MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Tuesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

USATSI_15941601

This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. LAD - Max Scherzer (No. 6 out of 333)

2. PHI - Aaron Nola (No. 11)

3. OAK - Sean Manaea (No. 14)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. WSH - Paolo Espino (No. 319 out of 333)

2. MIA - Braxton Garrett (No. 278)

3. STL - J.A. Happ (No. 240)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. NYY at KC - Bill Miller (No. 3 out of 111)

2. MIA at SD - Ben May (No. 17)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. CWS at MIN - Jeff Nelson (No. 22 out of 111)

Today's Hottest Games

1. NYY at KC (91 degrees)

2. MIL at CHC (87 degrees)

3. CWS at MIN (87 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. ARI at SF (61 degrees)

2. MIA at SD (71 degrees)

3. COL at HOU (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Milwaukee Brewers

Projected: 5.66 runs

·  Chicago White Sox

Projected: 5.65 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -115

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 5.42 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 2.91 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 125

·  Chicago Cubs

Projected: 3.15 runs

·  Los Angeles Angels

Projected: 3.24 runs

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  White Sox at Twins

Projected: 10.27 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -110

·  Brewers at Cubs

Projected: 10.09 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -110

·  Reds at Braves

Projected: 9.92 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Marlins at Padres

Projected: 7.10 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O + 100

·  Angels at Blue Jays

Projected: 7.20 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -120

·  Rangers at Mariners

Projected: 7.47 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -105

GAMES OF THE DAY

Chicago Cubs (52-61) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (66-46)

O/U: 8.5 | CHC + 120 | MIL -140

Justin Steele (THE BAT's No. 132 SP) vs. Freddy Peralta (THE BAT's No. 15 SP)

Wrigley Field (No. 5 Runs | No. 17 HR | No. 20 K)

87 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

9 mph out to CF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Justin Steele may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 83 pitches

·  This season, Alec Mills' fastball (88.6 mph) has been nearly a full mph slower than it was in 2020

·  Alec Mills is throwing a fastball 14% less often this season (12% usage) than he did last season (26% usage)

·  Alec Mills has been throwing a sinker (16% increase) far more often in 2021 (49% usage) than he did in 2020 (33% usage)

·  Freddy Peralta may be especially susceptible to the long-ball today pitching in the No. 10 best home run park in baseball (Wrigley Field) given his fly ball tendencies (42% FB% since 2019)

·  Fly ball pitchers tend to perform worse against Ground ball hitters, and Freddy Peralta (42% FB% since 2019) is projected to face four of them today

·  While THE BAT projects Freddy Peralta's ERA going forward to be 3.29, his actual has been 2.21 ERA, indicating some regression may be in order

·  The Cubs are the No. 4 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 26.0% according to THE BAT X

·  The Cubs (0.303 wOBA) have been the No. 4 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  The Brewers' 0.306 team wOBA makes them the No. 3 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  Milwaukee boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Sprint Speed this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB (Willy Adames, Avisail Garcia, Tyrone Taylor, Christian Yelich)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has lopsided action today with 69% of the bet tickets and 79% of the cash on the UNDER

·  The Chicago Cubs Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 66-44 resulting in + 15.57 Units (12% ROI)

·  The Milwaukee Brewers Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 61-51 resulting in + 12.75 Units (9% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Freddy Peralta's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)

Baltimore Orioles (38-72) vs. Detroit Tigers (54-60)

O/U: 10.0 | BAL + 100 | DET -120

Keegan Akin (THE BAT's No. 239 SP) vs. Casey Mize (THE BAT's No. 170 SP)

Oriole Park at Camden Yards (No. 4 Runs | No. 7 HR | No. 24 K)

87 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)

10 mph out to LF (No. 5 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Keegan Akin may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 55 pitches

·  As an extreme fly ball pitcher (35% FB% since 2019), Keegan Akin may not be a great fit for the No. 2 HR in baseball, Oriole Park at Camden Yards, today

·  Keegan Akin has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against nine opposite-handed hitters today

·  Casey Mize's ground ball tendencies (48% GB% since 2019) ought to play well in homer-friendly Oriole Park at Camden Yards (No. 2 best HR park in baseball) today

·  Casey Mize (48% GB% since 2019) projects to face two Ground ball hitters today, which should play to his advantage since Ground ball pitchers perform best against Ground ball hitters

·  Casey Mize's 3.57 ERA is 1.27 points better than his 4.84 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  According to THE BAT X, the Tigers and their 0.306 wOBA have been the No. 5 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Tigers offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 4 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Eric Haase, Willi Castro, Jonathan Schoop, Miguel Cabrera)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 10.5 Runs and is now 10.0 Runs

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 65% of the bet tickets and 87% of the cash is on the Tigers

·  There is lopsided action on the Game Total as 69% of the bet tickets and 76% of the cash is on the OVER

·  This season the Tigers Moneyline has been their most profitable market and is 54-60 resulting in + 11.30 Units (9% ROI)

·  The Baltimore Orioles Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 57-49 resulting in + 2.95 Units (2% ROI)

·  Casey Mize's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+ 130/-165)

New York Mets (56-55) vs. Washington Nationals (50-62)

O/U: 8.5 | NYM -230 | WSH + 190

Carlos Carrasco (THE BAT's No. 117 SP) vs. Paolo Espino (THE BAT's No. 319 SP)

Citi Field (No. 30 Runs | No. 15 HR | No. 4 K)

79 degrees (No. 7 coldest today)

10 mph out to LF (No. 6 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Carlos Carrasco may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 77 pitches

·  The spin on Carlos Carrasco's fastball (2169 rpm) has been 301 rpm less than it was in 2020

·  Carlos Carrasco is throwing a fastball 12% less often this season (23% usage) than he did last season (35% usage)

·  Carlos Carrasco has been throwing a sinker (22% increase) far more often in 2021 (27% usage) than he did in 2020 (5% usage)

·  Carlos Carrasco is throwing a changeup 10% less often this season (18% usage) than he did last season (28% usage)

·  Carlos Carrasco and his 3.24 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 4.10 thus far in 2021

·  Paolo Espino (38% FB% since 2019) projects to face two Ground ball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Fly ball pitchers perform worst against Ground ball hitters

·  THE BAT X views the Nationals as the No. 1 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Mets Run Line opening price of -1.5 (+ 100) has steamed 10 cents and is now -1.5 (-110)

·  The OVER has 85% of the bet tickets and 59% of the cash resulting in a lopsided handle for the Game Total

·  The most profitable market for the Washington Nationals has been their Game Total Under which is 63-45 generating + 13.85 Units (11% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the New York Mets has been their Game Total Under which is 60-44 generating + 11.05 Units (9% ROI)

back to news

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

The Lombardi Line: Bookmakers love parleys, when playing them, you want a mix of favorites and underdogs.

Pro Football Blitz: When you back teams on the raod you want a good running team, when you back teams at home you want a good passing team. With teams on the road usually the underdog, you want a team that can control time of possession like the Tennessee Titans.

 

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Shaun King: Eagles -6.5 vs Jaguars

Brendan Gaughan: Brad Keselowski Top 3 +600

View new sortable Picks at a Glance page for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Screen_Shot_2022-09-30_at_6.23.35_PM

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

Close