MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Thursday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

USATSI_15941601

This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. LAD - Max Scherzer (No. 3 out of 349)

2. PHI - Aaron Nola (No. 7)

3. ATL - Charlie Morton (No. 11)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. PIT - Connor Overton (No. 315 out of 349)

2. ARI - Madison Bumgarner (No. 245)

3. BAL - Zac Lowther (No. 216)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. SEA at OAK - Ryan Wills (No. 19 out of 111)

2. LAD at COL - Ed Hickox (No. 24)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. ATL at ARI - Sam Holbrook (No. 8 out of 111)

2. STL at MIL - Carlos Torres (No. 19)

3. SF at SD - Ramon De Jesus (No. 30)

Today's Hottest Games

1. LAD at COL (83 degrees)

2. ATL at ARI (78 degrees)

3. SF at SD (78 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. CWS at CLE (55 degrees)

2. STL at MIL (61 degrees)

3. WSH at CIN (62 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 5.96 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O 105

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.40 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -135

·  Atlanta Braves

Projected: 5.06 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O 105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.16 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -140

·  Cleveland Indians

Projected: 3.31 runs

·  Chicago White Sox

Projected: 3.66 runs

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Dodgers at Rockies

Projected: 10.11 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -105

·  Blue Jays at Twins

Projected: 10.06 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O 100

·  Braves at D-Backs

Projected: 9.11 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -125

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  White Sox at Indians

Projected: 6.97 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O 100

·  Cardinals at Brewers

Projected: 7.90 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -110

·  Giants at Padres

Projected: 8.05 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -110

GAMES OF THE DAY

Milwaukee Brewers (91-61) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (82-69)

O/U: 8.0 | MIL -120 | STL 100

Adrian Houser (THE BAT's No. 116 SP) vs. Adam Wainwright (THE BAT's No. 87 SP)

Carlos Torres (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 19 in MLB)

American Family Field (No. 11 Runs | No. 9 HR | No. 6 K)

61 degrees (No. 3 coldest today)

16 mph out to RF (No. 3 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  American Family Field is baseball's No. 10 best park for home runs, but Adrian Houser's ground ball-heavy skillset (58% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Given that Ground ball pitchers are least effective against Fly ball hitters, Adrian Houser (58% GB% since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with two Fly ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Adam Wainwright has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 2.89 ERA is 0.62 points below his 3.51 FIP

·  The Brewers (25.7 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 2 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  THE BAT X views the Cardinals as the No. 7 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  St. Louis boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB (Paul DeJong, Dylan Carlson, Nolan Arenado)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Cardinals Moneyline has 41% of the cash, but the it's dropped from 105 to 100 resulting in reverse line movement

·  The Game Total has 74% of the bet tickets on the UNDER, but 22% of the cash is on the OVER resulting in two-way action

·  The Moneyline has 55% of the bet tickets on the Cardinals, but 59% of the cash is on the Brewers resulting in two-way action

·  This season the Brewers Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 81-67 resulting in 16.75 Units (9% ROI)

·  This season the Cardinals Team Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 78-65 resulting in 6.12 Units (4% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Paul Goldschmidt's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs ( 400/-850)

Oakland Athletics (82-70) vs. Seattle Mariners (83-69)

O/U: 8.5 | OAK -155 | SEA 135

Chris Bassitt (THE BAT's No. 43 SP) vs. Yusei Kikuchi (THE BAT's No. 123 SP)

Ryan Wills (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 19 in MLB)

Oakland Coliseum (No. 30 Runs | No. 28 HR | No. 13 K)

77 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

5 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Chris Bassitt may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 50 pitches

·  Chris Bassitt and his 3.22 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 3.75 thus far in 2021

·  Given that Ground ball pitchers are most effective against Ground ball hitters, Yusei Kikuchi (48% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with two Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Yusei Kikuchi has a huge platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against eight opposite-handed hitters today

·  The Athletics are the No. 3 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 21.1% according to THE BAT X

·  According to THE BAT X, the Athletics and their 0.314 wOBA have been the No. 4 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Athletics have four players (Matt Chapman, Josh Harrison, Tony Kemp, Jed Lowrie) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Mariners offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 4 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Kyle Seager, Abraham Toro, Dylan Moore)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The OVER has 76% of the cash and 63% of the bet tickets resulting in a lopsided handle for the Game Total

·  This season the Mariners Moneyline has been their most profitable market and is 82-68 resulting in 24.75 Units (15% ROI)

·  The Oakland Athletics Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 77-74 resulting in 5.15 Units (3% ROI)

·  Matt Olson's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs ( 305/-550) is the most popular prop for the game

Los Angeles Angels (72-80) vs. Houston Astros (91-61)

O/U: 8.5 | LAA 150 | HOU -165

Alex Cobb (THE BAT's No. 71 SP) vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (THE BAT's No. 29 SP)

Chad Whitson (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 38 in MLB)

Angel Stadium (No. 16 Runs | No. 10 HR | No. 9 K)

71 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)

6 mph out to CF (No. 5 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Alex Cobb may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 81 pitches

·  Alex Cobb is throwing a fastball 45% less often this season (3% usage) than he did last season (48% usage)

·  Alex Cobb is throwing a sinker 43% more often this season (43% usage) than he did last season (0% usage)

·  Angel Stadium is baseball's No. 7 best park for home runs, but Alex Cobb's ground ball-heavy skillset (54% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Given that Ground ball pitchers are least effective against Fly ball hitters, Alex Cobb (54% GB% since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with two Fly ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Alex Cobb has been quite unlucky this season, posting a 3.59 ERA despite a 2.64 FIP

·  Lance McCullers Jr. is throwing a slider 26% more often this season (26% usage) than he did last season (0% usage)

·  Lance McCullers Jr. is throwing a curveball 14% less often this season (24% usage) than he did last season (38% usage)

·  Angel Stadium is baseball's No. 7 best park for home runs, but Lance McCullers Jr.'s ground ball-heavy skillset (56% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  The Angels (25.2 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 3 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Astros (20.7 K%, via THE BAT X) have the least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  According to THE BAT X, the Astros and their 0.339 wOBA have been the No. 2 luckiest offense in 2021

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The opening Run Line for the Los Angeles Angels was 1.5 (-105), but is now 1.5 (-115) after it steamed 10 cents

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 77% of the bet tickets and 71% of the cash on the Astros

·  The most profitable market for the Houston Astros has been their Game Total Over which is 80-61 generating 13.10 Units (8% ROI)

·  The Los Angeles Angels Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 76-65 resulting in 3.75 Units (2% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Lance McCullers Jr.'s Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145/ 110)

 

back to news

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

The Lombardi Line: Bookmakers love parleys, when playing them, you want a mix of favorites and underdogs.

Pro Football Blitz: When you back teams on the raod you want a good running team, when you back teams at home you want a good passing team. With teams on the road usually the underdog, you want a team that can control time of possession like the Tennessee Titans.

 

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Shaun King: Eagles -6.5 vs Jaguars

Brendan Gaughan: Brad Keselowski Top 3 +600

View new sortable Picks at a Glance page for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Screen_Shot_2022-09-30_at_6.23.35_PM

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

Close