MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Thursday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. CLE - Shane Bieber (No. 12 out of 351)

2. HOU - Lance McCullers Jr. (No. 28)

3. ATL - Ian Anderson (No. 52)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. ARI - Madison Bumgarner (No. 246 out of 351)

2. BAL - Alex Wells (No. 244)

3. SF - Scott Kazmir (No. 237)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. CHC at PIT - Roberto Ortiz (No. 3 out of 111)

2. SD at LAD - Tripp Gibson (No. 8)

3. MIA at NYM - Nick Mahrley (No. 26)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. ARI at SF - Ramon De Jesus (No. 26 out of 111)

2. DET at MIN - Chad Whitson (No. 33)

3. LAA at TEX - John Bacon (No. 40)

Today's Hottest Games

1. MIL at STL (80 degrees)

2. PHI at ATL (79 degrees)

3. SD at LAD (79 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. NYY at TOR (56 degrees)

2. MIA at NYM (65 degrees)

3. ARI at SF (65 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 6.11 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -130

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 5.31 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O 105

·  Minnesota Twins

Projected: 5.07 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.05 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O 120

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.50 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O 120

·  Texas Rangers

Projected: 3.58 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -115

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Red Sox at Orioles

Projected: 10.28 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -115

·  Padres at Dodgers

Projected: 9.65 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -115

·  Tigers at Twins

Projected: 9.31 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Marlins at Mets

Projected: 6.89 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115

·  Cubs at Pirates

Projected: 7.26 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -120

·  Angels at Rangers

Projected: 7.90 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -105

GAMES OF THE DAY

St. Louis Cardinals (88-70) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (95-63)

O/U: 8.5 | STL -115 | MIL -105

J.A. Happ (THE BAT's No. 226 SP) vs. Brett Anderson (THE BAT's No. 172 SP)

Busch Stadium (No. 28 Runs | No. 24 HR | No. 27 K)

80 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

6 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  J.A. Happ has been throwing a fastball (10 percent increase) far more often in 2021 (54 percent usage) than he did in 2020 (44 percent usage)

·  J.A. Happ is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his huge platoon split

·  Brett Anderson may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 64 pitches

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform worse against Fly ball hitters, and Brett Anderson (57 percent GB percent since 2019) is projected to face four of them today

·  The Cardinals have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K percent over 30 percent , according to THE BAT X (Tyler O'Neill, Matt Carpenter, J.A. Happ)

·  St. Louis boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle percent this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB (Dylan Carlson, Nolan Arenado, Paul DeJong)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has moved toward the UNDER after the Total opened at 9.0 Runs and is now 8.5 Runs

·  The most profitable market for the Milwaukee Brewers has been their Run Line which is 83-70 generating 16.50 Units (9 percent ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the St. Louis Cardinals has been their Moneyline which is 83-68 generating 10.25 Units (5 percent ROI)

·  Paul Goldschmidt's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs ( 320/-590)

Minnesota Twins (71-87) vs. Detroit Tigers (75-83)

O/U: 8.5 | MIN -180 | DET 160

Joe Ryan (THE BAT's No. 67 SP) vs. Tarik Skubal (THE BAT's No. 107 SP)

Chad Whitson (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 33 in MLB)

Target Field (No. 16 Runs | No. 22 HR | No. 19 K)

74 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)

7 mph in from RF (No. 3 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  As an extreme fly ball pitcher (52 percent FB percentage since 2019), Joe Ryan matches up well with Target Field (No. 9 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  While THE BAT projects Joe Ryan's ERA going forward to be 3.91, his actual has been 2.45 ERA, indicating some regression may be in order

·  Tarik Skubal may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 50 pitches

·  Tarik Skubal's fastball (2191 rpm) has lost 231 rpm of spin this season relative to 2020

·  Tarik Skubal's fastball usage (43 percent in 2021, 61 percent in 2020) has decreased 18 percent this season

·  Tarik Skubal is throwing a sinker 13 percent more often this season (13 percent usage) than he did last season (0 percent usage)

·  Tarik Skubal has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against eight opposite-handed hitters today

·  The Twins have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 4 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.317 wOBA going forward

·  The Twins offense has the No. 4 (tie) most hitters in baseball with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or better this year (Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Luis Arraez, Josh Donaldson)

·  The Detroit Tigers's 26.0 projected K percentage (via THE BAT) is the No. 3 most on today's slate of games

·  Detroit boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle percent this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB (Niko Goodrum, Akil Baddoo, Robbie Grossman)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Twins Moneyline has 69 percent of the bet tickets and 83 percent of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The Detroit Tigers Moneyline has been their most profitable market this season and is 75-78 resulting in 26.50 Units (17 percent ROI)

·  This season the Twins Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 81-63 resulting in 12.15 Units (7 percent ROI)

·  Josh Donaldson's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs ( 275/-470) is the most popular prop for the game

Los Angeles Dodgers (102-56) vs. San Diego Padres (78-80)

O/U: 9.0 | LAD -225 | SD 185

Tony Gonsolin (THE BAT's No. 84 SP) vs. Vince Velasquez (THE BAT's No. 191 SP)

Tripp Gibson (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 8 in MLB)

Dodger Stadium (No. 9 Runs | No. 8 HR | No. 22 K)

79 degrees (No. 3 hottest today)

5 mph in from LF (No. 5 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Tony Gonsolin (93.1 mph) has lost 1.5 mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Tony Gonsolin's fastball (2376 rpm) has lost 113 rpm of spin this season relative to 2020

·  Tony Gonsolin has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 3.00 ERA is 1.26 points below his 4.26 FIP

·  Vince Velasquez may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 80 pitches

·  As an extreme fly ball pitcher (39 percent FB percentage since 2019), Vince Velasquez may not be a great fit for the No. 5 HR in baseball, Dodger Stadium, today

·  Fly ball pitchers tend to perform better against Fly ball hitters, and Vince Velasquez (39 percent FB percentage since 2019) is projected to face three of them today

·  The Dodgers are the No. 5 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K percent of 22.2 percent according to THE BAT X

·  The Dodgers offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 1 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Chris Taylor, Will Smith, Justin Turner, Max Muncy)

·  The Padres offense is quite fast; they have the No. 1 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Wil Myers, Fernando Tatis Jr., Trent Grisham, Jake Cronenworth)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Padres Run Line opening price of 1.5 ( 105) has steamed 10 cents and is now 1.5 (-105)

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 81 percent of the bet tickets and 83 percent of the cash is on the Dodgers

·  The Run Line has lopsided action today with 73 percent of the bet tickets and 78 percent of the cash on the Dodgers

·  The most profitable market for the Los Angeles Dodgers has been their Game Total Under which is 78-65 generating 6.90 Units (4 percent ROI)

·  The San Diego Padres Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 79-67 resulting in 5.95 Units (4 percent ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Max Muncy's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs ( 275/-465)

 

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