  Drew Rasmussen's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)

Chicago White Sox (69-50) vs. Oakland Athletics (68-51)

O/U: 8.5 | CWS -105 | OAK -115

Reynaldo Lopez (THE BAT's No. 168 SP) vs. Chris Bassitt (THE BAT's No. 58 SP)

Nic Lentz (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 11 in MLB)

Guaranteed Rate Field (No. 7 Runs | No. 3 HR | No. 8 K)

77 degrees (No. 6 coldest today)

7 mph in from LF (No. 4 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Reynaldo Lopez may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 82 pitches

·  The spin rate on Reynaldo Lopez's fastball (2228 rpm) has increased by nearly 100 rpm in 2021

·  Reynaldo Lopez may be especially susceptible to the long-ball today pitching in the No. 3 best home run park in baseball (Guaranteed Rate Field) given his fly ball tendencies (38% FB% since 2019)

·  Given that Fly ball pitchers are most effective against Fly ball hitters, Reynaldo Lopez (38% FB% since 2019) is well-situated today with three Fly ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Chris Bassitt's 3.06 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 4.03 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  According to THE BAT X, the Athletics and their 0.315 wOBA have been the No. 7 luckiest offense in 2021

·  Oakland boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB (Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Seth Brown, Sean Murphy)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has moved toward the UNDER after the Total opened at 9.0 Runs and is now 8.5 Runs

·  The OVER has 83% of the bet tickets and 70% of the cash resulting in a lopsided handle for the Game Total

·  The Moneyline has two-way action as 57% of the bet tickets are on the Athletics, but 60% of the cash is on the White Sox

·  The most profitable market for the Chicago White Sox has been their Run Line which is 60-58 generating + 6.55 Units (5% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Oakland Athletics has been their Run Line which is 62-57 generating + 6.05 Units (4% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Chris Bassitt's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+ 110)

Colorado Rockies (53-66) vs. San Diego Padres (67-54)

O/U: 12.5 | COL -110 | SD -110

German Marquez (THE BAT's No. 19 SP) vs. (THE BAT's No. SP)

Coors Field (No. 1 Runs | No. 11 HR | No. 30 K)

87 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

12 mph out to CF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  German Marquez (94.4 mph) has lost nearly a full mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  German Marquez's slider usage (28% in 2021, 17% in 2020) has increased 11% this season

·  Given that Ground ball pitchers are most effective against Ground ball hitters, German Marquez (51% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with four Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Matt Strahm is projected to face eight opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split

·  The Rockies are the No. 5 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 22.3% according to THE BAT X

·  The Rockies have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 3 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.312 wOBA going forward

·  Colorado boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Sprint Speed this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB (Trevor Story, Garrett Hampson, Yonathan Daza)

·  The Padres offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 1 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Eric Hosmer, Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-seong Kim, Tommy Pham, Victor Caratini, Manny Machado)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Padres Moneyline has steamed 15 cents as it opened at + 105 and is now -110

·  The Game Total has moved toward the OVER after the Total opened at 12.0 Runs and is now 12.5 Runs

·  This season the Padres Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 65-53 resulting in + 7.40 Units (6% ROI)

·  This season the Rockies Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 65-52 resulting in + 6.90 Units (5% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Fernando Tatis Jr.'s Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 175/-250)

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

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