MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Thursday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. OAK - Sean Manaea (No. 16 out of 341)

2. NYM - Marcus Stroman (No. 47)

3. TOR - Jose Berrios (No. 48)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. STL - Jake Woodford (No. 306 out of 341)

2. MIA - Jesus Luzardo (No. 182)

3. KC - Carlos Hernandez (No. 173)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. TOR at NYY - Doug Eddings (No. 6 out of 111)

2. WSH at ATL - Alex Tosi (No. 34)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. KC at BAL - Mark Carlson (No. 14 out of 111)

2. CWS at OAK - Adrian Johnson (No. 24)

3. NYM at MIA - Chad Whitson (No. 39)

Today's Hottest Games

1. WSH at ATL (77 degrees)

2. LAD at STL (76 degrees)

3. NYM at MIA (72 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. COL at PHI (67 degrees)

2. CWS at OAK (68 degrees)

3. TOR at NYY (69 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.64 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 105

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 5.42 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 105

·  Atlanta Braves

Projected: 5.32 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -100

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.32 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 125

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 3.71 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105

·  Chicago White Sox

Projected: 3.77 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -120

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Blue Jays at Yankees

Projected: 11.05 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

·  Nationals at Braves

Projected: 9.85 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -115

·  Twins at Indians

Projected: 9.52 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Mets at Marlins

Projected: 7.38 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -105

·  Rockies at Phillies

Projected: 8.01 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -105

·  White Sox at Athletics

Projected: 8.16 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -110

GAMES OF THE DAY

Oakland Athletics (75-64) vs. Chicago White Sox (80-59)

O/U: 8.5 | OAK -140 | CWS + 120

Sean Manaea (THE BAT's No. 16 SP) vs. Reynaldo Lopez (THE BAT's No. 150 SP)

Adrian Johnson (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 24 in MLB)

Oakland Coliseum (No. 29 Runs | No. 28 HR | No. 13 K)

68 degrees (No. 2 coldest today)

8 mph out to CF (No. 3 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Thus far in 2021, Sean Manaea's fastball (91.5 mph) has been 1.8 mph faster than it was last season

·  Sean Manaea's fastball usage (0% in 2021, 54% in 2020) has decreased 54% this season

·  Sean Manaea has been throwing a sinker (60% increase) far more often in 2021 (60% usage) than he did in 2020 (0% usage)

·  Reynaldo Lopez's fastball (94.6 mph) is nearly a full mph faster than it was in 2020

·  Reynaldo Lopez's fastball spin rate (2213 rpm) has jumped nearly 100 rpm since 2020

·  Reynaldo Lopez's changeup usage (3% in 2021, 20% in 2020) has decreased 17% this season

·  As an extreme fly ball pitcher (38% FB% since 2019), Reynaldo Lopez matches up well with Oakland Coliseum (No. 8 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Reynaldo Lopez and his 2.08 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 4.50 thus far in 2021

·  The Athletics are the least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 20.4% according to THE BAT X

·  The Athletics offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 1 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Tony Kemp, Jed Lowrie, Matt Chapman, Josh Harrison)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The opening Game Total has shown the most line movement today as it opened at UNDER 9.0 Runs (-115), but has been bet down to UNDER 8.5 (-110)

·  There is two-way action on the Game Total as 81% of the bet tickets are on the UNDER, but 47% of the cash is on the OVER

·  The Oakland Athletics Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 72-66 resulting in + 7.05 Units (4% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Chicago White Sox has been their Run Line which is 71-66 generating + 6.95 Units (4% ROI)

·  Matt Olson's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 300/-530)

Miami Marlins (58-81) vs. New York Mets (70-70)

O/U: 8.0 | MIA + 155 | NYM -170

Jesus Luzardo (THE BAT's No. 182 SP) vs. Marcus Stroman (THE BAT's No. 47 SP)

Chad Whitson (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 39 in MLB)

Marlins Park (No. 27 Runs | No. 29 HR | No. 16 K)

72 degrees (No. 3 hottest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Jesus Luzardo is throwing a fastball 12% more often this season (31% usage) than he did last season (19% usage)

·  Jesus Luzardo is throwing a sinker 13% less often this season (22% usage) than he did last season (35% usage)

·  Jesus Luzardo is throwing a curveball 11% more often this season (24% usage) than he did last season (13% usage)

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform better against Ground ball hitters, and Marcus Stroman (52% GB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today

·  Marcus Stroman's 2.93 ERA is 0.54 points better than his 3.47 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  The Marlins (27.1 K%, via THE BAT X) have the most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  According to THE BAT X, the Marlins and their 0.294 wOBA have been the No. 4 luckiest offense in 2021

·  According to THE BAT X, the Mets and their 0.308 wOBA have been the No. 7 luckiest offense in 2021

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the OVER after the Game Total opened at 7.5 Runs and is now 8.0 Runs

·  The opening Moneyline for the Mets was -155, but is now -170 after it steamed 15 cents

·  The Mets Moneyline has 72% of the bet tickets and 77% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  This season the Mets Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 74-55 resulting in + 12.95 Units (8% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Miami Marlins has been their Game Total Under which is 69-62 generating + 0.35 Units (0% ROI)

·  Marcus Stroman's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105) is the most popular prop for the game

Baltimore Orioles (45-93) vs. Kansas City Royals (62-77)

O/U: 9.0 | BAL -115 | KC -105

John Means (THE BAT's No. 53 SP) vs. Carlos Hernandez (THE BAT's No. 173 SP)

Mark Carlson (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 14 in MLB)

Oriole Park at Camden Yards (No. 6 Runs | No. 7 HR | No. 24 K)

70 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

6 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  John Means' fastball velocity (92.2 mph) has been down 1.2 mph from where it was in 2020 so far this season

·  As an extreme fly ball pitcher (43% FB% since 2019), John Means may not be a great fit for the No. 3 HR in baseball, Oriole Park at Camden Yards, today

·  Carlos Hernandez's 3.57 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 4.61 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  The Orioles (24.8 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 4 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Orioles have five players (Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander, Trey Mancini, Pedro Severino, Ramon Urias) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Kansas City Royals' 21.7 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 3 least on today's slate of games

·  The Royals' 0.299 team wOBA makes them the No. 3 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Royals offense is quite fast; they have the No. 2 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Hunter Dozier, Nicky Lopez, Michael A. Taylor, Whit Merrifield)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Royals Moneyline opened at + 110, but is now -105 and is showing the most line movement on the slate today

·  The Game Total has moved toward the UNDER after the Total opened at 9.5 Runs and is now 9.0 Runs

·  The most profitable market for the Kansas City Royals has been their Team Total Under which is 74-61 generating + 6.99 Units (4% ROI)

·  This season the Orioles Team Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 71-63 resulting in + 0.78 Units (1% ROI)

·  John Means’ strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

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