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MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Thursday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

USATSI_15961591

This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

 

 

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. LAD - Trevor Bauer (No. 12 out of 300)

2. PHI - Aaron Nola (No. 13)

3. CWS - Carlos Rodon (No. 48)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. BAL - Jorge Lopez (No. 238 out of 300)

2. SEA - Yusei Kikuchi (No. 202)

3. BOS - Martin Perez (No. 201)

Today's Hottest Games

1. COL at ARI (80 degrees)

2. CHC at ATL (79 degrees)

3. NYY at BAL (78 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. DET at CWS (55 degrees)

2. LAD at MIL (60 degrees)

3. PHI at STL (63 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 6.51 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -115

·  Houston Astros

Projected: 5.34 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -125

·  Atlanta Braves

Projected: 4.93 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -100

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Detroit Tigers

Projected: 2.58 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -215

·  Chicago White Sox

Projected: 3.18 runs

·  Milwaukee Brewers

Projected: 3.24 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -135

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Yankees at Orioles

Projected: 10.97 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -125

·  Mariners at Astros

Projected: 9.73 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -115

·  Cubs at Braves

Projected: 9.45 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O 100

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Tigers at White Sox

Projected: 6.23 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.0 O -120

·  Phillies at Cardinals

Projected: 7.73 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -105

·  Dodgers at Brewers

Projected: 7.94 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115

 

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

 

Texas Rangers (10-15) vs. Boston Red Sox (16-9)

 

9.0 O/U | TEX 100 | BOS -120

 

Kyle Gibson (THE BAT's No. 147 SP) vs. Martin Perez (THE BAT's No. 201 SP)

Globe Life Field (No. 21 Runs | No. 18 HR | No. 21 K)

70 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 strongest winds today)

 

DATA NUGGETS

·  Kyle Gibson is throwing a cutter 15% more often this season (15% usage) than he did last season (0% usage)

·  Kyle Gibson and his 2.30 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 4.30 thus far in 2021

·  According to THE BAT X, the Red Sox and their 0.331 wOBA have been the #1 luckiest offense in 2021

·  According to THE BAT X, the Rangers and their 0.297 wOBA have been the #5 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Red Sox have 5 players (Christian Arroyo, J.D. Martinez, Bobby Dalbec, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, #1 most in MLB

·  The Rangers have 3 players (Jose Trevino, Adolis Garcia, Nick Solak) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, #3 most in MLB

·  The Rangers (25.2 K%, via THE BAT X) have the #5 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

 

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  We're seeing line movement on the Game Total as it opened at 8.5 Runs, but sharp action has bet the OVER to 9.0 Runs

·  The Boston Red Sox Moneyline is getting lopsided action as it has 87% of the cash and 59% of the bet tickets thus far

·  The most popular prop for the game is Martin Perez's Earned Runs Prop which is currently at Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs ( 100/-135)

·  Year to date Boston Red Sox Run Line has been their most profitable market and are 18-7 to generate 13.25 Units (42% ROI)

 

 

Arizona Diamondbacks (12-12) vs. Colorado Rockies (9-15)

 

8.5 O/U | ARI -155 | COL 135

 

Luke Weaver (THE BAT's No. 167 SP) vs. Antonio Senzatela (THE BAT's No. 149 SP)

Chase Field (No. 15 Runs | No. 25 HR | No. 26 K)

80 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

5 mph across the field

 

DATA NUGGETS

·  Luke Weaver (92.7 mph) has lost nearly a full mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Antonio Senzatela is throwing a slider 13% more often this season (38% usage) than he did last season (25% usage)

·  Luke Weaver has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 4.57 ERA is 0.71 points below his 5.28 FIP

·  According to THE BAT X, the D-Backs and their 0.316 wOBA have been the #2 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Rockies have 4 players (Raimel Tapia, Yonathan Daza, Trevor Story, Garrett Hampson) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, #2 most in MLB

·  The Rockies (28.6 K%, via THE BAT X) have the #1 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Rockies have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30% , according to THE BAT X (Antonio Senzatela, Sam Hilliard, Dom Nunez)

·  Flyball pitchers tend to perform better against flyball hitters, and Antonio Senzatela (53% FB% since 2019) is projected to face 3 of them today

 

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is two-way action on the Game Total as 61% of the bet tickets are on the OVER, but 69% of the cash is on the UNDER

·  This season Arizona Diamondbacks Run Line has been their most profitable market and are 16-8 to generate 5.00 Units (15% ROI)

·  We're seeing line movement on the Game Total as it opened at 9.0 Runs, but sharp action has bet the UNDER to 8.5 Runs

 

 

 

Atlanta Braves (12-12) vs. Chicago Cubs (10-14)

 

9.5 O/U | ATL -135 | CHC 115

 

Bryse Wilson (THE BAT's No. 138 SP) vs. Adbert Alzolay (THE BAT's No. 128 SP)

Mike Estabrook (Extreme Pitchers Umpire - No. 5 in MLB)

Truist Park (No. 10 Runs | No. 21 HR | No. 23 K)

79 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

10 mph across the field

 

DATA NUGGETS

·  Bryse Wilson has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 5.00 ERA is 3.87 points below his 8.87 FIP

·  The Cubs have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the #7 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.295 wOBA going forward

·  The Cubs have 5 players (Javier Baez, David Bote, Jason Heyward, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, #1 most in MLB

·  The Braves have 4 players (Austin Riley, Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna, Ronald Acuna Jr.) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, #3 most in MLB

·  Bryse Wilson may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 60 pitches

·  Flyball pitchers tend to perform better against flyball hitters, and Adbert Alzolay (32% FB% since 2019) is projected to face 2 of them today

 

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  Year to date Chicago Cubs Team Total Under has been their most profitable market and are 19-5 to generate 13.51 Units (50% ROI)

·  On the year, Atlanta Braves Team Total Over has been their most profitable market and are 15-6 to generate 7.56 Units (28% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Austin Riley's Home Runs Prop which is currently at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs ( 430/-980)

 

 

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