MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Tuesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. PHI - Zack Wheeler (No. 5 out of 348)

2. MIL - Brandon Woodruff (No. 6)

3. BOS - Chris Sale (No. 8)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. DET - Tyler Alexander (No. 323 out of 348)

2. BAL - Bruce Zimmermann (No. 248)

3. LAA - Packy Naughton (No. 239)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. WSH at COL - Ben May (No. 10 out of 111)

2. OAK at SEA - Adam Hamari (No. 11)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. CLE at KC - David Rackley (No. 25 out of 111)

Today's Hottest Games

1. MIL at STL (82 degrees)

2. CLE at KC (82 degrees)

3. PHI at ATL (77 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. OAK at SEA (57 degrees)

2. NYY at TOR (58 degrees)

3. ARI at SF (60 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 6.61 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -120

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 5.86 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -130

·  Minnesota Twins

Projected: 5.70 runs

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 2.40 runs

·  New York Mets

Projected: 2.75 runs

·  St. Louis Cardinals

Projected: 3.39 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 110

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Nationals at Rockies

Projected: 11.14 runs | Vegas O/U: 12.0 O -105

·  Red Sox at Orioles

Projected: 10.50 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O + 100

·  Rays at Astros

Projected: 10.14 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Marlins at Mets

Projected: 5.15 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -105

·  Brewers at Cardinals

Projected: 7.44 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -120

·  Athletics at Mariners

Projected: 8.03 runs

GAMES OF THE DAY

Baltimore Orioles (50-106) vs. Boston Red Sox (88-68)

O/U: 9.5 | BAL + 215 | BOS -255

Bruce Zimmermann (THE BAT's No. 248 SP) vs. Chris Sale (THE BAT's No. 8 SP)

Oriole Park at Camden Yards (No. 4 Runs | No. 7 HR | No. 24 K)

75 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)

6 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Bruce Zimmermann may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 65 pitches

·  Bruce Zimmermann has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against seven opposite-handed hitters today

·  Chris Sale has a huge platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against eight opposite-handed hitters today

·  So far in 2021, Chris Sale has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitchers, boasting a 2.57 ERA despite a 3.86 FIP

·  The Orioles (0.306 wOBA) have been the No. 6 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  Baltimore boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Max Exit Velocity percent this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB (Anthony Santander, Trey Mancini, Pedro Severino, Ryan Mountcastle)

·  The Red Sox have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 1 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.333 wOBA going forward

·  The Red Sox have five players (J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers, Hunter Renfroe, Bobby Dalbec, Kyle Schwarber) with a Barrel percent in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Run Line has lopsided action today with 68 percent of the bet tickets and 98 percent of the cash on the Red Sox

·  The Red Sox Moneyline has 82 percent of the cash and 62 percent of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The Boston Red Sox Moneyline has been their most profitable market this season and is 86-63 resulting in + 10.30 Units (5 percent ROI)

·  The Baltimore Orioles Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 82-68 resulting in + 5.88 Units (3 percent ROI)

·  Chris Sale's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+ 100/-130)

Toronto Blue Jays (87-69) vs. New York Yankees (89-67)

O/U: 9.0 | TOR -125 | NYY + 105

Hyun-Jin Ryu (THE BAT's No. 40 SP) vs. Jameson Taillon (THE BAT's No. 67 SP)

Rogers Centre

58 degrees (No. 2 coldest today)

5 mph in from CF (No. 8 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Hyun Jin Ryu is throwing a fastball 11 percent more often this season (34 percent usage) than he did last season (23 percent usage)

·  THE BAT's 3.76 projected ERA for Hyun Jin Ryu is quite a bit better than his 4.34 ERA this season

·  Jameson Taillon may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 66 pitches

·  The Blue Jays are the least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K percentage of 20.5 percent according to THE BAT X

·  The Blue Jays offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 1 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Teoscar Hernandez, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Randal Grichuk)

·  THE BAT X projects the Yankees (No. 7 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.319 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  The Yankees have four players (Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, Joey Gallo, Giancarlo Stanton) with a Barrel percent in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is two-way action on the Game Total as 65 percent of the bet tickets are on the UNDER, but 48 percent of the cash is on the OVER

·  The most profitable market for the New York Yankees has been their Game Total Under which is 84-63 generating + 15.55 Units (9 percent ROI)

·  This season the Blue Jays Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 81-65 resulting in + 10.40 Units (6 percent ROI)

·  Jameson Taillon's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+ 110) is the most popular prop for the game

Houston Astros (91-65) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (97-59)

O/U: 9.0 | HOU -140 | TB + 120

Jose Urquidy (THE BAT's No. 102 SP) vs. Michael Wacha (THE BAT's No. 144 SP)

Minute Maid Park (No. 23 Runs | No. 14 HR | No. 2 K)

72 degrees (No. 8 hottest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Jose Urquidy's large reverse platoon split makes him especially effective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face six of them today

·  Jose Urquidy and his 3.56 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 4.22 thus far in 2021

·  Michael Wacha's large reverse platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face seven of them today

·  The Houston Astros' 20.5 projected K percentage (via THE BAT) is the No. 2 least on today's slate of games

·  According to THE BAT X, the Astros and their 0.336 wOBA have been the No. 3 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Rays offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 4 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Austin Meadows, Mike Zunino, Brandon Lowe)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Astros Moneyline has 66 percent of the bet tickets and 62 percent of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The most profitable market for the Tampa Bay Rays has been their Run Line which is 87-63 generating + 20.35 Units (10 percent ROI)

·  The Houston Astros Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 80-64 resulting in + 9.80 Units (6 percent ROI)

·  Nelson Cruz's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 245/-395) is the most popular prop for the game

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