MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Tuesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Brandon Woodruff (No. 3 out of 332)

2. ATL - Charlie Morton (No. 12)

3. SF - Kevin Gausman (No. 20)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. PIT - Chase De Jong (No. 327 out of 332)

2. DET - Jose Urena (No. 308)

3. TEX - Mike Foltynewicz (No. 270)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. CHC at MIL - Ben May (No. 8 out of 110)

2. ARI at STL - Roberto Ortiz (No. 10)

3. PIT at COL - Cory Blaser (No. 28)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. SF at LAD - Stu Scheurwater (No. 13 out of 110)

2. DET at CLE - Laz Diaz (No. 37)

3. KC at BOS - Jim Reynolds (No. 43)

Today's Hottest Games

1. SD at CIN (91 degrees)

2. MIA at PHI (91 degrees)

3. LAA at NYY (90 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. TEX at OAK (62 degrees)

2. BAL at HOU (72 degrees)

3. SF at LAD (74 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 6.15 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -130

·  San Diego Padres

Projected: 6.04 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -100

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 6.00 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Chicago Cubs

Projected: 3.42 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -125

·  Texas Rangers

Projected: 3.84 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -105

·  San Francisco Giants

Projected: 3.85 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 110

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Royals at Red Sox

Projected: 11.32 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -115

·  Padres at Reds

Projected: 10.99 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -110

·  Pirates at Rockies

Projected: 10.83 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.0 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Cubs at Brewers

Projected: 7.95 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -105

·  Rangers at Athletics

Projected: 8.33 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -115

·  D-Backs at Cardinals

Projected: 8.38 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -115

GAMES OF THE DAY

Toronto Blue Jays (40-36) vs. Seattle Mariners (41-38)

O/U: 9.5 | TOR -240 | SEA + 200

Robbie Ray (THE BAT's No. 109 SP) vs. Chris Flexen (THE BAT's No. 170 SP)

Sahlen Field

80 degrees (No. 8 coldest today)

7 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Robbie Ray (94.6 mph) has added 1.1 mph to his fastball velocity this season

·  The spin on Robbie Ray's fastball (2275 rpm) has been 145 rpm less than it was in 2020

·  Chris Flexen has a large reverse platoon split, making him less effective against same-handed hitters, which he's projected to face six of today

·  Chris Flexen's 3.87 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 4.45 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  The Blue Jays (22.2 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 3 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Blue Jays offense knows how to hit the ball hard: They have the No. 4 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Randal Grichuk, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez)

·  The Mariners offense knows how to barrel a baseball: They have the No. 5 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Kyle Seager, Dylan Moore, Tom Murphy)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most line movement today is the Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline as it opened at -170 before dropping to -240

·  The Game Total opened at 10.0 Runs, but is now 9.5 Runs as there is line movement toward the UNDER

·  The Blue Jays Run Line has 65% of the cash and 61% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 65% of the cash and 60% of the bet tickets on the Blue Jays

·  The most profitable market for the Seattle Mariners has been their Moneyline which is 41-38 generating + 13.15 Units (16% ROI)

·  This season the Blue Jays Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 42-34 resulting in + 2.50 Units (2% ROI)

Houston Astros (48-31) vs. Baltimore Orioles (25-54)

O/U: 10 | HOU -310 | BAL + 270

Jose Urquidy (THE BAT's No. 108 SP) vs. Alex Wells (THE BAT's No. 230 SP)

Minute Maid Park (No. 23 Runs | No. 14 HR | No. 2 K)

72 degrees (No. 2 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Given that fly ball pitchers are most effective against ground ball hitters, Jose Urquidy (39% FB% since 2019) is well-situated today with two ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Jose Urquidy is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his disadvantage given his large reverse platoon split

·  So far in 2021, Alexander Wells has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitcher, boasting a 0.00 ERA despite a 6.20 FIP

·  The Astros are the least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 19.9% according to THE BAT X

·  According to THE BAT X, the Astros and their 0.345 wOBA have been the No. 2 luckiest offense in 2021

·  Houston boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB (Yordan Alvarez, Myles Straw, Kyle Tucker)

·  The Orioles (22.8 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 4 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  Baltimore boasts five active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Max Exit Velocity% this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB (Maikel Franco, Trey Mancini, Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle, Pedro Severino)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Houston Astros Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 47-31 resulting in + 13.25 Units (15% ROI)

·  This season the Orioles Team Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 41-34 resulting in + 3.16 Units (4% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals (38-41) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (22-58)

O/U: 9 | STL -160 | ARI + 140

Carlos Martinez (THE BAT's No. 162 SP) vs. Caleb Smith (THE BAT's No. 190 SP)

Roberto Ortiz (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 10 in MLB)

Busch Stadium (No. 25 Runs | No. 24 HR | No. 27 K)

84 degrees (No. 6 hottest today)

5 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Caleb Smith's skillset (48% FB% since 2019) ought to play well in Busch Stadium (No. 7 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Caleb Smith (48% FB% since 2019) projects to face three Ground ball hitters today, which should play to his advantage since Fly ball pitchers perform best against Ground ball hitters

·  Caleb Smith's 3.03 ERA is 0.99 points better than his 4.03 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  The Cardinals have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 1 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.292 wOBA going forward

·  St. Louis boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB (Matt Carpenter, Nolan Arenado, Dylan Carlson)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the OVER after the Game Total opened at 8.5 Runs and is now 9.0 Runs

·  The St. Louis Cardinals Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 41-32 resulting in + 5.55 Units (6% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Arizona Diamondbacks has been their Game Total Over which is 43-36 generating + 3.25 Units (4% ROI)

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

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