MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Thursday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. PHI - Aaron Nola (No. 10 out of 344)

2. SF - Logan Webb (No. 22)

3. BOS - Eduardo Rodriguez (No. 29)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. WSH - Paolo Espino (No. 313 out of 344)

2. COL - Chi Chi Gonzalez (No. 285)

3. PIT - Mitch Keller (No. 241)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. CLE at KC - Brian Gorman (No. 15 out of 111)

2. BOS at TB - Chris Guccione (No. 35)

3. MIA at NYM - Lance Barrett (No. 37)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. PHI at WSH - John Bacon (No. 37 out of 111)

Today's Hottest Games

1. CLE at KC (81 degrees)

2. ATL at COL (79 degrees)

3. OAK at DET (74 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. MIL at SF (59 degrees)

2. PHI at WSH (68 degrees)

3. MIA at NYM (71 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Atlanta Braves

Projected: 6.90 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O + 110

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 6.02 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 100

·  Oakland Athletics

Projected: 5.39 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.29 runs

·  Washington Nationals

Projected: 3.34 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -115

·  Milwaukee Brewers

Projected: 3.78 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 110

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Braves at Rockies

Projected: 12.92 runs

·  Athletics at Tigers

Projected: 9.33 runs

·  Indians at Royals

Projected: 8.71 runs

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Marlins at Mets

Projected: 7.46 runs

·  Pirates at Cubs

Projected: 7.93 runs

·  Red Sox at Rays

Projected: 8.00 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -110

GAMES OF THE DAY

San Francisco Giants (84-49) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (82-52)

O/U: 8.0 | SF -180 | MIL + 160

Logan Webb (THE BAT's No. 22 SP) vs. Eric Lauer (THE BAT's No. 127 SP)

Oracle Park (No. 17 Runs | No. 27 HR | No. 11 K)

59 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

7 mph out to LF (No. 3 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Logan Webb is throwing a fastball 22% less often this season (11% usage) than he did last season (33% usage)

·  Logan Webb is throwing a sinker 23% more often this season (36% usage) than he did last season (13% usage)

·  Logan Webb has been throwing a slider (11% increase) far more often in 2021 (27% usage) than he did in 2020 (16% usage)

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform better against Ground ball hitters, and Logan Webb (56% GB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today

·  Eric Lauer's 3.39 ERA is 0.92 points better than his 4.31 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  The Giants offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 3 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Brandon Belt, Darin Ruf, Brandon Crawford, Kris Bryant)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most line movement today is the San Francisco Giants Moneyline as it opened at -155 before dropping to -180

·  The most popular prop for the game is Logan Webb's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)

Kansas City Royals (59-73) vs. Cleveland Indians (66-64)

O/U: | KC | CLE

Mike Minor (THE BAT's No. 74 SP) vs. Triston McKenzie (THE BAT's No. 92 SP)

Brian Gorman (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 15 in MLB)

Kauffman Stadium (No. 16 Runs | No. 30 HR | No. 29 K)

81 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

10 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Triston McKenzie's fastball (2240 rpm) has lost nearly 100 rpm of spin this season relative to 2020

·  As an extreme fly ball pitcher (42% FB% since 2019), Triston McKenzie matches up well with Kauffman Stadium (No. 1 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Fly ball pitchers tend to perform worse against Ground ball hitters, and Triston McKenzie (42% FB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today

·  Triston McKenzie is likely a better pitcher than his 4.83 ERA indicates, given his 4.20 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  The Royals are the No. 5 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 23.2% according to THE BAT X

·  The Royals have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 3 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.300 wOBA going forward

·  The Royals have three players (Hunter Dozier, Whit Merrifield, Michael A. Taylor) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Indians (21.5 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 2 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  Cleveland boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Sprint Speed this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB (Myles Straw, Amed Rosario, Bradley Zimmer)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most popular prop for the game is Mike Minor's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)

Colorado Rockies (61-72) vs. Atlanta Braves (70-62)

O/U: 12.5 | COL + 142 | ATL -155

Chi Chi Gonzalez (THE BAT's No. 285 SP) vs. Touki Toussaint (THE BAT's No. 158 SP)

Coors Field (No. 1 Runs | No. 11 HR | No. 30 K)

79 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

6 mph out to CF (No. 2 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Chi Chi Gonzalez may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 81 pitches

·  Chi Chi Gonzalez has a reverse platoon split, making him less effective against same-handed hitters, which he's projected to face six of today

·  Touki Toussaint has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 3.60 ERA is 1.30 points below his 4.90 FIP

·  The Rockies are the No. 4 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 26.5% according to THE BAT X

·  The Rockies' 0.315 team wOBA makes them the No. 6 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Rockies have three players (Garrett Hampson, Trevor Story, Raimel Tapia) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Braves (26.3 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 5 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Braves' 0.322 team wOBA makes them the No. 4 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Braves offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 1 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley, Jorge Soler, Adam Duvall, Freddie Freeman)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most popular prop for the game is Freddie Freeman's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 325/-595)

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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