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MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Thursday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. LAD - Walker Buehler (No. 33 out of 300)

2. NYM - Joey Lucchesi (No. 85)

3. HOU - Cristian Javier (No. 88)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. SEA - Justin Dunn (No. 286 out of 300)

2. CIN - Jeff Hoffman (No. 271)

3. MIA - Daniel Castano (No. 256)

Today's Hottest Games

1. LAA at HOU (69 degrees)

2. SD at LAD (60 degrees)

3. NYM at CHC (53 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. SEA at BOS (41 degrees)

2. PIT at DET (44 degrees)

3. NYY at CLE (44 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

1. Boston Red Sox

Projected: 6.25 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -196

2. New York Mets

Projected: 6.07 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -129

3. Houston Astros

Projected: 5.63 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -154

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

1. Miami Marlins

Projected: 4.13 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -160

2. Detroit Tigers

Projected: 4.29 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -119

3. Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 4.40 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -119

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

1. Mets at Cubs

Projected: 11.18 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

2. Mariners at Red Sox

Projected: 11.07 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

3. Angels at Astros

Projected: 10.80 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O + 100

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

1. Pirates at Tigers

Projected: 8.69 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -115

2. Marlins at Giants

Projected: 8.86 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -110

3. D-Backs at Reds

Projected: 9.55 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -120

GAMES OF THE DAY

Cleveland Indians (8-8) vs. New York Yankees (6-11)

O/U: 8 | CLE -110 | NYY -110

Aaron Civale (THE BAT's No. 149 SP) vs. Domingo German (THE BAT's No. 125 SP)

Progressive Field (No. 3 runs | No. 13 HR | No. 17 K)

44 degrees (No. 3 coldest today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Aaron Civale is throwing a fastball 21% more often this season (30% usage) than he did last season (9% usage)

·  Aaron Civale is throwing a sinker 17% less often this season (5% usage) than he did last season (22% usage)

·  Aaron Civale and his 2.18 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 4.27 thus far in 2021

·  The Yankees have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 1 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.284 wOBA going forward

·  The Indians have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 7 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.294 wOBA going forward

·  The Indians have four players (Andres Gimenez, Franmil Reyes, Jordan Luplow, Roberto Perez) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  On the year, New York Yankees’ Team Total Under has been their most profitable market and have covered 12-5 to generate + 7.34 Units (39% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Domingo German's Earned runs Prop, which is currently at O/U 2.5 earned runs (+ 115/-155)

·  The Game Total OVER is getting 45% of the bet tickets, but 66% of the total cash wagered indicating perhaps sharp action is on the UNDER

·  Currently, we’re seeing reverse line movement on Cleveland, as they’re getting more money (76%), but the Indians ML has gone in the other direction -115 (opening odds) to -110

Houston Astros (7-10) vs. Los Angeles Angels (9-7)

O/U: 9 | HOU -130 | LAA + 110

Cristian Javier (THE BAT's No. 88 SP) vs. Alex Cobb (THE BAT's No. 103 SP)

Minute Maid Park (No. 24 runs | No. 14 HR | No. 2 K)

69 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Cristian Javier (92.9 mph) has added 1.4 mph to his fastball velocity this season

·  Cobb is throwing a fastball 48% less often this season (0% usage) than he did last season (48% usage)

·  Cobb is throwing a sinker 33% more often this season (33% usage) than he did last season (0% usage)

·  Cobb is throwing a changeup 10% more often this season (45% usage) than he did last season (35% usage)

·  Cobb has been quite unlucky this season, posting a 4.63 ERA despite a 2.17 FIP

·  Cristian Javier and his 2.08 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 4.00 thus far in 2021

·  According to THE BAT X, the Angels and their 0.327 wOBA have been the No. 5 luckiest offense in 2021

·  According to THE BAT X, the Astros and their 0.314 wOBA have been the No. 10 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Astros have three players (Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel, Michael Brantley) with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 most in MLB

·  The Angels have four players (Shohei Ohtani, Jose Iglesias, Mike Trout, Justin Upton) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most popular prop for the game is Anthony Rendon's HR prop which is currently at Over/Under 0.5 Home runs (+ 420/-925)

·  The Angels are getting 54% of the bet tickets and 67% of the total cash wagered

·  On the year, Angels’ Team Total Over has been their most profitable market and have covered 10-6 to generate + 2.47 Units (13% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers (14-4) vs. San Diego Padres (10-10)

7.5 O/U | LAD -165 | SD 150

Walker Buehler (THE BAT's No. 33 SP) vs. Ryan Weathers (THE BAT's No. 144 SP)

Dodger Stadium (No. 11 runs | No. 8 HR | No. 22 K)

60 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Walker Buehler (94.5 mph) has lost 2.0 mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Buehler's fastball spin rate (2649 rpm) has jumped 103 rpm since 2020

·  Ryan Weathers and his 0.00 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 4.23 thus far in 2021

·  Buehler and his 2.00 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 3.57 thus far in 2021

·  According to THE BAT X, the Dodgers and their 0.336 wOBA have been the No. 8 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Dodgers have six players (Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Edwin Rios, Chris Taylor, Will Smith) with a xwOBA in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 most in MLB

·  The Padres have three players (Wil Myers, Trent Grisham, Ha-seong Kim) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 5 most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Dodgers are getting 78% of the bet tickets and 52% of the total cash wagered and is the No. 2 most lopsided game total on the slate today

·  On the year, Los Angeles Dodgers’ ML has been their most profitable market and has gone 14-4 to generate + 6.60 Units (18% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Walker Buehler's earned runs Prop which is currently at O/U 1.5 (-150/+ 115)

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