MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Thursday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. HOU - Framber Valdez (No. 26 out of 346)

2. SF - Kevin Gausman (No. 29)

3. COL - German Marquez (No. 39)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. BAL - Chris Ellis (No. 327 out of 346)

2. DET - Tyler Alexander (No. 290)

3. SD - Ross Detwiler (No. 271)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. COL at ATL - Adam Hamari (No. 11 out of 111)

2. CIN at PIT - Jim Wolf (No. 16)

3. CHC at PHI - Jeremy Riggs (No. 34)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. NYY at BAL - Carlos Torres (No. 17 out of 111)

2. SD at SF - James Hoye (No. 20)

3. HOU at TEX - David Rackley (No. 33)

Today's Hottest Games

1. OAK at KC (83 degrees)

2. NYY at BAL (79 degrees)

3. LAA at CWS (76 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. SD at SF (57 degrees)

2. COL at ATL (68 degrees)

3. HOU at TEX (70 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 7.18 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O 115

·  Oakland Athletics

Projected: 5.60 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O 110

·  Tampa Bay Rays

Projected: 4.90 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Texas Rangers

Projected: 3.17 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O 115

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 3.54 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -100

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.99 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O 100

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Yankees at Orioles

Projected: 11.53 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -110

·  Athletics at Royals

Projected: 10.43 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -115

·  Angels at White Sox

Projected: 9.44 runs

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Rockies at Braves

Projected: 7.70 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -110

·  Astros at Rangers

Projected: 7.96 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O 100

·  Padres at Giants

Projected: 8.81 runs

GAMES OF THE DAY

Kansas City Royals (66-79) vs. Oakland Athletics (78-67)

O/U: 9.5 | KC 105 | OAK -125

Daniel Lynch (THE BAT's No. 213 SP) vs. Paul Blackburn (THE BAT's No. 154 SP)

Nestor Ceja (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 37 in MLB)

Kauffman Stadium (No. 17 Runs | No. 30 HR | No. 29 K)

83 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

11 mph out to LF (No. 1 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Daniel Lynch is projected to face eight opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his huge platoon split

·  The Royals are the No. 5 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 23.2% according to THE BAT X

·  The Royals' 0.302 team wOBA makes them the No. 5 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Athletics are the least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 21.3% according to THE BAT X

·  The Athletics offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 2 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Jed Lowrie, Matt Chapman, Josh Harrison, Tony Kemp)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 78% of the bet tickets and 68% of the cash on the Athletics

·  The Oakland Athletics Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 75-69 resulting in 7.60 Units (4% ROI)

·  The Kansas City Royals Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 69-61 resulting in 2.40 Units (2% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Matt Olson's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs ( 310/-555)

Tampa Bay Rays (90-56) vs. Detroit Tigers (70-76)

O/U: 9.0 | TB -220 | DET 180

Tropicana Field (No. 29 Runs | No. 19 HR | No. 3 K)

72 degrees (No. 4 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Dietrich Enns and his 3.38 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 5.15 thus far in 2021

·  Tyler Alexander's large platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face seven of them today

·  The Rays are the No. 3 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 22.4% according to THE BAT X

·  THE BAT X views the Rays as the No. 6 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Rays have three players (Brandon Lowe, Austin Meadows, Mike Zunino) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Detroit Tigers' 24.8 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 4 most on today's slate of games

·  THE BAT X views the Tigers as the No. 1 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  Detroit boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB (Robbie Grossman, Niko Goodrum, Akil Baddoo)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 69% of the bet tickets and 59% of the cash on the Rays

·  The Detroit Tigers Moneyline has been their most profitable market this season and is 70-73 resulting in 22.50 Units (15% ROI)

·  The Tampa Bay Rays Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 83-59 resulting in 21.05 Units (11% ROI)

·  Nelson Cruz's Total Bases Prop is priced at Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115) is the most popular prop for the game

Texas Rangers (54-91) vs. Houston Astros (85-60)

O/U: 9.0 | TEX 190 | HOU -230

Glenn Otto Jr. (THE BAT's No. 81 SP) vs. Framber Valdez (THE BAT's No. 26 SP)

David Rackley (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 33 in MLB)

Globe Life Field (No. 21 Runs | No. 18 HR | No. 21 K)

70 degrees (No. 3 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Given that Ground ball pitchers are most effective against Ground ball hitters, Framber Valdez (65% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with four Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Framber Valdez has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 3.26 ERA is 0.73 points below his 3.99 FIP

·  The projected lineup for the Rangers holds three extremely strikeout-prone bats today: DJ Peters, Adolis Garcia, Leody Taveras. THE BAT projects all for a DJ Peters, Adolis Garcia, Leody Taveras underlying K%

·  The Astros are the No. 2 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 21.7% according to THE BAT X

·  According to THE BAT X, the Astros and their 0.336 wOBA have been the No. 5 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Astros have four players (Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa, Kyle Tucker) with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Astros Run Line has 98% of the bet tickets and 69% of the cash making it the most lopsided action on the slate

·  This game has the most lopsided Moneyline today as 89% of the bet tickets and 72% of the cash is on the Astros

·  The Houston Astros Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 76-61 resulting in 9.10 Units (6% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Framber Valdez's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)

 

 

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